How Lucas Giolito could be just what the Red Sox starting rotation needs
If the Red Sox had one fatal flaw last year, it was their starting rotation’s inability to pitch deep into games. Those short outings didn’t just put the club in a hole any given day, they also put a strain on the bullpen that eventually proved too much to bear.
Getting more length from their starters was a top priority for the Red Sox, and by signing Lucas Giolito they’ve taken a big step forward.
Giolito, who has reportedly signed a two-year, $38.5 million deal with an opt-out after the first year, is the first significant outside addition to the Red Sox rotation. With the club’s subsequent trade of oft-injured Chris Sale to the Atlanta Braves, the Red Sox have effectively swapped out their least durable pitcher for one of baseball’s most.
Since his first full season in the big leagues in 2018, Giolito has consistently ranked among MLB’s most prolific starters, ranking sixth in games started (167) and seventh in innings pitched (947) over that stretch. Last season he tied for the MLB lead in games started (33) while throwing 184.1 innings, which would have led the Red Sox by a significant margin.
Giolito has also enjoyed three seasons in which he received Cy Young votes, but last season he endured a calamitous second half, during which he posted a 7.13 ERA following the All-Star break after posting a 3.45 in the first half. He also allowed an MLB-worst 41 home runs in 2023, and his advanced metrics fell off significantly from where they were in 2021.
That poor finish is the main reason why Giolito was available at such a modest price, but while the right-hander does come with risk, there are reasons to believe he could be in line for a bounce back.
First, Giolito’s struggles came amid a tumultuous stretch both on and off the field. On the field he changed teams twice in a span of two months, first being traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Los Angeles Angels before then being placed on waivers and picked up by the Cleveland Guardians as part of the Angels’ aggressive late-August salary dump.
Around that same time Giolito’s ex-wife filed for divorce, and it’s not a stretch to imagine all that upheaval could have negatively impacted his performance.
As for his less than stellar metrics, Giolito seems like someone who would particularly benefit from Craig Breslow’s new pitching infrastructure. If new pitching coach Andrew Bailey and director of pitching Justin Willard can fix his fastball and get him back to his 2021 performance, he could be more than just an innings-eater but a true middle of the rotation stalwart. He’s also still only 29, and with what’s essentially a one-and-one contract he has every incentive to try and put together a huge year so he can opt out and cash in during free agency next season.
If all goes well Giolito could turn out to be the next Rick Porcello, settling in as a dependable — and at times dominant — starter who takes the mound every fifth day and consistently gives his team a chance to win.
And even if there are some bumps along the way, at least the Red Sox can count on him to take the hill, which they couldn’t really say about Sale at this point in his career.
Giolito shouldn’t be the only addition the Red Sox make. Breslow hasn’t been shy about his desire to trade for a young standout with multiple years of team control, and the club is also expected to remain active on the free agent market. But even pending those moves the Red Sox pitching staff is better today than it was last season, and more importantly, it should be much better equipped for the rigors of a 162-game season.