Lucas: How will the Hamas hostage crisis play out as Biden leaves and Trump takes over

President Harry Truman had it right.

He said, “It’s amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit.”

Let’s see how Truman’s “Doctrine on Credit” holds up when it comes to the release of hostages held by Hamas terrorists in Gaza.

Outgoing President Joe Biden believes in negotiations and that, after months of deadly fighting between Israel and Hamas, he is close to a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that would stop the war and release the hostages.

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security advisor, says so. “We are looking to close a hostage deal and a ceasefire, which would stop the war and reunite hostages with their families,” he said following a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week.

Incoming President Donald Trump, who would replace words with deeds, is blunter. He said that if the hostages, including three Americans, are not released before he is sworn into office Jan. 20, “There will be hell to pay.”

“Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States,” he said.

He later added, “It’s not going to be pleasant.”

If the few remaining leaders of Hamas are still alive in Gaza and can read the rubble, they would be wise to make a deal with “good cop” Biden before facing a harsher outcome with “bad cop” Trump.

If Biden and Trump cannot on agree on much, they at least could slap each other on the back if a ceasefire/hostage deal is reached before Trump is inaugurated.

It would give Biden something to brag about going out the door and Trump something to brag about going in.

It is believed that there are still three Americans being held hostage among the 97 or so Israelis still under captivity. Four other Americans are presumed to be dead. The three Americans still alive, who were taken when the Hamas terrorists invaded Israel, are Edan Alexander, Omer Neutra, and Keith Siegel.

The current hostage scenario with Iran backed Hamas is like a minor replay of the 1979 Iran hostage crisis that helped topple Democrat President Jimmy Carter and usher in Republican Ronald Reagan as president.

The crisis began on Nov 4, 1979, when a mass of militant Islamic “students” in a surprise attack broke into the U.S. embassy in Tehran and took all of its 66 occupants hostage.

The event initially paralyzed Carter who at the time faced a primary challenge from Sen. Ted Kennedy before he had to square off against Reagan in the 1980 election.

Despite economic sanctions and several plans to rescue the hostages, including a botched U.S. military mission (Operation Eagle Claw) that cost the lives of eight Americans, the Iranian militants kept the hostages for over a year — and for the duration of the 1980 presidential campaign.

Carter’s inability to win release of the hostages, or his unwillingness to raise the military stakes to gain their release, reflected badly on him and his administration.

Despite ongoing backdoor approaches to solve the issue, Carter was looked upon as weak and ineffective, much the way Biden is viewed today.

It did not help that the Iranian militants hated Carter for his warm relationship with Shah Muhmmed Reza Pahlavi, the urbane leader of the country. In 1977, Carter welcomed him to the White House and in a later visit to Tehran, Carter called Iran “an island of stability.”

Two years later, the Islamic militants overthrew the shah and took over the country.

There were reports that while the Iranians would let the hostages go in exchange for the release of $8 billion in frozen Iranian assets, they would not do so while Carter was president.

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Reagan defeated Carter in the 1980 election.

No sooner was Reagan in the middle of his inauguration speech on Jan. 20,1981 than the hostages were on a plane in Tehran heading home.

Don’t be surprised if history repeats itself.

Peter Lucas is a veteran political reporter. Email him at: peter.lucas@bostonherald.com.

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