MINNESOTA vs. PENN STATE

When: 2:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Huntington Bank Stadium
TV: CBS
Radio: KFXN-FM, 100.3
Weather: 36 degrees, cloudy, 4 mph east wind
Betting spread: Penn State, minus-11.5

Records: Gophers (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) snapped a four-game winning streak with a 26-19 loss to Rutgers on Nov. 9 and were off last weekend. Penn State (9-1, 6-1) walloped last-place Purdue 49-10 on Saturday to stay well within the 12-team field for the first College Football Playoff.

History: The Gophers are 6-10 against Penn State with the Governor’s Victory Bell on the line since 1993. With Athan Kaliakmanis in his first start in 2022, Minnesota got blown out 45-17 in the “White Out” game in Happy Valley.

Big question: Can the Gophers pull off another upset of a Top 5 Penn State team at home? Memories and what-if thoughts are flooding in from the U’s 31-26 victory over the Nittany Lions in 2019. Minnesota going at least plus-two in turnover margin — like they did five years ago — will be necessary.

Key matchup: Minnesota must identify where Penn State’s versatile playmaker Tyler Warren is on every snap and somehow try to contain him. The 6-foot-6, 260-pound athlete has 965 yards of offense and 10 total touchdowns. He has played everywhere: tight end (243 snaps), slot (168), split wide (53), in the backfield (46) and at quarterback (24), per Pro Football Focus.

Who has the edge?

Gophers offense vs. Penn State defense: Minnesota’s 2019 upset was fueled by explosive touchdowns catches from Tanner Morgan to Rashod Bateman, Tyler Johnson and Chris Autman-Bell. But this year’s team is dead last (134th in the nation) in scrimmage plays over 30 yards — only seven in 10 games. It’s hard to see where many big plays come from on Saturday. … Penn State DC Tom Allen, the former Indiana head coach, has led a top 10 defense in scoring and yards allowed this season. … Minnesota’s offensive line had one of its worst games at Rutgers — 10 pressures and four sacks allowed, while Penn State poses major problems off the edge. DE Abdul Carter, a projected top 10 NFL draft pick, has tallied eight sacks in 10 games and a team-high 36 pressures. Dani Dennis Sutton is no slouch on the other edge. It will be a mighty challenge, especially for redshirt freshman RT Philip Daniels if he gets his third straight start. … QB Max Brosmer has not thrown an interception in 199 attempts, the program’s longest streak since Mitch Leidner across 2014-15. SAF Jaylen Reed is their biggest ball hawk with a team-high five takeaways. … Nittany Lions have given up a stingy 3.2 yards per rush this season, while Minnesota averaged an anemic 1.8 yards on 19 carries at Rutgers. Minnesota will need banged-up RB Darius Taylor and the O-line to be more effective if they are going to pull off an upset. EDGE: Penn State

Gophers defense vs. Penn State offense: OC Andy Kotelnicki, of Litchfield, Minn., is considered a rising star in the coaching ranks. He became known for creativity and explosive plays at Kansas, but hasn’t brought too many big plays to the Lions. They have 20 plays over 30 yards (66th in country). That’s still three times as many as Minnesota. … Gophers DC Corey Hetherman said Kotelnicki’s Penn State has used a stunning 20 different personnel groupings this season and often introduces a new formation each game. A bye week helped the U prepare the volume, and allowed players to get healthier, but it also means in-game adjustments will be necessary for the U to catch up to new wrinkles. … QB Drew Allar was nearly perfect against Purdue, completing 17 of 19 passes for 247 yards and three touchdown through three quarters. … The Gophers biggest injury concern is SAF Aidan Gousby, who left the Rutgers loss with an apparent hamstring injury. He has played more snaps at that position than anyone else this season. … The Penn State WR group doesn’t strike too much concern, but Warren sure does. He has team highs in receptions (67), yards (808) and touchdowns (five). “We got our hands full,” head coach P.J. Fleck said. … Penn State tight ends, including Warren, had two touchdown catches over Minnesota linebackers in the 2022 game. … Penn State boasts one of the best running back duos in the nation: Krytron Allen and Nick Singleton, who has been dealing with injury; they have combined for 1,237 yards rushing after teaming up for 1,654 a year ago. Minnesota’s missed tackles hex can’t resurface. EDGE: Penn State

Special teams: Penn State has replaced all-Big Ten honoree K Alex Felkins with Ryan Barker who is 8 for 9 on field goals with a long of 44. Dragan Kesich has bounced back after a rough patch, but missed his first extra point of his career against Rutgers. He had made 58 before a low snap contributed to a miss in New Jersey. … Aussie punters Riley Thompson and Mark Crawford are averaging 43 yards per punt. … PR Koi Perich is tied for second in Big Ten at 12.9 yard average. EDGE: Penn State

Prediction: The Gophers will honor approximately 20 seniors on Saturday in a big-game atmosphere for the home finale, but it’s hard to see where the big offensive plays will come from in order to overcome being a double-digit underdog. Penn State, 28-20

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