Drake Maye-Josh Allen: Patriots rookie QB playing even better as a rookie
FOXBORO — Let’s give Jerod Mayo some credit.
In his latest meeting with the media, Mayo didn’t place unnecessary expectations on his rookie quarterback or make any comments he’d need to walk back when asked to compare Drake Maye to the Bills’ Josh Allen before this weekend’s matchups between the two teams.
Because the similarities between Maye and Allen, the current NFL MVP favorite, are evident.
Both Maye (6-foot-4, 225 pounds) and Allen (6-foot-5, 237 pounds) possess ideal size, elite mobility and the ability to fire passes into tight windows with arm strength and precision.
“Well, one is the MVP of the league, and the other is a rookie quarterback. I’m not trying to be smart,” Mayo said Wednesday morning when asked to compare the players. “I don’t want to get into a comparison and comparing those two players. They both offer the ability to run and the ability to throw the ball down the field. In saying that, Josh being a veteran quarterback is a difficult challenge.”
While, yes, it is unfair to compare Maye, at 22, to Allen at 28, the Patriots rookie QB actually stacks up quite favorably to when the Bills QB was himself a 22-year-old rookie.
Allen, the seventh overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft out of Wyoming, played in 12 games, starting 11, as a rookie. He completed 52.8% of his passes for 2,074 yards with 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while rushing 89 times for 631 yards with eight touchdowns.
Maye, the third-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft out of UNC, has played in 10 games, starting nine, so far as a rookie. He has completed 68.5% of his passes for 1,898 yards with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions while scrambling 42 times for 359 yards and two touchdowns with no designed runs. He’s also improving every week.
Maye has completed a much higher percentage of passes with more passing touchdowns and yards per game and throwing interceptions at a lower rate. But let’s dive into some advanced data to break down the two QBs.
Bold indicates advantage … EPA per play is expected points added to per play, which measures how a player performs compared to expectations on a per-play basis … CPOE stands for completion percentage over expectation … Adjusted completion percentage takes out drops, throwaways, spiked passes, passes batted at the line of scrimmage and passes when a QB is hit while throwing … stats via RBSDM.com, PFF.com and Pro Football Reference.
Maye, 2024:
QBR: 58.7 (16th)
EPA/play + CPOE: 0.078 (20th of 35)
EPA/play: 0.023 (24th)
Success rate: 48.4% (16th)
CPOE: 3.3 (10th)
Air yards: 7.5 (24th)
PFF grade: 74.7 (20th)
PFF passing grade: 67.9 (24th)
PFF run grade: 89.9 (second)
Big-time throw%: 3.6% (21st)
Turnover-worthy play%: 3.7% (27th)
Adj%: 75.6% (18th)
Pressure to sack%: 22.2% (24th)
Time to throw: 2.87s (21st)
Bad throw%: 12.6% (eighth)
Pressure%: 36.6% (13th)
Allen, 2018:
QBR: 49.8 (25th)
EPA/play + CPOE: 0.012 (32nd)
EPA/play: 0.010 (27th)
Success rate: 42.6% (32nd)
CPOE: -6.9 (32nd)
Air yards: 10.9 (first)
PFF grade: 65.3 (27th)
PFF passing grade: 58.0 (31st)
PFF run grade: 81.4 (fourth)
Big-time throw%: 4.9% (13th)
Turnover-worthy play%: 5.1% (33rd)
Adj%: 64.7% (35th)
Pressure to sack%: 16.3% (15th)
Time to throw: 3.20s (34th)
Bad throw%: 25.7% (33rd)
Pressure%: 43.4% (first)
Time will tell if Maye possesses the same upside as Allen, who was making longer throws and flashed big-time throw potential as a rookie. And it would be difficult to mimic the Bills’ quarterbacks’ rate of improvement. He went from being one of the NFL’s least efficient and accurate quarterbacks in the NFL as a rookie to one of its best by Year 3.
But Maye is coming with a much higher floor and many of the same skills that Allen possesses. He’s already an above-average starter based on QBR, he’s top 10 in accuracy, and he’ll be even more valuable as a runner when the Patriots mix in designed runs.
Maye was asked how he feels about the comparisons to Allen on Wednesday.
“I think I’ve got a long way to go. What a player he is, playing at an MVP level,” Maye said. “I think the biggest thing is just the progression he’s made. I think what he dealt with, whether coming out of college or his first years here, I feel like everybody was just kind of not giving him the credit he deserved. Now, you can see kind of the full fruition of what he’s doing and the level he’s playing at. Just, like I said, fun to watch, and I think I’ve got a long way to go to get to anywhere close to playing at his level.”
Patriots defensive tackle Davon Godchaux pointed out how far ahead Maye is than Allen when comparing their rookie seasons at the beginning of November after a loss to the Titans.
“I tell the guys all the time he looks like Josh Allen 2.0, and I played Josh Allen in Miami his rookie year, and he didn’t look that good. And Josh Allen is a phenomenal player. He’s an MVP-type player, Madden cover, he deserves everything. He’s a great player, but he didn’t look like that his rookie year. Drake looks better than Josh his rookie year … he looks amazing, especially when he runs the ball. I didn’t know the kid had burners like that. I’m excited to play with him and watch him the next couple years,” he said.
Maye said he watches Allen any chance he gets.
“I’m a big fan of his, a big fan of his game. I got to meet him a couple times throughout my time just crossing paths, and he’s an awesome dude,” Maye said.
In an odd scheduling quirk, the Patriots will play the Bills for the first time this season on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. in Buffalo and again in Week 18 at a time to be determined at Gillette Stadium.
For years, the Bills were chasing the success of the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick-led Patriots. Now, the Patriots are hoping their young passer pans out as well as the Bills’ franchise quarterback.