Mac Cerullo: Well Gabrielle, we finally made it. After a long, drawn-out offseason, the 2024 season is finally upon us. How are you feeling about the Red Sox right now?

Gabrielle Starr: Honestly, I feel like this is a very exciting group. We all know the narratives, projections, and quiet offseason stuff isn’t ideal, but I hope people can give them a chance to show what they can do on the field this year.

MC: The vibes around the fanbase definitely aren’t great, but this is definitely going to be sink or swim for the club’s young core. Either they’ll figure it out, take the next step and thrive, or we could be in for a long summer. The competition isn’t getting any easier either, so why don’t we start this off by looking at the AL East.

How will AL East shake out?

GS: For starters, I can’t get over the Yankees being picked to win the East pretty much every year. Sure, it happens a fair amount, but they’re simply not the same franchise they were 20 years ago, and they haven’t proven much of anything in over a decade! I think the Orioles can take it again this year, but beyond that, I feel like it’s something of a toss-up, and may not be as hotly contested as last year. There are already significant pitching injuries around the division: Gerrit Cole will be out for at least two months of the regular-season, Lucas Giolito is missing the entire year, the Blue Jays won’t have Kevin Gausman to start the season, and the Rays have Jeffrey Springs and Shane McClanahan recovering from elbow surgeries last year. If the Red Sox can stay healthy and their young core – especially the pitchers – can take the necessary steps forward, I could see them being the third-place team. And, as we all know, the Red Sox love to outperform expectations after last-place finishes. Boston’s September schedule is almost entirely against their division foes, too, so this race could really come down to the wire. What do you think?

MC: I think the Yankees have plenty of reason for concern, but they’ve done enough this offseason that they should be in the playoffs when all is said and done. I do think the Orioles will repeat as AL East champions and frankly I don’t think it will be close. Their young stars will be a year older and a year better, they have reinforcements like top prospect Jackson Holliday knocking on the door, and now they’ve got a bona fide ace in Corbin Burnes. They’re going to be trouble. What I’m less sure about is everyone else. Tampa Bay has the injury issues on top of Wander Franco’s whole situation, and even if the Rays always seem to find a way, that’ll be a lot to overcome. As for the Blue Jays, they had a pretty disappointing offseason and a lot of their better players are on the wrong side of 30. I don’t know who it will be, but I feel like someone in the AL East is going to slip this season.

GS: The one thing I’ll say about Burnes is that he’s used to having an elite bullpen backing him up. When I was covering the ‘21 Phillies, he and Zack Wheeler were vying for the NL Cy Young, and Wheeler led the Majors with 213 ⅓ innings pitched over 32 starts – including a league-leading three complete games – in large part because the Phillies didn’t have a reliable bullpen (they led MLB in blown saves for almost the entire season). Burnes, meanwhile, won the Cy Young despite throwing just 167 innings over 28 starts. His 2.43 ERA was significantly better than Wheeler’s (2.78), but he was also well-protected and could exit games earlier because the Brewers bullpen always got the job done. This isn’t a knock against Burnes, by any means, but it will be interesting to see how the Baltimore bullpen fares this year, especially with our old friend, Craig Kimbrel, assuming the closer role. Regarding the Yankees, it’s usually the same question: will Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton stay healthy and be productive? I definitely agree that at least one team is going to slip this year, and I’d guess it’s the Jays or the Rays. It’s kind of crazy that there hasn’t been a Wander Franco update in about a month, too.

MC: It’s very strange. As far as the Red Sox go, I do think this is going to be a better season than a lot of people think, but realistically we’re probably still looking at a fourth- or fifth-place finish. Put me down for 83-79 and fourth place. I do think they’ll stay in the playoff hunt into September but I don’t think they’ll have enough to snag the third Wild Card spot.

GS: I think the trade deadline will factor heavily into the Red Sox’s outcome. They were still somewhat in the Wild Card race last July, and players were publicly begging the front office for reinforcements. That’s actually been the case in each of the past two seasons, and the front office didn’t really do much. When that happened, the clubhouse energy changed. It seemed like the players deflated a little bit, and Rafael Devers essentially confirmed that earlier this spring. If they’re playing well and somewhat in the playoff hunt in July, the response from Craig Breslow and Co. could make or break the latter half of the season. Everyone knows the Sox have the financial flexibility and farm system to make trades this summer, so it could be a significant test for team leadership.

Who will win major awards?

MC: Let’s look at the players. Who do you think should be in the conversation for MVP, the Cy Young Award, Rookie of the Year, etc.?

GS: Bold prediction: Brayan Bello will receive Cy Young votes. Thoughts?

MC: Ooh, I like that. It could definitely happen. Bello was one of the best pitchers in baseball age 24 or under last season, and if he puts it all together it’s totally within the realm of possibility he could make that kind of leap. It’s funny too, the AL Cy Young race is totally wide open now with Gerrit Cole’s injury. Personally I think Seattle’s George Kirby will win, but Bello’s chances are as good as anyone’s.

GS: What a Cinderella story that would be, right? Pedro Martinez’s protégé winning the Cy Young the same year he’s the first Dominican-born Sox Opening Day starter since Pedro. I also have this funny feeling that Rafael Devers and Triston Casas could be AL MVP candidates, and though it’s unlikely that he keeps hitting the way he’s been raking in spring training, if Ceddanne Rafaela can carry that success into the season, he could get some Rookie of the Year votes. He could definitely be a Gold Glove finalist, at the very least.

MC: Here’s where I’m at on the Red Sox guys. I think Devers, Casas and Trevor Story will all be All-Stars, and while I think Jackson Holliday is a heavy favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year — he’s starting in Triple-A but he’ll be up soon — I could see Rafaela getting considered. I think Story and Rafaela could also win Gold Gloves, but I don’t see anyone vying for AL MVP. I think Aaron Judge will dominate that conversation, and if not him maybe Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Julio Rodriguez or Corey Seager.

GS: I keep forgetting that Soto is in the American League, let alone the division. J-Rod is always a great bet. He’s such an incredible talent and I think he’s well on his way to being one of the faces of the game for the next decade at least. Do you have NL picks for these awards?

MC: I’ve got Mookie Betts edging out Ronald Acuña Jr. for NL MVP, Spencer Strider taking the Cy Young and Milwaukee’s Jackson Chourio winning Rookie of the Year. You?

GS: While I’d never doubt Betts, it’ll be interesting to see how he adjusts to playing shortstop. It’s a long shot, but I’d love to see Chris Sale at least get some Cy Young votes this year, or at least be able to have a complete comeback season after so many waylaid attempts. I’m also going with Chourio for NL Rookie of the Year. I wonder if there’s ever been a year in which both ROYs had the same first name!

Who will win the World Series?

MC: Ok let’s talk playoffs. As I said above, I think the Orioles are winning the AL East and I bet the Yankees and Rays will get in as Wild Cards. I also think the Rangers will win the AL West and the Astros will make the field as a close second, and the Twins will win the AL Central. Think I’m on the right path?

GS: I agree, this is the Orioles’ division to lose, but I’m not so sure about those Wild Cards. The Rays are always pesky opponents, to say the least, but it feels like they’re about to have a weird year. A lot of AL West projections have the Rangers finishing second to the Astros, and I think that battle will be close, what with both teams losing important pitchers to free agency or injuries. I’d love to see the Mariners make a legit playoff run this year, too. Unlike last season, when the Twins easily won the AL Central with a record that would’ve been fourth-best in the AL East, I think their division is about to get somewhat competitive. The Tigers and Royals are both poised to finally emerge from their respective rebuilds, and even if they’re not contenders this season, I think one, if not both will be harder to shut down. What about the NL divisions? Maybe I’m just being a contrarian, but I feel like the ‘obvious’ outcomes could end up being totally wrong.

MC: That’s baseball, isn’t it? I think the NL is stacked and the NL West in particular is going to be a monster. The Dodgers, Giants, Padres and Diamondbacks all have reason for optimism and are going to beat each other up all season long. The Braves and Phillies are both great as well and something tells me the Cubs are going to be the class of the NL Central. I’ll say the Dodgers, Braves and Cubs win their respective divisions and the Giants, Phillies and Diamondbacks take the Wild Cards.

GS: It doesn’t just feel like the AL East and NL West are always the most ferocious division battles, it’s basically been the case for most of the century thus far. The pressure is obviously on the Dodgers, because if they can’t figure it out with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, then lord only knows. Of course, I always remind people that spending zillions to build a so-called super-team is no guarantee of anything; we saw that with the Padres and Mets last year, and the Yankees on and off for most of the last 20. It takes talent, obviously, but also good health, strong team chemistry, and a bit of luck to get to the finish line. Regarding the rest of the West, I think the Giants or Padres get a Wild Card, but not both. The Diamondbacks are sneaky-good, but the Eduardo Rodriguez injury isn’t an ideal way to start the season. The Cubs feel like a great pick for the Central. I feel that division has been something of an afterthought recently. I’d love to see the Phillies topple the Braves for their first division title since 2011, but I think Atlanta is too strong and well-balanced for that to happen. Honestly, I just want Bryce Harper to be in the postseason as long as possible, because he’s such an electric player. Speaking of, I just realized that neither of us even mentioned the Angels or Mike Trout.

MC: Yeah, and for good reason unfortunately. There should be a lot of great teams in MLB this season, but the Angels won’t be one of them. That being said, who do you have reaching the ALCS and NLCS, and who do you see reaching and winning the World Series?

GS: The Angels are a crying shame. Despite what I just said, it would be crazy not to pick the Dodgers. I’m not sold on them, but I could definitely see it happening. I think the pennant round comes down to them and either the Braves or Phillies. I think the American League comes down to whether the Orioles can topple either the Rangers or Astros. An Orioles-Dodgers World Series would be very interesting, a real ‘David and Goliath’ matchup. What do you see in your crystal (base)ball?

MC: I see the Orioles avenging their playoff loss to the Rangers to reach the World Series for the first time in 41 years, and I see the Dodgers overcoming the Braves in an epic NLCS showdown. As much as I’d love to say the Orioles will upset the Dodgers and win the World Series, Los Angeles is just a juggernaut. The 2024 World Series is the Dodgers’ to lose, and I see no reason why we shouldn’t expect them to get the job done.