Patriots film review: Drake Maye makes a critical leap and more Colts loss takeaways

As hard as Sunday’s loss hit, splitting the blame pie for the Patriots afterward was easy.

Everybody got a slice.

The offense, for tripping on penalties and a turnover to ruin four trips inside the red zone.

The defense, for failing to halt a 20-play, game-winning drive, including the Colts’ crushing two-point conversion. Not to mention forcing just two punts around three earlier scoring drives.

And kicker Joey Slye, for missing a 25-yard chip shot before halftime before later coming up short on what would have been a record-breaking 68-yarder at the buzzer.

But Sunday’s film offered more than blame. It revealed another sparkling Drake Maye performance, an offense coalescing around him, why the Patriots struggled in the red zone, a secondary shifting around Christian Gonzalez and reasons to worry about that same defense besides Indianapolis’ final drive.

And still, there’s more. Here’s what else the film revealed about the Patriots’ latest loss:

Drake Maye

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye looks to pass during the second quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

24-of-30 for 238 yards, TD, INT, 59 rushing yards

Accurate throw percentage: 80%

Under pressure: 5-of-6 for 83 yards, 3 sacks, 10 rushing yards

Against the blitz: 5-of-6 for 38 yards, 6 rushing yards

Behind the line: 3-of-3 for 18 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 16-of-20 for 129 yards, INT

10-19 yards downfield: 5-of-7 for 91 yards, TD

20+ yards downfield: N/A

Notes: You’ve seen him scramble. You’ve marveled at the arm.

How about Drake Maye’s timing?

Sunday featured Maye’s most accurate performance as a pro, thanks to a growing knack for delivering anticipatory throws that beat tight coverage. Maye converted five first downs with passes that left his hand as the intended receiver broke off his route, from Kendrick Bourne to tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. Maye’s only touchdown was a beautiful display of anticipation and accuracy, lofting a helmet-high pass to Hooper over tight man-to-man coverage in the second quarter.

 

Maye gouged the Colts’ almost whenever they played man, first with a 41-yard scramble, the Hooper touchdown and a couple of third-down conversions to Henry. He also sifted through Indianapolis’ occasional zone disguises, finding seams in Cover 2 and checkdowns when they presented themselves against the Colts’ base Cover 3 looks. Overall, he posted a plus-10.4% CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), a metric that accounts for difficulty of throws by using tracking data. That marked the highest of his young career.

Overall, Maye processed quickly yet played a patient game, showing an approach mature beyond his years, and certainly for a rookie making his eighth start. One knock: Maye prematurely left a couple pockets to escape to his right, a tendency for him like many right-handed, mobile quarterbacks. Only once did Maye’s decision to bail result in a sack, with the others resulting from good downfield coverage.

One more thing: remember how some fretted over his turnovers last week? Maye finished without a single turnover-worthy play for the first time this season.

Critical areas

Turnovers: Patriots 1, Colts 2

Explosive play rate: Patriots 7.4%, Colts 3.4%

Success rate: Patriots 59.7%, Colts 58.6%

Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 2-6, Colts 3-4

Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 28%, Colts 30.7%

Offense

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne is hauled down by Indianapolis Colts safety Nick Cross during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 61% of snaps in 11 personnel, 34% of snaps in 12 personnel, 4% of snaps in 21 personnel, 1% of snaps in 13 personnel .***

Personnel production: 58.5% success rate in 11 personnel, 56.2% success rate in 12 personnel, 100% success rate in 21 personnel, 100% success rate in 13 personnel.

First-down down play-calls: 55% pass (62.5% success rate), 45% run (57.1% success rate)

Play-action rate: 23.1%

Like Patriots offensive coordinators of the past, Alex Van Pelt attacked a base Cover 3 zone defense with a bevy of short throws. Maye didn’t attempt a single pass more than 16 yards past the line of scrimmage, per Next Gen Stats, and instead carved Indianapolis up with quick-hitters. The tight ends and slot receiver DeMario Douglas combined for 15 of the Patriots’ 24 catches, most on high-low concepts or other routes that stretched zone defenders.

Van Pelt also hit the Colts with a well-balanced rushing attack, starting with a 32-yard counter run and ensuing outside zone calls. He also sprinkled in a successful shovel pass to Hunter Henry from a rare two-back backfield featuring Marcus Jones, put Rhamondre Stevenson alone for a goal-line touchdown called back by penalty and dialed up one of his highest rates of play-action yet (5-of-5 for 52 yards, plus four scrambles). Once the game settled down, the Patriots lived mostly out of their base concepts.

Criticisms of Van Pelt’s play-calling on a bad three-and-out in the fourth quarter miss the fact the Patriots had more than 200 rushing yards at that point, and a 60% success rate on runs. Yes, run-run-pass is no master play-calling sequence, but the offense had its formula then and a dual goal of scoring points and killing clock.

One area worth scrutinizing: the consecutive runs called starting at the Colts’ 11-yard line with 41 seconds left in the first half. Maye handed the ball off on first-and-10 and second-and-9, and the Patriots called timeout after both plays to preserve the clock. Why not just throw?

Player stats

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots running back Antonio Gibson scores a touchdown during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Broken tackles: RB Antonio Gibson 7, Rhamondre Stevenson 2, TE Hunter Henry 2, WR Kendrick Bourne, QB Drake Maye

Pressure allowed: Team 6 (2 sacks, QB hit, 3 hurries), LG Layden Robinson 2 (2 hurries), QB Drake Maye (sack), LT Vederian Lowe (hurry), RG Mike Onwenu (hurry), RT Demontrey Jacobs (hurry)

Run stuffs allowed: Team 2, Onwenu

Drops: N/A

Notes

So, what happened in the red zone? Well, Kendrick Bourne stopped his crossing route right in front of intended target Hunter Henry on Maye’s first sack, which forced Maye to hold the ball and killed a promising opening drive. Field goal.

Next, right guard Mike Onwenu and left guard Layden Robinson took consecutive holding penalties to not only nullify a Rhamondre Stevenson touchdown, but back the Patriots up from first-and-goal at the Colts’ 2-yard line to first-and-goal at their 22. Field goal.
Maye finished the next red-zone trip with his 16-yard touchdown pass to Austin Hooper, before Van Pelt’s curious run calls preceded another Maye coverage sack and a missed 25-yard field goal try.
Lastly, Henry served up an interception from the 1-yard line in the third quarter, unable to corral a Maye rocket thrown low and away from closing defenders, and Antonio Gibson scored an 11-yard rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter after another penalty nullified a Bourne touchdown catch.
Overall, a combination of penalties, bad mistakes and worst luck kept the Patriots from scoring 30-plus points for the first time all season.
The penalties deserve a second mention. Even if the Patriots were subject to ticky-tack holding calls, every offensive lineman except center Ben Brown was flagged before halftime. Can’t have it.
Robinson was the only O-lineman to get flagged twice and/or allow multiple pressures, but all told, the rookie’s performance went better than expected. He made his first start at left guard in college or the NFL, as the Patriots’ staff continues to shuffle its young players around and try to settle on a starting offensive line.
Gibson quietly has been the Patriots’ best back by a solid margin the last few weeks. He forced seven missed tackles, the most any Patriot has produced in more than a month.

Antonio Gibson with the hesi

: CBS pic.twitter.com/i2IckoYtZq

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 1, 2024

It’s unclear why Stevenson doesn’t have the same wiggle as earlier this year, but the fumbling issues have returned. He’s lost the ball twice in the last three weeks, but recovered both times.
A better day for DeMario Douglas, whose poor route detail has led to incompletions in recent games. He secured all four targets Sunday.
After correctly sitting down in zone coverage, rookie receiver Ja’Lynn Polk slid right while Maye delivered the only pass he saw all day. It fell incomplete, and his struggles continue.
Fellow rookies Javon Baker (2 snaps) and Jaheim Bell (4) saw minimal playing time. Bell also flexed into the backfield as a fullback, something Van Pelt has experimented with off and on.
Did the Patriots sub Jacoby Brissett into the game on third-and-1 in the second quarter to use him as a … fake quarterback sneak specialist? Bourne took a jet sweep on the play for six yards.

Defense

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots’ Christian Barmore looks at Davon Godchaux on the bench after the defense gave up a touchdown during the second quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 62% three-safety nickel package, 28% three-corner nickel, 7% dime, 3% base defense.****

Coverage breakdown: 56% zone, 44% man

Blitz rate: 32%

Blitz efficacy: 75% offensive success rate and 6.5 yards per play allowed

Before the final drive, the Patriots primarily worked from three-safety personnel and zone coverage calls. Defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington preferred soft versions of Cover 3, which helped split the difference between loading the box to stop Indy’s run game and guarding against Richardson’s deep strikes. The results were mixed, as the Colts maintained a steady run game but produced just two explosive plays all day.

Later, Covington dialed up more man-to-man and more blitzes to disrupt the Colts on their marathon, game-winning drive. The Patriots had thrived in off-man coverage to that point, allowing two completions on five attempts before Christian Gonzalez’s pick in the fourth quarter. But Richardson found completions attacking Kyle Dugger and Alex Austin, who also got flagged for a key pass interference penalty.

Ultimately, on fourth-and-3, Dugger allowed a touchdown catch to Colts receiver Alec Pierce from a goal-line zone defense that nonetheless left him exposed in a bad 1-on-1 matchup.

Covington’s other problem: no amount of Xs nor Os could solve getting blown off the ball. The Colts rushed for 144 yards, but just 66 after contact. The Pats tackled well, but lost the line of scrimmage too often until their last couple downs, by which point Indianapolis picked on their secondary weak links and then called a perfect run play to pull out a win.

Player stats

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers chases down Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Interception: CB Christian Gonzalez

Pressure: OLB Yannick Ngakoue (QB hit), LB Christian Elliss (QB hit), DL Keion White (hurry), DL Jeremiah Pharms (hurry), DL Eric Johnson (hurry), S Jabrill Peppers (hurry), Team (hurry)

Run stuffs: Team 3, DL Daniel Ekuale, Gonzalez, Peppers

Pass deflections: DB Marcus Jones 2, CB Alex Austin 2, S Kyle Dugger, LB Jahlani Tavai, Elliss, Gonzalez

Missed tackles: Elliss 2, Ngakoue

Notes

Let’s start with the good: Christian Gonzalez didn’t allow a single catch in man-to-man coverage versus a solid receiving corps, and gave the Patriots a chance to seal the game with his fourth-quarter interception.
Opposite Gonzalez, little-used corner Alex Austin capably stepped in for Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones, who each played a season low in snaps. The 6-foot-1 Austin successfully battled Colts receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce, who both stand 6-foot-3 or taller; sans a late, questionable pass interference penalty.
Austin allowed one catch compared to two pass breakups, while Marcus Jones posted a shutout on three targets. Expect to see more of both of them moving forward, as well as second-year corner Isaiah Bolden (season-high 15 snaps).
In the back end, Jabrill Peppers joined Gonzalez and fellow safety Kyle Dugger as the only players to see 100% of defensive snaps. Peppers was the Patriots’ second-best defender Sunday.
Notable Peppers plays: stoning Anthony Richardson in the hole on second-and-goal with 24 seconds left; pressuring Richardson a few players earlier on fourth-and-3, but allowing him to escape and throw for a conversion; stuffing Richardson on an outside run; tallying a team-high nine tackles.
Rough day again for Dugger, who improved on his disastrous play at Miami but remains a liability in single coverage. He’s become a frequent target for opponents, even dating back to Week 1. Fellow safety Jaylinn Hawkins got overmatched at times in the box.
Yannick Ngakoue, the Patriots’ midseason waiver add and veteran pass rusher, tallied a QB hit for the second straight week, but those are his only pressures in 49 pass-rushing snaps so far.
Nice job by Jahlani Tavai for jumping late into Richardson’s throwing lane and tipping the pass that led to Elliss’ interception, which closed the first half.

On the game-winning two-point conversion, linebacker Christian Elliss was late to rally to stop Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, but it may not have mattered. Elliss, even at 238 pounds, is smaller than Richardson and would ideally still be working as a dime linebacker in passing situations given that’s where his strengths lie.
It says something about a run defense when the best run-stoppers all played in the secondary. That held true between Peppers, Dugger and even Gonzalez, who knocked Jonathan Taylor out of bounds on the Colts’ third-and-goal run.. Poor game from defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, who had just three tackles.
Defensive tackle Christian Barmore, whose duties have shifted from mostly pass-rushing to more early-down work over 31 snaps, was illegally held and chop-blocked on the 2-point conversion. He had a legitimate post-game gripe with the officials.
Quiet days for edge defenders Anfernee Jennings and Keion White, who were at times negated by Indianapolis’ run reads. White effectively rushed from the interior on third down, but finished with a single pressure. He has one sack since Week 2.
Poor job getting lined up, again, in the red zone versus tempo. The Patriots allowed their first touchdown on a quick snap the Colts ran to free a running back in the flat, similar to Miami’s third score a week before. Worse, Indy enjoyed a successful play on all eight snaps of that drive. Steamrolled.

Special teams

Kicker Joey Slye took responsibility for Sunday’s loss, pointing not to his missed 68-yarder at the buzzer but the 25-yard attempt he sent wide left just before halftime.
The question is: was a 68-yarder worth it? Had Slye had the kick, he would have set an NFL record for longest make ever. Supposedly, Slye has made kicks of that distance in practice, but fell short Sunday.
Slye explained his initial miss as a function of poor communication, which may have also affected Bryce Baringer’s hold that set up the kick. Slye also nailed three field goals, including a 54-yarder.
Both the Patriots and Colts took three kick returns, though none covered more than 30 yards.

Studs

QB Drake Maye

His most accurate game as a pro. Maye also did damage scrambling, busting out a 41-yard rush for the Patriots’ third-longest play of the year.

RB Antonio Gibson

He took seven carries and forced seven missed tackles, piling up 62 yards and a touchdown.

CB Christian Gonzalez

He made one more catch than he allowed in man-to-man coverage, picking off a pass in the fourth quarter. Gonzalez also made a late run stop on the perimeter during the Colts’ final drive.

Duds

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DL Davon Godchaux

The centerpiece of the Patriots’ run defense, Godchaux helped allow 144 rushing yards and got controlled on the game-winning two-point conversion.

RG Mike Onwenu

Onwenu got beat on what could be argued as a coverage sack on the Patriots’ opening drive, later got flagged for holding and was at fault on a third-down run-stuff.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. 

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six; quarter = seven.

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