The Patriots lost at Buffalo because they fielded lesser talent, committed more damaging mistakes and failed to seize on late-game chances.

Sound familiar? It should.

Sunday was a striking microcosm of their season; an effort nuked by quarterback turnovers in the first half and special teams errors in the second, that proved unsalvageable despite strong defense throughout. Though, this was no defensive masterpiece. Josh Allen and the Bills offense played like they had popped their New Year’s Eve champagne a night early.

Despite facing a mild pass rush (26.4% pressure rate) and favorable weather conditions, Allen threw a higher percentage of uncatchable passes than he has in any other game this season. His receivers dropped four balls. The Patriots did limit the Bills to two explosive plays and stood tall inside the red zone, but Buffalo cracked their league-best run defense for a 55% rushing success rate.

In the end, that’s how Allen and Co. knocked the Pats out, running the final 5:02 off the clock.

Yet, the instant analysis from Sunday was how hard the Patriots played. And even if it’s a feather no one would ever have reached for at any other point of Bill Belichick’s tenure, that ought to be a feather in his cap at 4-12. Because that is all he and his staff have been able to fight for going on months now: continued buy-in.

To play and coach their way and to keep the ship steady, even if it was blown off course long ago. Like a football team that loses four turnovers in the first 18 minutes of a game, but manages to march to the precipice of a comeback before finally falling as it was expected to all along.

Here’s what else the film revealed about Sunday’s loss:

Bailey Zappe

16-of-26 for 209 yards, 3 INTs

New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4) throws a pass during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

Accurate throw percentage: 66.7%

Under pressure: 3-of-7 for 38 yards, TD (scramble), INT, 3 sacks

Against the blitz: 1-of-3 for 14 yards, TD (scramble), INT, 2 sacks

Behind the line: 3-of-4 for 64 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 8-of-11 for 48 yards, 3 INTs

10-19 yards downfield: 4-of-6 for 58 yards

20+ yards downfield: 1-of-3 for 39 yards

Notes: Since Zappe took over the starting job, the Patriots offense has traded an identity rooted in efficiency for a boom-or-bust experience. Sunday offered the best example yet.

Zappe’s deep completion to Jalen Reagor, two successful screen passes and long scrambles helped the Pats post a season-high 11.3% explosive play rate. Most games, that type of explosiveness would clinch a win. Except Zappe’s three interceptions all but handed Buffalo a win in the first half, and the offense finished with a lowly 38% success rate.

On the first two interceptions, the Bills pounced on a couple of the Patriots’ pet passing concepts: a “stick” concept to Mike Gesicki, who ran a short stop/stick route, and a backside slant to DeVante Parker. Credit to Buffalo for studying up and jumping those plays, though Zappe should not have pulled the trigger on the second one.

Later, Zappe had a miscommunication with Reagor that led to a pick-six. It’s unclear whether Zappe or Reagor failed to adjust against an incoming Buffalo blitz. But the bottom lines here are simple: Zappe was not accurate enough to overcome three interceptions (66.7% accuracy rate), and an offense that scores 14 points won’t win.

Either, cut the mistakes or boost your efficiency. Or, ideally, both.

Critical areas

Turnovers: Patriots 4, Bills 1
Explosive play rate: Patriots 11.3%, Bills 2.9%
Success rate: Patriots 38%, Bills 48%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 2-2, Bills 2-5
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 26.4%, Bills 35.4%

Offense

New England Patriots wide receiver DeMario Douglas (81) attempts to stiff arm Buffalo Bills defensive end Leonard Floyd (56) after a catch during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 62% of snaps in 11 personnel, 36% snaps in 12 personnel, 2% in 21 personnel.***
Personnel production: 7.3 yards/play in 11 personnel, 2.9 yards/play in 12 personnel, 6.0 yards/play in 21 personnel.
First-down down play-calls: 52% pass (6.4 yards per play), 48% run (3.8 yards per play)
Play-action rate: 22.6%

Player stats

Broken tackles: WR Demario Douglas 6, RB Ezekiel Elliott 3, TE Pharaoh Brown
Pressure allowed: Team 6 (2 sacks, 4 hurries), LG Atonio Mafi (sack), LT Vederian Lowe (QB hit), RB Ezekiel Elliott (QB hit), C David Andrews (hurry), RT Mike Onwenu (hurry)
Run stuffs allowed: Team 3, Andrews, Onwenu
Penalties: None
Drops: None

Notes

Ten plays, five drives, three turnovers, zero points. No analysis of the offense can start anywhere except that hideous start. Bailey Zappe, tight end Pharaoh Brown and good Bills defense were chiefly to blame. (See: Zappe analysis)
From a talent standpoint, the Patriots had no matchup advantage to target or exploit. It’s hard to win that way, especially against a defense that knows you well and jumped a couple of your favorite concepts for two interceptions right away.
From a game-plan standpoint, offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien tried to leverage the same motion tactics that worked against Buffalo in October during a 29-25 upset win, but stopped after the turnover barrage. The Patriots’ use of motion at the snap fell from 55% of plays through five drives to less than half that after.
Akin to that October win, O’Brien put receiver DeMario Douglas in motion more than any other skill player. Running across the formation, Douglas drew extra defensive attention and helped generate the Pats’ longest play of the day: a 48-yard screen to backup running back Kevin Harris in the second quarter.

Before that play, Douglas had run multiple fakes and taken an end around. Harris’ catch-and-run — sprung by two excellent blocks by left guard Atonio Mafi — directly set up the Patriots’ first touchdown: a 17-yard Zappe scramble.
The prior drive ended with Zappe’s third interception, a pick caused by a miscommunication with Jalen Reagor. The Bills send their first blitz of the day on that third-and-11 snap.
Buffalo blitzed Zappe sparingly on passing downs, but threatened pressure constantly before bringing creative 4-man rushes that targeted the middle of the Pats’ O-line.
Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard also terrorized the Patriots with “green dog” or “add-on” pressures, meaning whenever he had the running back in coverage, and the back stayed in to protect, Bernard blitzed. He finished with two sacks.
On first down, Buffalo brought real pressure to stunt the Pats’ run game. That held Ezekiel Elliott and Harris to a 30% success rate on first downs until the fourth quarter, which kept the offense off-schedule virtually all game.
The only consistent rushing success the Patriots found was behind right guard Sidy Sow, who played his best game of the season and finished as the only O-lineman to post a clean sheet.

The Pats averaged 4.9 yards per rush behind Sow and right tackle Mike Onwenu compared to 3.4 yards overall on designed runs. Onwenu caved in one side of Buffalo’s defense on the Pats’ only other touchdown: a 6-yard Elliott run.
On the opposite side of the line, the Pats helped backup left tackle Vederian Lowe in pass protection by having backs or tight ends “chip” the Bills’ edge rushers before releasing into routes. The Pats also ran several snaps with max protection (seven or more blockers) to stem Buffalo’s pass rush.
From this view, that plan indicated the coaching staff knew it would sit starting left tackle Trent Brown (healthy scratch) well before the team traveled to Buffalo on Saturday.
While Mike Gesicki caught four passes, his most since Week 2, the Pats offense struggled mightily with him and fellow tight end Pharaoh Brown on the field at the same time. The offense gained 12 yards and threw two picks on a half-dozen passing plays from that grouping compared to an 8.6 yards per play average from three-receiver sets.

Defense

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) scrambles out of the pocket with New England Patriots defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr. (91) in pursuit during the first half of an NFL football game in Orchard Park, N.Y., Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 56% three-corner nickel package, 23% three-safety nickel, 17% dime, 4% base.****
Coverage snaps breakdown: 65% zone, 35% man
Blitz rate: 28.6%
Blitz efficacy: 3.9 yards allowed per dropback, 10% success rate allowed

Player stats

Interceptions: CB Alex Austin
Pass deflections: S Kyle Dugger, CB Jonathan Jones
Pressure: DL Deatrich Wise (sack, 2 hurries), DL Keion White 2 (QB hit, hurry), LB Mack Wilson (QB hit), LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (hurry), S Kyle Dugger (hurry), DB Myles Bryant (hurry)
Run stuffs: Team 2, Anfernee Jennings
Missed tackles: Jennings 3, Austin, Bentley, LB Jahlani Tavai
Penalties: S Jalen Mills (Unnecessary roughness)

Notes

Field position is the short answer for why the Patriots had defensive trouble Sunday. The Bills’ average starting field position on scoring drives was the Patriots’ 35-yard line. That’s found money for any offense.
Aside from that, Buffalo played a safe, smart game around Allen’s accuracy issues and a crippling case of the drops. Start with the run game.
The Bills hammered the Patriots’ league-leading run defense with a long trap or “counter wrap” run play, where an offensive tackle pulls behind his own line and blocks an unblocked edge defender on the end of the opposite side.

In the first half, running back James Cook took most of his carries on counter wraps and averaged 4.3 yards per rush, a yard more than the Patriots defense had allowed on the season.
By the time Josh Allen converted third-and-3 with two minutes left to seal the win, the Bills had called more than a half-dozen counter wrap runs. Allen clinched the win executing that same design with a slight wrinkle.
The wrinkle is called “bash,” meaning “back away,” which tells the running back to run away from the pulling tackle while the quarterback executes an option read that tells him to either hand the ball off or keep it himself.
After handing the ball off most of the game on counter wrap, Allen kept it, followed the pulling tackle and powered through the NFL’s best run defense for a win. Unlike their passing game (5.4 yards per dropback, 41% success rate), the Bills’ rushing attack kept the offense on-schedule Sunday and converted in key situations, including both of their final third downs.

In the fourth quarter, the Patriots also did Buffalo a favor by playing too soft in their zone coverage. Two pitch-and-catch conversions allowed the Bills to kill clock and move the chains, when Allen took free yards on a hitch throw to Stefon Diggs with the nearest cornerback was 10 yards off (second-and-3, 8:59 left) and and short middle pass to Khalil Shakir against Cover 2 (third-and-7, 3:35 left).
The Patriots played zone almost exclusively after Allen struck on a 51-yard pass to tight end Dalton Kincaid early in the third quarter. He caught the Pats in a man-blitz, where safety Kyle Dugger trailed Kincaid right off the line of scrimmage and safety Myles Bryant flew down to cover a swing route, which vacated the deep middle.
That 51-yard connection set up the Bills’ only score of the second half. The Patriots shut down Buffalo’s other drives with a third-and-1 run stuff and a forced fumble Dugger managed at the end of an Allen scramble.
Had the Patriots recovered, they would have been positioned for a go-ahead drive starting at midfield. Instead, the Bills punted and pinned the Pats at their own 3-yard line with less than seven minutes left, field position that virtually guaranteed an eventual punt.
Like Buffalo’s last two opponents, defensive play-caller Steve Belichick started by sending heavy blitz pressure at Allen, who faced extra rushers on more than half his dropbacks in his previous two games. The Patriots blitzed on five of Buffalo’s opening 10 plays.
There was one difference between Belichick and those Chargers and Cowboys, though: he stopped. After those 10 plays, the Patriots didn’t blitz again through halftime, which helped them corral the Bills’ blitz-beaters (i.e. screen passes) and hold them to two field goals on three short fields after Patriot turnovers.

Rookie cornerback Alex Austin also stopped Buffalo, specifically with his first career interception. Austin passed off a post route the Bills wanted to pull him away from the sideline, where they snuck a wheel route behind. Instead, Austin turned back for the wheel and made a spectacular interception.
Up front, second-round rookie Keion White impressed with a QB hit and hurry. White is building out his repertoire as a pass rusher, after spending most of the year relying on a mean bull rush and inside move.
Linebacker Jahlani Tavai fought through injury in a 10-tackle performance that included an impressive TFL and snaps off the ball and on the line of scrimmage.
Ja’Whaun Bentley continues to finish a quietly disappointing season. He had seven tackles to one whiff and so-so play in coverage.

Studs

CB Alex Austin

New England Patriots cornerback Alex Austin (28) intercepts pass during an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

The rookie ex-Bill baited Josh Allen with a veteran play in coverage that Belichick later compared to a play once made against the Patriots by an All-Pro. Austin also added three tackles.

DL Deatrich Wise

Wise was the only Patriot to record multiple pressures, including a first-quarter sack that helped end Buffalo’s opening drive.

WR Jalen Reagor

A kick return touchdown and 39-yard catch. That’ll do.

Duds

QB Bailey Zappe

Three interceptions put the Patriots in what should have been a near insurmountable hole. Can’t have it.

TE Pharaoh Brown

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His only catch ended in a fumble.

Run-blocking

The Patriots averaged just 1.5 yards per carry before contact on designed hand-offs. Aside from Sow, this was a rough outing.

Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. Explosive play rate is one of the most strongly correlated metrics with wins and losses.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs; goal-line defense = three defensive backs; dollar defense = seven defensive backs.