Callahan: Celtics’ upset in Game 2 both an outlier and cause for concern

Keep reading if you’ve seen this before.

An outmanned Miami team out-toughing and out-shooting the Celtics in a road playoff game.

A Boston team bemoaning missed foul calls, while the Heat splashed 3s at the other end.

A raucous TD Garden turned silent, as if thousands, all at once, had seen a ghost.

Now let’s skip straight to the rub of Boston’s latest home playoff loss to Miami: are these ghosts real?

Did Wednesday’s 111-101 defeat in Game 2 mark the return of the Zombie Heat, undead and unstoppable in the clutch of every Boston series?

Or was Miami’s upset the result of an impossibly hot 3-point shooting performance no team should be able to replicate except in an empty gym?

The Celtics might believe one or the other, but they cannot possibly know because no one knows. The same way no one knew the C’s would fall into a 3-0 series hole last year in the Eastern Conference Finals, then tie the series days later.

What we can say is there are reasons to believe both, even if Boston, rightfully, remains an overwhelming favorite to close this series out in five or six.

Let’s start with the scary.

Jaylen Brown admitted the Heat bullied them at times, while the Celtics too often looked to the refs to bail them out.

“It’s a mindset. It’s a lifestyle. You just gotta embrace it and I don’t think we did,” Brown said. “They embraced it.”

Joe Mazzulla admitted he got out-coached.

Erik Spoelstra cut his team loose offensively, letting them run at a faster pace and fire at will from 3-point range after taking a dozen fewer 3s than Boston in Game 1. The Heat quickly realized they would not win a hard-nosed possession game, battling for more free throws, offensive rebounds and forced turnovers; their apparent game plan from Game 1.

That sea change in scheme caught the Celtics off-guard, though not as much as the success Miami’s plan yielded: a franchise playoff record 23 makes from 3-point range at a 53.5% clip.

Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) has the ball knocked away by Miami Heat forward Caleb Martin (16) and Miami Heat forward Haywood Highsmith (24) as the Celtics take on the Heat in game 2 of the first round of playoffs at the Garden on April 24. (Staff Photo By Stuart Cahill/Boston Herald)

Defensively, the Heat abandoned their zone, especially in the second half, and executed a physical, switching man-to-man defense. Switching itself wasn’t the problem — and shouldn’t have been, especially with walking mismatches Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson on the floor — but for one night stalled the Celtics’ typically humming drive-and-kick offense.

“They did a good job being physical, pushing catches higher and making it difficult for us to take advantage of those switches,” Mazzulla said.

It also discouraged them from taking their own 3s (just 32 attempts, fourth-fewest in a game this season). So early in the fourth quarter, Tatum hunted isolations and found trouble. On other possessions, the Celtics abandoned ball movement, cutting and screening for other reasons. And no one aside from Tatum and Jaylen Brown scored more than 13 points, including the shooting big man whose acquisition last summer made Boston’s offense as scheme-proof as any in the league,

That would be Kristaps Porzingis, proud owner of six points and a negative 32 plus-minus Wednesday night. Throughout the year, Porzingis’ post-ups allowed the Celtics to punish smaller, switching defenses and exploit mid-range holes in zone; both defensive Miami staples against the Celtics. Instead, the Heat exploited him, pushing Porzingis off his spots, baiting him into foul trouble and knocking away his entry passes, all the while gumming up any action involving the seven-footer.

Not great.

“They’re physical. They make it tough and stuff like that. They want to push catches out, especially if the whistle’s in their favor they pride themselves on trying to make everything tough,” Brown said. “So we just gotta fight for our spacing. Gotta be just as physical.”

Despite this, despite aaaaall of this, only a fool would pick Miami to upset Boston.

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Porzingis will bounce back and hit more than one field goal. Jrue Holiday doesn’t shoot 4-of-12 very often. The Celtics will hunt Herro and Robinson more ruthlessly on defense and to better effect.

Most of all, the Heat will not shoot better than they did Wednesday night, posting a preposterous 3-point percentage that deserves to be repeated: 53.5%.

Miami also turned the ball over at a higher rate than the Celtics, hardly snatched any offensive boards and all but ignored the rim offensively, the most valuable real estate on the floor. That feels sustainable, having happened in consecutive games. The Celtics also ignored players outside the arc who deserved their inattention, but punished them anyway.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. shot 32.2% from distance in the regular season and went 3-of-6. Caleb Martin, a 34.9% 3-point shooter in the regular season, went 5-of-6. Miami is praying to the basketball gods, hoping for their favor. The gods smiled on them Wednesday.

That won’t happen again… right?

Right?!

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