Let’s hit the obvious first.

Of course, no one knows how a prospect will perform in the NFL until he starts suiting up on Sundays. That’s what makes the draft a series of calculated guesses, not guarantees.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t analyze how front offices performed until September.

Here’s how we grade a draft: by weighing what we know now — prospects’ athletic profiles, college tape and skill sets — against the most predictive factors for success at different positions, team needs, positional value and the other options available to teams at the time they made their selections.

Basically, ask this question: more often than not, did the Patriots draft the best available player, while filling out their roster, prioritizing premium positions and landing prospects who fit historical trends of successful NFL players?

Mostly, yes. Here’s a pick-by-pick look at how the Patriots graded out in their first draft of the Jerod Mayo era:

1st round

North Carolina QB Drake Maye

Grade: A+

The obvious pick. The right pick. The only pick.

The Patriots have time to develop Maye, a prototypical prospect with exceptional talent. Maye can make every throw, extend plays and deliver over the middle of the field. He’s tough and well-respected as a leader, having been voted a team captain last year as a redshirt sophomore. He also protects the ball better than he’s given credit for.

Maye profiles comfortably to Justin Herbert, with Josh Allen upside. The Patriots should have chased upside here with their next franchise quarterback, and they did. Meanwhile, the coaching staff can Maye’s footwork, his most glaring flaw.

The Patriots did not believe Maye was running a well-constructed offense last season, one that also failed to protect him. Despite that, and a lack of talent around him, Maye landed on the All-ACC second team. He completed 63.3% of his passes for 3,608 yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. As a runner, he totaled 449 yards and nine touchdowns.

In his first year as a starter, Maye won 2022 ACC Player of the Year, Offensive Player of the Year and First-Team All-ACC honors. He finished top-five in major college football with 4,321 passing yards and 38 passing touchdowns around seven interceptions. He completed 66.2% of his passes and also led the team in rushing, with 698 yards and seven rushing touchdowns.

The front office has now ensured they’ll have time to iron out wrinkles in Maye’s game before eventually handing this 21-year-old the keys to the franchise.

Round 2

Washington WR Ja’Lynn Polk

Grade: B-

Washington wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk (2) makes the catch for a touchdown against Texas during the first half of the Sugar Bowl CFP NCAA semifinal college football game, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

The questions here are upside, and opportunity cost of passing on an offensive tackle.

The Patriots chose Polk over other wideouts with clearly superior athletic traits, including Texas’ Adonai Mitchell and Georgia’s Ladd McConkey, whom they passed over by trading out of No. 34, where McConkey went to the Chargers. Polk is a 6-foot-1, 203-pounder known for his versatility, toughness, wide catch radius and ability to track deep passes. At the scouting combine, he clocked a 4.52 in the 40-yard dash and recorded a 37.5-inch vertical leap.

Last season, he piled up 1,159 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, strong numbers at a position where statistical production is a fairly predictive measure of NFL success. Polk doesn’t wow in any particular area, but plays with a natural skill set and multiple media evaluators agree he can fine-tune his route-running to further develop into an NFL starter. His most common pro comparison is ex-Patriots receiver Jakobi Meyers.

Polk may be among the most pro-ready receivers in this class, but for now projects to become a No. 2 or No. 3 option at the next level for a team already loaded with those types of receivers.

Round 3

Penn State OT Caedan Wallace

Grade: C

Where is he going to play?

A four-year starter at right tackle, Wallace never played on the left side in college. His selection at 68th overall followed a run on offensive tackles in the late second round and early third, many of whom played on the left side or took snaps at both positions.

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Wallace stands at 6-foot-4 and 317 pounds, an above-average athlete and well-rounded player for his position. According to Pro Football Focus, Wallace allowed pressure on 3.6% of his pass-blocking snaps, per Pro Football Focus, a so-so number. He took a pre-draft visit to New England, and showed significant improvement last season reportedly because he committed himself more seriously.

Last year’s version of Wallace projects as a starting NFL right tackle. But since the Pats are projecting he’ll move to the left side, it’s a complete unknown.  And if the 24-year-old remains on the right side, where Mike Onwenu just re-signed on a $57 million contract and Calvin Anderson should be a serviceable backup, that creates a lot of redundancy for an O-line without a proven left tackle.

Wallace might even play guard at the next level. Meanwhile, in the 10 picks before Wallace went, the Patriots watched the Texans draft Notre Dame’s Blake Fisher at No. 59 overall, the Chiefs select BYU’s Kingsley Suamataia at No. 63 and the Commanders add TCU left tackle Brandon Coleman one pick before them. Suamataia and Coleman both played left tackle in college, while Fisher played there just a couple years ago.

Armed with extra picks in the fourth and sixth rounds, the Pats could have traded up for any of them. Instead, they waited and picked a career college right tackle who last played on the left side in 2018 in … high school. This sure feels more like hope than a plan, even as they added a player with strong 2023 tape who plays a position of major need.

Round 4

Texas A&M OG Layden Robinson

Grade: C-

Texas A&M offensive lineman Layden Robinson (64) warms up before an NCAA college football game against Sam Houston State Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Hard to see the vision here.

Robinson was three-year starter who only played right guard in college. He checks in at 6-foot-3 and 302 pounds, and earned high marks from scouts for his power and long arms. He left school as a fifth-year senior and turns 23 next week.

Robinson figures to push fellow right guard Sidy Sow for the starting job, but Sow played his best football down the stretch last season as a rookie and is another better run-blocker than pass protector. The Patriots’ depth at left guard is also much shakier than it is on the right side, where Onwenu can also slide over from right tackle.

Robinson allowed 16 pressures last season in 401 pass-blocking snaps, according to PFF; good for a 4% pressure rate. He got flagged for 13 penalties over his last two seasons. In 2022, he allowed four sacks and 36 pressures, according to PFF. His addition speaks to the Patriots’ wise plan to support new rookie quarterback Drake Maye, and if Robinson hits will cement that plan, which is huge considering how poor this offense was in pass protection last year.

But his selection over the available tight ends and receivers, and even tackles, felt curious at best.

Round 4

UCF wide receiver Javon Baker

Grade: A

Central Florida wide receiver Javon Baker (1) runs a route during the second half of an NCAA football game against Baylor on Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

Another weapon.

Baker, a 6-foot-1, 201-pounder receiver, is a downfield target and yards-after-catch threat who ran 4.54 at the combine and posted a superb 37-inch vertical jump. He’s more explosive than fast, but generated a ton of big plays last year (21.2 yards per catch average) and paces his routes well. An Alabama transfer, he does have trouble with drops and remains pretty raw, but this is the type of big-play potential the Patriots should be pairing with the big-armed Maye.

Baker addresses an obvious need, brings upside and terrific statistical production. His weaknesses, at least those related to route-running and movement efficiency, feel fixable. He has enough size and big-play ability to play the X, where he would need to separate and win 1-on-1. Like his new quarterback was in the first round, Baker feels like the obvious and right pick at No. 110 overall.

Round 6

South Carolina CB Marcellas Dial

Grade: B-

A 5-foot-11, 190-pounder, Dial was a three-year starter for the Gamecocks. He posted 31 pass breakups and three interceptions over his career, yet snagged zero picks last season. He’s an outside corner with reputed man-to-man coverage skills and good speed. Dial played some safety and special teams in college and turns 24 later this year.

At the NFL Scouting Combine, he clocked a 4.46 in the 40-yard dash, but a slow 7.29 in the 3-cone; a reflection of below-average quickness. Dial also leapt more than 40 inches in the vertical jump, showing an ability to contest high-arching passes.

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Dial’s addition could help patch a quiet need for the Patriots, who are low on bigger outside cornerbacks. His scheme versatility figures to be a major plus in their eyes, but his lack of quickness is a concern. Overall, Dial is a clear scheme fit and typical late-round pick: a player with clear deficiencies who could nonetheless push for a roster spot on special teams and/or defense with better coaching.

Tennessee QB Joe Milton

Grade: B+

If quarterbacks were drafted on arm strength alone, Milton would have been the top pick this week and most years.

Alas, as a raw passer who’s been slow to trigger and process at times, he falls into the sixth round. Milton is a developmental flier with all the talent in the world, who transferred from Michigan to Tennessee late in his college career. A change of scenery did little to change his NFL prospects, though, even as he completed 64.7% of his passes for 2,813 yards, 20 touchdowns and five interceptions last season.

Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton III (7) looks to pass during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Lexington, Ky., Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023. (AP Photo/Michelle Haas Hutchins)

He’s big, tough and strong, with some scrambling ability. But if you’re going to swing in the sixth round, you might as well swing for the fences. That’s what the Patriots did.

He can sit behind Maye and learn from Brissett, if the Patriots deem he’s worth developing past training camp. He’s also cheaper and carries a higher upside than Bailey Zappe, who may get traded soon. Good pick.

Round 7

Florida State TE Jaheim Bell

Grade: B-

An undersized tight end, Bell carries a loose resemblance to Jonnu Smith. He stands at 6-foot-2 and 242 pounds and plays with above-average run-after-catch ability. Bell is not an elite athlete, but could bring some juice to his position group as its most athletic player.

Quote of the week

“Us three alone is just going to bring back that winning mentality that everyone like in Boston.” – Patriots fourth-round rookie wideout Javon Baker