Battenfeld: Josh Kraft faces gaping 50-point deficit to Michelle Wu heading into preliminary election
Josh Kraft will try to cut his now gaping 50-point deficit to incumbent Michelle Wu in Boston’s preliminary mayoral election Tuesday, but may have to reassess his struggling campaign if he can’t make it a competitive contest.
Kraft has for decades been a positive influence on Boston’s youth and is known for his philanthropy, but would he be better off dropping out and saving his millions rather than suffer a humiliating defeat of historic proportions in November?
That’s a question he should ask himself on Tuesday night after Boston’s voters have spoken and narrowed the choices down to just two.
Kraft, son of Patriots owner Robert Kraft, could call for a summit with Wu if his political cause looks hopeless, to mend fences and even put his energy into something more productive, like teaming up with her to resist President Donald Trump.
That’s what presidential candidates do who have no chance of winning – they suspend their campaign and maybe endorse a former rival.
Such a magnanimous move might even help his father’s chances of getting Mayor Wu’s approval to build a new soccer stadium for the New England Revolution in Everett.
Or Kraft could try to find some other way besides electoral politics where he could be a change agent in Boston, like putting his money in a new organization that serves as a watchdog on city government.
This is in the wake of a devastating Emerson College poll showing Wu with 72% in a two-person contest, with Kraft at just 22%. The only other poll taken several months ago had Wu with a 30-point lead on Kraft and two other candidates, so it appears she has expanded her formidable advantage since then.
This despite the fact that Kraft and a super PAC backing him have blanketed the airwaves with millions of dollars of TV ads boosting Kraft’s visibility and attacking Wu.
The polls show just how tough it is – some would say impossible – to oust an incumbent mayor in Boston.
In recent history, Mayors Tom Menino and Ray Flynn rolled up that kind of a margin in their long time at the helm of the mayor’s office.
When he was unopposed for a second term and faced just write-in candidates, Menino received 71% of the vote in 1997. In the next election in 2001, he got 76% of the vote against Peggy Davis-Mullen. In 2005 against Maura Hennigan, Menino dropped to 67% and four years later he won with just 57% against Michael Flaherty.
Former Mayor Raymond Flynn nearly topped Menino in 1991 when he was re-elected with 75% of the vote.
Wu, an unabashed liberal, now could be following those legendary mayors with a resounding win against Kraft.
Kraft has been a positive influence in the community before launching his campaign and generally was well thought of for his charitable contributions to disadvantaged youth in Boston. That’s why it’s so surprising that his mayoral campaign so far has been a dud.
Kraft shook up his campaign by parting with his top advisers Will Keyser and Eileen O’Connor earlier this week. It’s unclear whether another high profile adviser would be willing to run his campaign if he loses on Tuesday by a huge margin.
What has gone wrong with Kraft’s campaign?
His low-key personality isn’t clicking with Boston voters, but that isn’t the main reason for his poor performance.
Kraft has not advanced any bold initiatives or held Wu’s feet to the fire on major issues. He actually agrees with Wu on President Trump, so he hasn’t been able to present a contrast for voters on that major issue.
Wu’s fierce opposition to Trump has helped her forge such a huge margin.
Kraft has actually made Wu a better mayor by forcing her to come up with solutions to Mass and Cass. That could be his legacy in this campaign.
Boston Mayor Michelle Wu (Libby O’Neill/Boston Herald)
