Cerullo: What if Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell are ready?

When you’re dealing with prospects it can be easy to get carried away. Sky-high expectations often don’t align with reality, and even the best players sometimes endure growing pains as they adjust to the majors.

Look no further than Dustin Pedroia in 2006, or Jackson Holliday with the Orioles last spring.

Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell shouldn’t be any exception. The top two Red Sox prospects enjoyed outstanding 2024 seasons and will likely make their MLB debut sometime in 2025, but counting on rookies is always a gamble. That’s why the Red Sox still have a responsibility to bolster their roster with proven big league performers, putting the onus on the young players to force themselves into the equation.

Still, given Anthony and Campbell’s immense talent, it’s worth wondering if we’re somehow underrating their potential impact.

While the discussion surrounding the Red Sox this offseason has rightly focused on which outside additions the club should make, Boston’s best-case scenario still involves one or both of Anthony and Campbell playing significant roles. Even if the Red Sox fill their holes in the outfield and at second base, injuries happen and things change. Sooner or later these two are going to get their chance.

If their track record is any indication, they could very well take that shot and run with it.

Anthony, now regarded as the No. 1 prospect in MLB according to Baseball America, has dominated every level he’s played since being drafted out of high school in 2022. Last year he became the youngest Red Sox minor leaguer to reach Triple-A in decades, and at 20 years old he immediately established himself as one of the best players at that level.

Anthony’s conventional stats were great. He batted .344 with three home runs, 20 RBI, five stolen bases, a .983 OPS and as many walks (31) as strikeouts (31) in 35 games. More encouraging though were his under-the-hood metrics, which graded as elite and should be a better predictor of big league success than a bunch of hits against Triple-A pitching.

Roman Anthony stormed his way through MiLB and made a complete joke of AAA at just 20 Years old

He is the #1 Prospect in Baseball pic.twitter.com/X4SJdQQIpz

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) December 18, 2024

It was a similar story for Campbell, who just put together one of the most outstanding minor league seasons in recent memory.

Originally a fourth-round pick out of Georgia Tech, Campbell wasn’t on anyone’s radar last spring but by season’s end had swept nearly every top minor league award while establishing himself as a top-25 prospect in the game. He posted video game numbers at High-A, Double-A and Triple-A — batting .330 with 20 homers, 24 stolen bases and a .997 OPS across all levels — and like Anthony demonstrated a skillset that has scouts drooling.

“Campbell took to Boston’s bat speed training and it’s yielded some of the best offensive production in baseball,” Baseball America writes. “Campbell has a strong combination of bat-to-ball skills, power, speed and defensive versatility that has seen him climb three levels of the minors in 2024.”

The most promising thing about these two is that it isn’t just prospect enthusiasts who are buying into the hype. Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski, whose ZiPS projection system is considered one of the best in the industry, recently released his projections for the 2025 Red Sox. He has Campbell and Anthony as Boston’s third and fourth-best offensive players respectively, behind only Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran.

Could you imagine?

Expectations should be measured and no one should panic if things don’t start off smoothly, but some guys just have it, and we shouldn’t discount the possibility the Red Sox might have a couple of real-deal studs on their hands.

Look at Paul Skenes, who was pretty much the best pitcher in baseball the moment he reached the majors. Or at Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll, who ranked No. 1 and 2 on Baseball America’s 2023 Preseason Top 100 Prospects list. Not only did they go on to win Rookie of the Year in their respective leagues, but both finished top-10 in the MVP vote too.

The Red Sox shouldn’t count on a similar breakout, and ideally they’ll plan as if neither will contribute in the majors this year at all. But if Anthony and Campbell are ready — right now — then the Red Sox could be closer to a return to relevance than even the most optimistic among us could have imagined.

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