Patriots-Chargers preview: What to watch for Drake Maye vs. Justin Herbert
Two to go.
The Patriots will kick off their penultimate game of the season against a Chargers team that can clinch a playoff bid with a win Saturday.
The Pats are slated as 4.5-point underdogs against Los Angeles, which escaped New England with a 6-0 win last season. Since then, first-year coach Jim Harbaugh has steeled the Bolts into one of the toughest, most fundamentally sound teams in the league. As the Patriots work to patch their own fundamentals, they’ll be trying to match last year’s win total with their fourth victory of the season.
If they’re to upset the Chargers, Drake Maye must out-duel Justin Hebert, his most common pro comparison as a draft prospect. Can he do it?
Here’s what else to watch for in Foxboro:
When the Patriots run
Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson fumbled last week in Buffalo, but if history is any indication, both will be asked to carry the load again against Los Angeles.
Stevenson and Gibson are too valuable to the offense to be sidelined, both as runners and receivers. But a start for Gibson isn’t out of the question.
Not only did Jerod Mayo not rule out the possibility this week in a press conference, Gibson took more snaps than Stevenson in Buffalo. He’s also averaging 3.99 yards after contact, which could be critical against a strong tackling defense like the Chargers. Stevenson is averaging more than five yards per carry after the bye, but seems to have worn down this season while tracking for a new career-high in rush attempts. With six more carries, he’ll get there.
When the Patriots pass
As always, the Patriots’ passing game starts with protection. But there’s one wrinkle there this week: a question mark at center.
With Ben Brown in concussion protocol, Cole Strange and midseason addition Lecitus Smith took all the starting snaps in practice this week. Strange, who hasn’t played center before in an NFL game, sounded eager for the opportunity this week. Otherwise, the biggest problems will be on the edges handling Chargers outside linebackers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.
Downfield, the Pats will face tough matchups across the board, none tougher than Derwin James. The All-Pro safety plays all over Los Angeles’ zone-heavy defense, disguising blitzes and coverages. Maye will need to steer clear of James, while looking for his favorite targets in Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte.
Los Angeles Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. jogs back to the locker room before an NFL game against the Denver Broncos on Thursday, Dec. 19 in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
“You talk about Derwin James; one snap, he could be in the middle of the field. The next snap, he could be blitzing off the edge,” Mayo said this week. “So, I think he does a good job just putting those guys in positions to go out there and maximize their athletic ability.”
When the Chargers run
Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins is set to return Saturday after a stint on injured reserve and figures to provide a big lift to LA’s ground game. He’s rushed for 766 yards and eight touchdowns this season, a powerful runner capable of breaking tackles in tight quarters.
But whoever is carrying the ball may not matter if the Patriots’ can’t fix their problems with tackling, run fits and fundamentals. Last week at Buffalo, failures at the defensive line and linebacker levels allowed a 46-yard touchdown run and game-sealing first-down run in the final minutes. Multiple linebackers, including Jahlani Tavai and Sione Takitaki, are questionable this week for the Patriots.
More than most battlegrounds Saturday, the Pats’ run defense against the Chargers’ rushing attack should be a strong indicator of who’s winning the war.
“As the weather changes and they’re coming out this way, I expect them to try to run the ball, especially how we looked last week,” Mayo said. “So, that’s the challenge to the players that, look— they’re going to come in here, it’s no secret. They’re going to want to run the ball, and we have to stop them and make them a one-dimensional team.”
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When the Chargers pass
It’s all about Ladd McConkey.
The second-round rookie leads all other Chargers pass-catchers by more than 400 yards. He can operate inside the slot and threaten deep outside.
“A guy that can get open versus man-to-man coverage. Look, he’s playing well right now. He also does a good job finding space in the zone coverages. He’s definitely a player you got to keep your eye on,” Maye said.
Last week, Jonathan Jones successfully shadowed Buffalo’s top target, Khalil Shakir, who profiles similarly to McConkey. That allowed Christian Gonzalez to blanket the Bills’ bigger receivers who stood 6-foot-3 or taller. That plan, rooted in a man-coverage rate north of 60%, might also apply this week, with LA’s No. 2 and No. 3 receivers, Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer both being bigger, big-play threats.
Either way, it will be a tall task against Justin Herbert (3,243 yards, 18 TDs, 3 INTs), who hasn’t thrown a pick without being pressured. As of late, the Patriots rank among the worst pressure defenses in the league.
Game pick
Chargers 30, Patriots 20