Callahan: Are the Patriots following Bill Belichick’s playbook in free agency?
Until Monday night, the Patriots’ roster remained largely unchanged.
Ex-Commanders running back Antonio Gibson agreed to terms. Cool.
DeVante Parker and Chris Board were told to pack their bags. Not surprising.
Then Mack Wilson looked around and left, drawn to the desert in Arizona. That raised an eyebrow.
But you want a real surprise?
The Patriots’ front office, now under new leadership and following a different scouting system, executed the same old playbook on Day 1 of free agency.
That’s right. Bill Belichick’s value-over-everything playbook. How else could you read the Pats’ opening salvo Monday?
Now, for those inclined to give in to talk-radio hysterics, take a breath. De facto GM/director of scouting Eliot Wolf secured the team’s most important free agent, inking right guard/tackle Mike Onwenu to a three-year deal after dusk. That was a major piece of business for a team in desperate need of offensive line help, followed by the return of quarterback Jacoby Brissett.
More on Onwenu and Brissett later.
Historically, Belichick sat out the first few hours – or sometimes first day – of NFL free agency. Why? It’s a suckers lounge, a time when all activity is mistaken for achievement. The Patriots learned this first-hand during his final years.
The Pats were lounge visitors in 2021, strutting around, lit stogie in hand and tossing money around because they believed they had out-smarted the league by out-bidding all competitors in a depressed market caused by a lower salary cap.
Among other outside signings, here’s how Day 1 went for them that year:
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Jonnu Smith: four years for $50 million.
Jalen Mills: four years for $24 million.
Nelson Agholor: two years for $22 million, still the richest receiver contract in franchise history on an average annual basis.
Yikes. Fast-forward.
My sense is Wolf’s front office planned to take swings at a few of the best free agents, then allow the overall market to come to them. Basically, step to the plate hunting fastball. If they connected, the Patriots would at worst have a double, or maybe a home run. If not, they’d hang in the box and work the count looking for value.
Ex-Dolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins was one such whiff. He signed with Las Vegas for $110 million, including $84.5 million guaranteed. To me, that’s a pretty penny for a 28-year-old who just peaked in a contract year with nine sacks, double his previous season high. It seems the Patriots agreed.
Onwenu, on the other hand, was a home run. He was universally viewed as a top-tier free agent, someone the Patriots already know and trust as a system and locker-room fit. He’s powerful, versatile, smart and on the cusp of his prime. Onwenu is the exact type of player teams want to add or retain in free agency.
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Of course, other pitches have yet to cross home plate, and these could be just as critical. Among them: wide receivers Calvin Ridley and Marquise Brown, offensive linemen Tyron Smith and Jonah Williams and edge rusher Danielle Hunter and safety Justin Simmons.
The Patriots understand they must pay top dollar for top talent. Ridley is high on their free-agent board, according to Herald sources. But if they don’t connect on Ridley or another difference-maker, free agency will be an unequivocal failure for a team that boasted the second-most cap space in the league.
A failure. Full stop.
That urgency, however, may be lost on the Patriots during negotiations with lower-level players. Agents for some of these players recently vented to the Herald that Wolf’s front office has been playing hardball, more evidence of working the count as Belichick often did.
(Sidebar: agents, especially those in difficult negotiations, like to complain. This is both necessary context, and a small glimpse into the Patriots’ work behind the scenes.)
Wilson may have been a casualty of this hardball approach. The two sides were in negotiations during the combine, when Patriots staffers believed they were close to re-signing the 25-year-old linebacker. Wilson played his best football down the stretch of last season (3.5 sacks, two forced fumbles), and fits the “faster and more explosive” vision Wolf holds for the Patriots defense next season.
Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots linebacker Mack Wilson Sr. reacts after sacking Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
Instead, Wilson left for a three-year, $12.75 million deal with the Cardinals, and the Pats are suddenly down to Ja’Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Raekwon McMillan and Joe Giles-Harris at off-ball linebacker. And no one would confuse that group for football’s version of the Fast and the Furious.
It’s possible the Patriots let Wilson walk believing 2023 third-round linebacker/safety Marte Mapu can capably fill his shoes next season. Last year, the rangy Mapu looked far more comfortable roaming the second level than patrolling the deep middle or deep half as a traditional safety. Maybe that projection is fair.
So far, the Patriots have hit on most of their offseason forecasts. They nailed Kendrick Bourne’s market, striking a deal late Sunday night to keep him at $6.5 million annually on what basically amounts to a two-year deal for the 28-year-old receiver. They kept safety Kyle Dugger at a fair-market price, applying the transition tag at $13.8 million; a bet no team would come over the top and Dugger will ultimately sign the one-year pact in a safety market now flooded with veterans who will suppress each other’s price tags.
The Pats traded Mac Jones to Jacksonville for a sixth-round pick before free agency opened, knowing quarterback-needy teams would soon opt instead for Gardner Minshew or other backups and end talks. Meanwhile, the slow-moving Bears are watching their trade partners for Justin Fields dwindle, with Kirk Cousins off to Atlanta and Russell Wilson signing in Pittsburgh.
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In New England, the Pats will welcome back Brissett on a reported one-year, $8 million deal. He was always the most logical fit among free-agent quarterbacks: a leader and bridge veteran who experienced a career year under new Pats offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and can mentor the rookie they’ll likely draft next month.
Free agency, like life, is about timing. The Patriots played it slow for most of Monday, then hit big on Onwenu and smacked a single with Brissett. Belichick, somewhere, is smiling.
The rest of free agency, however, the Patriots must pivot from his old playbook. It’s time to keep spending, pushing and hunting for bigger and better talent. This front office cannot afford to strike out looking with this roster and franchise in its current state.
Batter up.