Starr’s 7 Questions: Walker Buehler, a big bat, and a partridge in a pear tree
Instead of seven swans a-laying, here are seven questions for Christmas Eve. Happy holidays!
1. Why are the Red Sox paying Walker Buehler so much?
In his final two years of arbitration eligibility, Buehler and the Dodgers twice settled on $8.025 million salaries. The Red Sox will pay him $21.05 million, identical to the price tag on this year’s qualifying offer. The one-year deal, which is pending a physical, also includes performance-based incentives.
That’s quite a hefty raise for a pitcher who missed 23 months due to Tommy John surgery, struggled upon his return last May, missed another two months due to a hip injury, then struggled further when he returned in mid-August.
Before the Tommy John, Buehler was one of the most dominant starters in the game. Between 2018-21 he pitched to a 2.82 ERA and 0.989 WHIP over 95 regular-season games (94 starts), with 620 strikeouts over 564 innings. He was an All-Star in ‘19 and ‘21, finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting in ‘18, ninth in NL Cy Young voting in ‘19 and fourth in ‘21. In October, he and the Dodgers won their second World Series in five years.
Consider Nick Pivetta. Like Buehler, Pivetta was eligible to receive a qualifying offer this year, but neither was considered a slam-dunk candidate. The Red Sox extended a QO to Pivetta, the Dodgers declined to extend one to Buehler.
Pivetta pitched to a 4.29 ERA over his five years in Boston, but he was one of the most durable starters the Red Sox have had in years. Over the last four years – he only made two starts after the Sox acquired him from the Phillies late in the 2020 season – Pivetta pitched in 129 games, including 105 starts. He threw at least 140 innings each season; Rick Porcello, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Josh Beckett, and Pedro Martinez are the only other Red Sox pitchers to pitch at least four 140-inning seasons within the last 20 years.
He was never an All-Star, but he was consistently available to pitch. Every other stat is secondary.
Pitching is expensive, and for us non-owner, non-player folk, discussing these large sums often feels like speaking about Monopoly money. But it’s certainly interesting that despite having approximately nine starting pitching options on the 40-man roster, the Red Sox still wanted to bring Buehler to Boston.
The Sox can certainly afford it. They’ve stayed under the lowest luxury tax threshold for two years, and their biggest addition this offseason, Garrett Crochet, is in Year 2 of arbitration eligibility.
2. How does Buehler change the 2025 starting rotation?
Craig Breslow made it clear that pitching was the top priority this offseason, and on paper, the Sox have definitely followed through, making additions to the starting rotation, bullpen, and minor leagues.
The starter department is deeper than it’s been in years, with Buehler, Crochet, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Josh Winckowski. Patrick Sandoval, Lucas Giolito, and Garrett Whitlock are slated to begin the season on the injured list as they recover from UCL surgeries, but have starting experience as well.
One could argue that Buehler wasn’t technically necessary. The roster, however, is full of younger, far less proven arms than the two-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion. He’ll bring veteran leadership and ample postseason experience to a team that could certainly use more of each.
3. Will the Sox have a six-man rotation?
I believe I wrote this in last week’s ‘7 Questions’ or some other Crochet-related piece, but it’s even truer now that the Sox are signing Buehler.
At present, the question isn’t ‘Can it be a six-man rotation,’ but ‘How can it not be?’
Crochet, Buehler, Houck, Bello and Crawford would be the likeliest five, with the Sox able to option Fitts, Priester, and Criswell to Triple-A, but Sandoval and Giolito are expected back at some point in the season.
Given the depth, a six-man rotation makes sense. It also affords pitchers additional rest, as evidenced by Bello, Houck, and Crawford becoming the first Red Sox homegrown trio to make 30 starts apiece since 1987.
4. Who’s a bigger risk, Buehler or Crochet?
Crochet and Buehler both underwent Tommy John surgery during the ‘22 season, in April and August, respectively. Their returns from the infamous elbow procedure have been markedly different.
Since returning mid-2023, Crochet owns a 3.57 ERA across 45 games (32 starts), with 221 strikeouts in 158 ⅔ innings.
Buehler didn’t undergo Tommy John until two months after his last game in June ‘22, and didn’t return to the mound until May of this year.
The Red Sox haven’t exceeded the luxury tax since 2022, and Buehler’s salary doesn’t put them over the threshold. Losing $21.05 million on a one-year deal isn’t the end of the world for one of the richest ownership groups in sports.
But if Crochet struggles in Boston while the top prospects they gave up become transformational stars in Chicago, it’s going to feel like it cost a lot more.
5. Can Buehler be a postseason ace?
Buehler will be the latest addition to a long list of players who’ve played for both sides of the 2018 World Series. As a Dodgers rookie, he pitched seven shutout innings to start Game 3, which eventually broke the record for longest game in postseason history (in terms of both minutes and innings).
Buehler is also coming off his very own Chris Sale moment. Just as Sale pitched the ninth to win Game 5 and finish off the Dodgers ‘18 World Series, Buehler just closed out Game 5 to cement the Dodgers’ championship. He even got a big strikeout swinging, making Alex Verdugo this year’s Manny Machado, to defeat the Yankees.
Two obvious caveats: Buehler needs to be healthy, and the Red Sox need to make the postseason.
6. Where will Corbin Burnes sign?
Corbin Burnes is the last big name on the free-agent pitching market, and the Red Sox were linked to him, even preparing an offer to him during the Winter Meetings earlier this month.
But with the Red Sox acquiring Crochet during the Meetings, and signing Buehler and lefty Patrick Sandoval since, it’s likely Burnes lands elsewhere.
7. Who will be the big bat?
The Red Sox have spent the first two months of the offseason locked in on pitching additions: Justin Wilson, Aroldis Chapman, Crochet, Sandoval and Buehler.
The most glaring need yet to be resolved is a righty bat for their lefty-overloaded lineup. Will it be Teoscar Hernandez, Alex Bregman, someone else? Or, will they shake things up with a trade? There’s more than one way to balance the scale.