Jace Frederick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker looks like a 30-plus minutes per game player. Will Timberwolves treat him as such?
Timberwolves coach Chris Finch elected to go with Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the closing minutes of Friday’s chaotic victory over the Clippers, a decision that proved wise as Minnesota finally won a game down the stretch after losing in so many similar situations of late.
The success of the maneuver does beg the question: Why is that a decision to begin with?
Anthony Edwards will always be the Timberwolves’ best player. He is one of the best 15 players in the NBA and creates the gravity necessary to consistently function offensively. But No. 2 at the moment is a spot that can be debated. Rudy Gobert is dominant defensively. Julius Randle is Minnesota’s second-highest scorer.
But second-best player? At least when it boils down to impact on winning? The numbers, and the eye test, suggest it’s Alexander-Walker by a wide margin. The 26-year-old guard leads the team in effective field goal percentage (64 percent). Offensively, he’s shined every time he hasn’t been miscast as a point guard.
On the other end, he’s in the 96th percentile in estimated defensive plus-minus, per dunksandthrees.com. The Timberwolves allow just 1.05 points per possession when he’s on the floor, far and away the team’s best mark.
The Wolves are outscoring opponents by eight points per 100 possessions when Alexander-Walker is in the lineup this season. That’s not only the best mark of any Wolves rotation player this season, it ties the net rating of Gobert, who led the team in that metric during last season’s 56-win campaign. Posting the same number on a sub-.500 team is remarkable.
Second in net rating for the Wolves a year ago? Alexander-Walker. He has proven over a large sample size during his time in Minnesota that he’s a winning player that anyone can have success alongside. Scan the team’s list of the top 10 two-man pairings in terms of net rating, and you’ll see Alexander-Walker’s name littered across the board. He’s included in five of the top 10 two-man pairings, all of which are outscoring opponents by three-plus points per 100 possessions.
For reference, Naz Reid and Gobert are each featured thrice, while Edwards is only on the list when paired with Alexander-Walker. Most importantly, all three of Minnesota’s big men — Randle, Gobert and Reid — have pairings with Alexander-Walker in the top 10.
Which makes it a wonder as to why Alexander-Walker is currently eighth in minutes (24.4 per game) in effectively an eight-man rotation. Perhaps that’s starting to shift. He did play 28 minutes against the Clippers. And while he played just 20 minutes Wednesday against the Kings, part of that was likely due to foul trouble.
But his performance, and his impact on team success, suggests he should consistently be above the 30-minute threshold. That’s not an easy number to reach considering the other players the Wolves have, and the reputation and financial backing of those players. But it’s getting more difficult by the game to justify the likes of Randle and Jaden McDaniels playing six to seven minutes more per game than Alexander-Walker.
Not if the Wolves are truly trying to get on track and maximize this current roster. Because one thing is already abundantly clear — and has been for a couple of years now — the Timberwolves’ best basketball is played when Alexander-Walker is on the court.
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