MLB notes: What if the Red Sox actually land Juan Soto?
Coming into the offseason the Red Sox were not considered a realistic threat to land Juan Soto. Boston was rarely floated as a candidate whenever the topic of Soto’s free agency came up, especially considering how cheaply the Red Sox have operated over the past five years.
This is the same club that wouldn’t pay Mookie Betts and has shown little willingness to invest in premium talent, so the idea that suddenly the Red Sox would be willing to shell out one of the biggest contracts ever seemed outlandish at best and delusional at worst.
And yet, now it doesn’t seem so crazy after all.
According to recent reports, the Red Sox are among the small handful of clubs who have emerged as serious players for Soto’s services. Club officials have reportedly met with Soto and his representatives to make their pitch, and while the Red Sox should be considered underdogs compared to the Yankees and Mets, the expectation is they will make a strong push as the bidding heats up in the coming days.
What if they actually pull it off?
The Red Sox signing Soto would be a seismic event in the history of the franchise. Players of Soto’s caliber rarely become available, and his arrival would instantly elevate the club back into relevance, both as a championship contender and as a meaningful destination in the baseball world.
After five years of toiling through mediocrity, the Red Sox would be well and truly back.
It’s impossible to overstate just how big a deal Soto coming to Boston would be, as the move would have ramifications that extend far beyond the baseball diamond. Seeing as that the possibility is no longer a pipe dream, it’s worth diving deep into just what Soto would bring to the table and how he could potentially impact the Red Sox upon his arrival.
A historic contract
In terms of dollars and cents, Soto’s deal would be the biggest in franchise history by a huge margin. Soto has already turned down a 15-year, $440 million extension offer from the Washington Nationals, and the expectation is he’ll ultimately land a deal in excess of 12 years, $600 million on the open market.
Soto could conceivably double the value of the 10-year, $313.5 million extension Rafael Devers signed prior to 2023, which smashed the record for largest contract in club history.
In terms of outside free agents, Soto’s deal will dwarf every other contract the Red Sox have ever handed out. The five largest free agent deals in club history are David Price (seven years, $217 million), Manny Ramirez (eight years, $160 million), Carl Crawford (seven years, $142 million), Trevor Story (six years, $140 million) and J.D. Martinez (five years, $110 million).
Of those, the only one whose situation remotely compares to Soto was Ramirez, whose deal in December 2000 was the second-richest in MLB history at the time behind only Alex Rodriguez’s record-breaking 10-year, $252 million contract, which was signed less than a day earlier.
Even extending beyond baseball, Soto’s likely deal would stand alone. His contract should dwarf the value of Jayson Tatum ($315 million) and Jaylen Brown’s ($304 million) recent extensions with the Celtics, and would blow away any contract the Patriots or Bruins have ever handed out.
A future Hall of Famer in his prime
Through his first seven MLB seasons, Soto’s production ranks among the greatest to ever play.
Since making his debut at age 19 he’s already hit 201 home runs, posted a .421 career on-base percentage and .953 OPS, earned four All-Star nods and five Silver Sluggers, and won a World Series championship. Still just 26 and only now entering his prime, Soto is on track to finish as a slam dunk future Hall of Famer.
It’s not too often someone comes along whose best comparisons are guys like Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Ted Williams. And he might just be getting started.
Once again, Ramirez probably offers the best parallel among past Red Sox signees. At the time of his arrival Ramirez was 28 years old and through eight seasons with Cleveland had earned four All-Star nods, three Silver Sluggers and three top-10 MVP finishes. He’d hit 236 home runs, batted .313 with a .998 career OPS and was coming off a 2000 season in which he’d batted .351 with 38 homers, 122 RBI and an AL-best 1.154 OPS.
Upon his arrival, Ramirez continued to produce at a high level and became one of the most impactful players in franchise history. In eight seasons he hit 274 home runs — joining the 500 homer club in the process — while batting .312 with a .999 OPS, nearly equaling his production in Cleveland. He made eight straight All-Star teams, earned six more Silver Sluggers, finished top-10 in the MVP vote five times and formed one of the most dangerous middle of the order tandems in baseball history with David Ortiz. Together they’d lead the Red Sox to two World Series championships.
Ramirez was unquestionably among the most impactful player acquisitions in franchise history, and if not for his eventual association with performance-enhancing drugs, Ramirez would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Soto actually presents much less risk than Ramirez even if he’ll probably sign for longer at a much higher rate. Ramirez had well known character questions — “Manny being Manny” was not a uniquely Boston phenomenon — and while his time in Boston was successful, it was also marked by frequent bouts of drama. There have never been any such questions about Soto, who has always been regarded as great clubhouse presence who brings an upbeat personality, a healthy swagger and unquestioned work ethic and intensity to the ballpark.
Solution to unbalanced lineup
Craig Breslow has spoken at length about the need to balance the Red Sox lineup, which currently tilts heavily left-handed. Juan Soto bats left-handed too, so he would not appear to be a solution to that particular problem.
But the whole point of balancing the lineup is to ensure the Red Sox aren’t susceptible to left-handed pitching the way they were last season. In that respect, Soto would be a game-changer.
Typically left-handed hitters aren’t as productive against lefties as they are against righties, and Soto is no exception. But unlike normal hitters who might be solid against favorable matchups and liabilities against unfavorable ones, Soto’s “bad” numbers are still borderline elite.
For his career Soto has batted .293 with a 1.000 OPS against righties, which signifies total dominance. Against lefties, he’s batting .263 with an .857 OPS, which isn’t quite as good but still represents a higher OPS than the career totals posted by Hall of Famers Jim Rice, Reggie Jackson and Carl Yastrzemski.
That will certainly get the job done.
Even if the Red Sox would still prefer to field a more balanced mix of lefties and righties, they aren’t going to let their current lineup configuration stop them from pursuing Soto. You build around stars, not the other way around, so if signing Soto means trading a different left-handed hitter, the Red Sox would do that in a heartbeat.
A rare Yankee to switch sides
Soto coming to Boston would also have major ramifications for the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry.
Last offseason the Yankees traded for Soto, and in his lone season in New York he enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career. Soto formed a terrifying tandem with Aaron Judge and batted .288 with 41 home runs, 109 RBI, a .989 OPS and a career-high 7.9 WAR. He led New York to its first World Series appearance since 2009 and finished third in the AL MVP vote.
Yankee fans no doubt hope to see Soto in pinstripes for the rest of his career, so the idea of him leaving town and suiting up for the Red Sox would be a huge blow.
Soto would also become among the most prominent players to ever switch sides in the rivalry, and certainly the biggest to go from New York to Boston.
Generally when core guys have switched teams, it’s usually been from the Red Sox to the Yankees. Everyone obviously knows about Babe Ruth, but Luis Tiant, Wade Boggs, Johnny Damon, Jacoby Ellsbury and Alex Verdugo also went directly from Boston to the Bronx. Roger Clemens technically had a stop in Toronto between his stints, but he belongs in that group as well.
As for those who went from the Yankees to the Red Sox, the most notable examples are Don Baylor, who was traded to Boston in 1986 and won a Silver Slugger his first year with the team, and David Cone, who won four World Series titles with the Yankees before turning in a solid age-38 season with the Red Sox in 2001.
New face of the franchise
Over the past few years the Red Sox have sorely lacked star power. The club has a perennial All-Star in Rafael Devers, but he’s generally eschewed the spotlight and has never fully embraced the idea of being the face of the franchise.
Beyond him the Red Sox don’t have many recognizable names, certainly not like when they had David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and Mookie Betts.
Soto’s arrival would immediately flip that dynamic.
As one of the game’s brightest young stars, Soto would give the Red Sox a marquee talent who the club could sell to a fanbase that’s grown increasingly cynical. His presence would undermine the narrative that the Red Sox no longer value big names, and while he wouldn’t make up for the club’s failure to keep Betts, his signing would at least help the franchise turn the page.
Soto would also be great for business. Last year he ranked No. 7 in MLB jersey sales, behind only Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Betts, Francisco Lindor and Ronald Acuña Jr. The Red Sox did not have any players inside the top 20. He’d also bring a greater spotlight to the organization as a whole, potentially enhancing the visibility of Boston’s up-and-coming young standouts while also making Boston a more attractive destination for other big ticket players.
Most importantly, his play on the field would immediately elevate the club into playoff contention, and if the Red Sox do what it takes to shore up their pitching staff, they could go into 2025 with legitimate championship aspirations.
Make no mistake, acquiring Soto will require an investment unlike any in franchise history. The Red Sox would have to fend off historic offers from franchises that have shown much greater willingness to swim in the deep end, but if they can get a deal done, Soto could prove worth every penny and more.