Trump beating Biden among Hispanics and voters under 35, new poll shows
The first national presidential poll released in the new year is out and it doesn’t look particularly good for anyone not named Donald Trump.
According to a Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Monday, the former president not only leads the entire field of Republicans ahead of the soon-to-start primary season, he’s also out-polling President Biden among groups the presumptive Democratic nominee won in 2020 and will need again in order to keep his job beyond next January.
“President Joe Biden heads into the election year showing alarming weakness among stalwarts of the Democratic base, with Donald Trump leading among Hispanic voters and young people,” pollsters wrote.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted via landline and cell phones during the week between Christmas and New Year’s Eve, apparently shows that Biden’s support among Black voters has slipped from the over 90% who voted for him in 2020 to just 63% who say they will vote for him again in 2024.
As if that weren’t bad enough news for the 46th President’s re-election bid, in a reversal of their last match up the poll also shows Trump beating him among polled Hispanic voters by five points, 39%-34%, and among surveyed under-35 voters by four points, 37%-33%. Biden beat Trump among Hispanic identifying voters in 2020 by a 2:1 margin and won the under-35 voting with nearly the same spread.
The difference between now and then, according to the polling, is the interest polled likely voters are showing in any flavor of politician not previously offered. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., formerly a Democratic contender but now running as an independent, pulls about 10% of the vote when included in the survey.
Even when no third party candidate’s name is mentioned, pollsters say, 16% of those polled indicate they will vote for someone other than 77-year-old Trump or 81-year-old Biden. In other words, Biden’s loss of support has not necessarily translated into a Trump gain.
“Although Trump hasn’t grown support among Black voters, he has closed the deficit because third-party voters come off of Biden’s support among Blacks,” David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, told USA Today. “A young voter or a person of color voting ‘third party’ is a vote away from President Biden, and a vote away from President Biden is a vote for Donald Trump.”
Trump may not need those Biden votes, however. The poll shows he beats Biden by 2% among those surveyed when no third party candidate is named. When third party candidates are mentioned by name, Trump’s lead jumps to 3%.
Of course, Trump’s eventual appearance on November’s general election ballot isn’t a foregone conclusion, unless you trust the polling.
The same poll shows Trump’s national lead over his Ambassador to the United Nations, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, stands at 49 points, 62% – 13%.
Trump has maintained this lead since the start of the primary cycle over a year ago and as other candidates failed to find traction among the conservative base. He has done so despite his arrest in multiple jurisdictions following grand jury indictments on a total of 91 felony-level charges, findings his business empire was engaged in widespread financial fraud for decades, and a judge making it abundantly clear that he did, as a matter of fact, “rape” author E. Jean Carroll as that word is commonly understood.
Florida Gov Ron DeSantis, once firmly in second place and nipping at Trump’s electoral heels, has seen his polling numbers collapse over the last several months, with the Suffolk poll showing him at 10% and national polling averages putting him at just 11.2%, tied with Haley. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie comes in behind businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who both average less than 5% nationally and under 7% in Monday’s poll.
The only real primary competition Trump is seeing is in New Hampshire, where the first ballots will be cast on January 23 and where other recent surveys show Haley may be just 3 points behind him.
According to Haley’s campaign, she will be in the Granite State to “kick off the New Year in New Hampshire style” on Tuesday and Wednesday, with town halls scheduled in Rye, Kingston, and Milford, and a meet and greet planned in Londonderry.
Christie, who is polling third in New Hampshire, will be in Hollis on Thursday.