Sunday should have been the Patriots’ toughest game of the season.

They confronted a Super Bowl contender with a history of beating them handily.

They played in a frigid, unforgiving road environment.

And with three weeks left and the playoffs long out of the picture, a massive gap in motivation separated them from the Bills.

But instead of getting pummeled like the 14-point underdogs they were, the Pats produced their best half of football this season. Drake Maye directed consecutive touchdown drives to start, and Jerod Mayo’s defense intercepted Josh Allen. Then, miraculously, the halftime score read: Patriots 14, Bills 7.

Of course, it all crumbled from there. Turnovers and porous run defense will do that to you.

But if the Patriots can replicate some version of Sunday’s performance — a massive, Christmas tree-sized “if” — they should feel confident about stealing a win down the stretch.

Not just because Buffalo is likely to lay down its arms in Week 18, assuming the AFC’s No. 1 seed is out of reach. But the Chargers, who visit this weekend, suffer from similar problems. The Chargers’ receivers can’t unstick from man coverage, and the Patriots plastered the Bills receivers in man-to-man more than 60% of the time.

Los Angeles’ defense is also regressing, having allowed 27 or more points in four of their last six games. So between this Saturday and next Sunday, the Pats have given themselves reason to believe they can write the ending they want. Again, that’s if, if, Mayo’s Pats can maintain a similar level of performance; which can be an awful big ask for a team that has often been its toughest opponent.

Here’s what else the film revealed about the Patriots’ latest loss:

Drake Maye

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) passes against the Buffalo Bills during the second quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, in Orchard Park, N.Y.. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

22-of-36 for 261 yards, 2 TDs, INT

Accurate throw percentage: 73.3%

Under pressure: 6-of-13 for 57 yards, 2 sacks, 10 rushing yards

Against the blitz: 6-of-14 for 67 yards, INT

Behind the line: 5-of-5 for 52 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 14-of-17 for 138 yards

10-19 yards downfield: 2-of-6 for 31 yards, TD, INT

20+ yards downfield: 2-of-4 for 53 yards, TD

Notes: Like his team, Maye petered out as the game wore on.

He finished 0-of-4 with a sack on his last five dropbacks under pressure. He tossed a third-quarter interception inside the red zone to snuff out a scoring opportunity; his seventh straight game with a pick. Maye later threw behind Rhamondre Stevenson on a lateral that led to the Bills’ eventual game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Overall, the Bills’ pressure — which arrived in waves on his final drive — seemed to have a compound effect on Maye. He converted a couple third-and-longs in the first half against the blitz and faced extra rushers on most of his initial dropbacks, while marching to consecutive touchdowns. That success seemed to spook Buffalo out of traditional blitz pressure and force them to pivot to more simulated pressures (four-man rushes that replace a dropping defensive lineman with a second- or third-level pressure after presenting blitz pre-snap).

But by the end, the Bills found success with both calls, and Maye had more problems finding open receivers than he had earlier in the game. Maye also missed a couple open throws, from the interception meant for Austin Hooper and an underthrown dig throw for Kayshon Boutte that would have resulted in an explosive play. His accurate throw percentage ranked as the second-lowest of his last five games.

Maye’s creativity flashed, as you’d expect; specifically on a spectacular 22-yard completion to Boutte fired off-platform, and a few scrambles. His best pass, of course, also found Boutte: the 28-yard touchdown that opened the game. All together, a mediocre game from Maye that featured more costly mistakes than usual.

Critical areas

Turnovers: Patriots 3, Bills 1

Explosive play rate: Patriots 8.8%, Bills 8.6%

Success rate: Patriots 48.5%, Bills 51.7%

Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 2-3, Bills 1-1

Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 23.5%, Bills 37.2%

Offense

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) carries the ball for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills during the second quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, in Orchard Park, N.Y.. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 49% of snaps in 12 personnel, 39% snaps in 11 personnel, 6% of snaps in 13 personnel, 3% of snaps in 21 personnel, 3% of snaps in 22 personnel.***

Personnel production: 51.5% success rate in 11 personnel, 50% success rate in 12 personnel, 0% success rate in 13 personnel, 50% success rate in 21 personnel, 0% success rate in 22 personnel.

First-down down play-calls: 55% pass (65% success rate), 45% run (50% success rate)

Play-action rate: 20.9%

Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt found an instant groove, mixing a high rate of play-action with running back and tight end screens to slow Buffalo’s pass rush. He also spammed outside zone runs, picking up gains of five, six and 14 yards on the first two drives alone. That steady diet of traditional zone-blocking set up a pin-and-pull run that Rhamondre Stevenson followed to his 14-yard touchdown in the second quarter.

Arguably best of all, Van Pelt finally weaponized Maye as a runner; calling four designed runs for him between a couple zone-reads and quarterback sneaks.

Now, the swing pass that led to Maye’s lost lateral was among Van Pelt’s worst calls of the season. But the play-call can’t be criticized separately from its execution. Maye threw behind Stevenson, right tackle Demontrey Jacobs missed a cut block that allowed Stevenson to get clobbered immediately, and Stevenson failed to reel in a pass that hit him in the hands. All bad.

But later, Van Pelt’s run calls on the final series were maddening. Just like his offense, a better-than-expected day for Van Pelt on balance, but not good enough.

Player stats

New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (9) makes a touchdown catch against New England Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers (5) during the first quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, in Orchard Park, N.Y.. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Broken tackles: RB Antonio Gibson 5, RB Rhamondre Stevenson 3, QB Drake Maye, WR Kayshon Boutte

Pressure allowed: OT Demontrey Jacobs 5 (QB hit, 4 hurries), Maye 3 (2 sacks, hurry), Team 3 (3 hurries), LG Layden Robinson 2 (QB hit, hurry), Stevenson (hurry), Gibson (hurry)

Run stuffs allowed: Team 3, C Ben Brown, TE Hunter Henry

Drops: N/A

Notes

Three turnovers. That’s the simple story of the second half that buried the Patriots. Drake Maye made the Bills pay for their high-pressure approach until three Patriots giveaways led to 10 Buffalo points, including his interception which can be chalked up to a bad throw and compromised footwork.
In the third quarter, Stevenson also committed his seventh fumble this season, the most by an NFL running back since 2019. Stevenson’s lack of ball security, particularly against the backdrop of his year-long struggles and the Patriots’ ongoing upset bid, was a major disappointment. Unacceptable.
Stevenson has also quietly been the Pats’ second-best back since the beginning of November. Antonio Gibson, who also fumbled, again forced more missed tackles than Stevenson versus the Bills. It may be time for Gibson to start on Saturday.
One hat tip to Stevenson: he showed expert patience on the outside zone runs that spurred the Patriots’ initial drives, and powered through poor Buffalo tackle attempts on his 14-yard touchdown.
A credit to Gibson: his blitz pickup was terrific. Look no further than the linebacker he upended after aborting a play-action fake on Maye’s 22-yarder to Kayshon Boutte in the third quarter.
Boutte’s 28-yard touchdown catch was a function of outstanding concentration, phenomenal ball placement and good protection. Boutte still isn’t separating — most receivers aren’t — but Maye clearly trusts him more downfield.
The coaching staff has zero trust in rookies Ja’Lynn Polk (three snaps) or Javon Baker (eight). Even the snaps they do see are simple plays.
Polk and Baker shared the field on a third-and-9 snap in the first quarter, when Van Pelt called an all-curls concept. All the receivers ran straight upfield, stopped and turned. Maye scrambled for a first down.
Nice bounce-back game for left tackle Vederian Lowe, who posted a clean sheet along with right guard Mike Onwenu. Though Onwenu looked like he missed an assignment on the stuffed third-and-1 run where Gibson fumbled in the second quarter before the Patriots called for a fake punt.
Rough outing for right tackle Demontrey Jacobs, who allowed three pressures in the first quarter alone. Bills edge rusher Von Miller toyed with Jacobs.

Defense

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) carries the ball into the end zone against New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez (0) for a touchdown against the during the second quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, in Orchard Park, N.Y.. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 36% three-corner nickel package, 21% dime, 17% three-safety nickel, 17% base, 9% dollar.****

Coverage breakdown: 63% man, 37% zone

Blitz rate: 20.9%

Blitz efficacy: 57% offensive success rate and 4.7 yards per play allowed

Like all of the Patriots’ best defensive performances this season, the foundation of Sunday’s plan started with man coverage.

Defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington dialed up man-to-man on more than 60% of Buffalo’s passing snaps, trusting Christian Gonzalez and Co. to hold up downfield in single coverage. They did. By extension, those cornerbacks — who allowed one combined catch in man-to-man — bought time for a struggling pass rush to reach and affect Josh Allen.

Half of the Patriots’ pressures were made possible because Allen was forced to move past his second read (think coverage sacks, but hits and hurries).

That allowed Covington to blitz sparingly against Allen, save for third-and-long and red-zone situations; a wise move considering Allen’s 121.3 passer rating versus the blitz this season. Covington also deployed lighter personnel than recent weeks, sending out dime packages on second-and-long and more “Longhorn” personnel with core special teamer Brenden Schooler as a QB spy and edge-rusher. The Patriots trotted out base defense (four defensive backs) on just five snaps before the final drive.

Despite ripping off a 46-yard touchdown against base personnel in the first half, the Bills curiously didn’t hammer the Pats’ run defense until they wanted to kill clock late. That decision, plus a simple passing game plan, was a head-scratcher from Buffalo’s perspective; especially considering the Bills ran nine times for 86 yards and a touchdown with six O-linemen on the field.

Player stats

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) fumbles the ball against the New England Patriots during the third quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, in Orchard Park, N.Y.. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

Interception: S Marte Mapu

Forced fumble: CB Jonathan Jones, Mapu

Pressure: DL Jeremiah Pharms Jr. 3 (sack, QB hit, hurry), Team 3 (3 hurries) OLB Yannick Ngakoue (hurry), Mapu (hurry)

Run stuffs: Team 5, DL Daniel Ekuale

Pass deflections: CB Alex Austin, LB Christian Elliss, Mapu, Jones

Missed tackles: S Kyle Dugger 2, OLB Anfernee Jennings 2, Mapu 2, DL Jeremiah Pharms Jr., CB Alex Austin, LB Christian Elliss, DL Daniel Ekuale, DL Eric Johnson, DL Davon Godchaux

Notes

The Bills vaulted themselves back into the game and sealed it with the same play: outside zone left. Meaning, the Patriots’ run defense remains an Achilles heel.
Buffalo running back James Cook ripped off his 46-yard touchdown in the second quarter cutting back through interior gaps lost by defensive linemen Jeremiah Pharms and linebacker Sione Takiaki. Later, he went right around an edge Keion White failed to set, allowing a 12-yard gain and a first down that opened the game’s final drive.
Even without Cook’s long touchdown, the Pats allowed the Bills 4.7 yards per carry and a first down on more than 30% of their hand-offs. Subpar play at off-ball linebacker and on the edge were often to blame, plus rotational linemen like Pharms Jr. and Eric Johnson.
Specifically, Anfernee Jennings missed two tackles and got pushed out of his gap on a 25-yard run that opened the third quarter, where off-ball linebacker Christian Elliss was asked to man the edge.
Though, credit is due to those same edge defenders for containing Josh Allen as a scrambler. Allen only darted outside a few times, most often exploiting soft edges left by White and Yannick Ngakoue. That containment allowed the Pats to run as much man-to-man as they did.
Again, not enough can be said about the play of the Patriots’ cornerbacks. Christian Gonzalez allowed zero catches on two targets, and Alex Austin and Jonathan Jones yielded one apiece. Austin played a season-high 43 snaps and deserves more time, even after Marcus Jones returns.
Jonathan Jones effectively shadowed Buffalo’s leading receiver, Khalil Shakir, and dominated that matchup. His forced fumble after allowing his only catch was a highlight.
Kyle Dugger joined Gonzalez as the only Patriots to play 100% of the team’s defensive snaps. Dugger still isn’t himself, missing two tackles and allowing several catches in coverage. He remains a weak link there, especially in man.
But shout-out to the dusted-off Marte Mapu. After being ruled a healthy scratch for two of the last three games, he finished with five tackles, a forced fumble, an interception and a pass breakup. Mapu’s decision to run his interception out of the end zone was regrettable, but getting this level of play, especially in man coverage, was a boon for this secondary.
Again, little to no pass rush. The Patriots’ coverage fed pressure on Josh Allen, who often had all day to throw. Per Pro Football Focus, 23 of Allen’s 34 dropbacks lasted longer than 2.5 seconds, and his average snap-to-throw time hit 3.51 seconds.
Buffalo ran several quick-trigger plays to get its running backs and receivers in space. That sent a message: we think your tackling stinks. The Pats missed a dozen tackles.

Special teams

One of the special teams highlights of the season was the successful fake punt rookie safety Dell Pettus carried out, covering two yards on fourth-and-1 late in the second quarter.
Unfortunately for the Patriots, that fake led to just three more plays and two minutes killed off the clock before the executed real punt. Second-year punter Bryce Baringer averaged 44.3 yards per boot, and the Pats didn’t allow a punt return.
Antonio Gibson and Alex Erickson stood back on kick return, where Gibson opened the game with a 42-yarder; the most notable return of the game.
Struggling kicker Joey Slye did not attempt a field goal.

Studs

CB Jonathan Jones

New England Patriots cornerback Jonathan Jones, right, breaks up a pass intended for Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir during the second half of an NFL football game in Orchard Park, N.Y., Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

The veteran corner forced a fumble and broke up a pass around four tackles. He was one of the best players on the field Sunday.

CB Christian Gonzalez

Gonzalez didn’t allow a single catch in man-to-man coverage. In fact, Josh Allen hardly looked his way.

Duds

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Seven fumbles this season, the most by a running back in the past four NFL seasons. And that doesn’t include the backwards lateral that clanged off his hands and led to Buffalo’s game-winning touchdown.

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S Kyle Dugger

He’s been limited most of the season by an ankle injury, but Dugger still allowed four catches and whiffed on two tackles. Here’s hoping he rediscovers his form in 2025.

RT Demontrey Jacobs

The worst pass-protector on the field Sunday also committed two false start penalties. Can’t have it.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. 

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six; dollar defense = seven.