Minnesota United vs. Sporting Kansas City: Keys to the match, projected starting XI and a prediction

Minnesota United vs. Sporting Kansas City

When: 7:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Allianz Field
Stream: Apple TV Season Pass
Radio: KSTP-AM 1500 ESPN
Weather: 59 degrees, cloudy, 8 mph south wind
Betting line: MNUFC plus-100; draw plus-250; SKC plus-250

Series history: While nicknamed the “nicest rivalry,” Kansas City has dominated it with 11 wins or four draws in all 20 MLS matchups since 2017,  including a plus-16 goal differential. Sporting won all three games last season by a combined 7-1 scoreline.

Form: MNUFC (4-2-2, 14 points) ended a three-game winless spell with an emphatic 3-0 road win at Charlotte FC on Sunday, which hadn’t lost at Bank of America Stadium in 13 straight matches since May 2023. Kansas City (2-2-5, 11 points) has been leaky defensively, conceding three goals apiece in four of the last five games. Sporting has also scored three goals three times and two goals twice in that span.

Storyline: Head coach Eric Ramsay significantly changed the Loons’ formation and its starting XI at Charlotte. Will he stick with three center backs, instead of the regular two, for a home match against a Western Conference rival?

Stat: With a goal against Charlotte, Tani Oluwaseyi is averaging 1.2 goals per 90 minutes. He replaced Teemu Pukki in the starting lineup last weekend and is likely to keep his pace. Pukki is averaging 0.36 goals per 90 so far this season.

Breakdown: Sunday in North Carolina, the Loons scored their first goal off a corner kick this season and it wouldn’t have been possible without center back Devin Padelford clearing space in Charlotte’s zonal marking system for Hassani Dotson’s header.

Quote: “What often goes unnoticed in a situation like that is the work around the player that ends up getting free to score,” Ramsay said. “… Devin (has) a strong argument in creating space that (Dotson) eventually arrived in. I think it was a really well executed team goal.”

Observation: The Loons’ training fields in Blaine now have additional dotted lines on top of the standard lines. They denote the attacking, middle and defensive thirds as well as the wings, half spaces and central channel. Ramsay did it to more quickly advance his teaching of players on the pitch.

View: Ramsay, who will coach his sixth match Saturday, is proving tough to quote. It’s not because he doesn’t say interesting things, but rather he shares so much detail in most answers that it’s hard to boil it down in print. A good problem to have.

Absences: Emanuel Reynoso (unexcused absence) and Sang Bin Jeong (international duty) are out. Hassani Dotson was the only regular not participating in Tuesday’s training session; his omission was not considered serious, Ramsay said Tuesday.

Check-in: Despite not scoring in 572 MLS minutes this season, Jeong notched a second-half goal to send the South Korean Under-23 team to added extra time in an Asian Cup match against Indonesia on Thursday. Jeong then scored a penalty kick in the shootout, but Indonesia won 11-10 in PKs to knock South Korea out of qualifying for the Summer Olympics in Paris.

Projected XI: In a 5-2-3 formation, LW Franco Fragapane, CF Tani Oluwaseyi, RW Robin Lod; CM Hassani Dotson, CM Wil Trapp; LB Joseph Rosales, CB Micky Tapias, CB Michael Boxall, CB Kervin Arriaga; RB DJ Taylor; GK Dayne St. Clair.

Prediction: Kansas City coach Peter Vermes started to own ex-Loons manager Adrian Heath, but Vermes won’t be able to read Ramsay like a book. United has played well in only one of four matches in St. Paul this season, but capitalize on Sporting’s spotty defense for a 2-1 victory.

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