Frederick: Is ‘Good’ the Timberwolves’ ceiling this season? They have two months to prove otherwise
Everyone keeps waiting for a monster run out of the Timberwolves to surge up the Western Conference standings and grab a top-three seed. Surely, it’s right around the corner.
Now seemed like a good time for one. Minnesota went into the all-star break with two consecutive wins and emerged post-break with a win over the banged-up Dallas Mavericks. Trade deadline acquisition Ayo Dosunmu had a few days to better acclimate himself to his teammates and surroundings. Anthony Edwards noted he could play more consistent defense the rest of the way.
The stage was set for sustained success. And then came another egg Sunday against the Philadelphia 76ers. The Wolves were loose defensively and careless on offense, and the result was a blowout loss.
Still waiting.
Edwards was quick to note that Minnesota was without two of its top six players on Sunday, suspended Rudy Gobert and injured Naz Reid. Both figure to be back in uniform Tuesday night in Portland.
But Philadelphia was also down two starters, Paul George and Joel Embiid. That’s the reality for most teams. Frankly, the Wolves have been one of the healthiest teams in the NBA this season. Many of their wins in 2026 have come against teams severely worse off on the injury report.
Which has made it all the more flummoxing as to why Minnesota hasn’t been able to find its gear and shoot up the standings. Instead, the Timberwolves remain locked in a tight quarrel with the likes of Denver, Houston, Phoenix and the Los Angeles Lakers. All of those teams have been without key players for large chunks of the season.
Austin Reaves has missed 26 games for the Lakers, Luka Doncic has missed 12. Aaron Gordon has missed 35 games for Denver, and counting, while Nikola Jokic has missed 16.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s top six players have missed 16 games … combined.
That is a testament to the Timberwolves’ training staff and their players’ willingness and ability to suit up each night. But such availability has yet to lead to consistently positive results. There has been no elongated stretch of results to demonstrate the team’s high-end ceiling, only mere blips of a game here or there against the league’s best.
It all raises the question for these Wolves: Is excellence in there?
They currently sport the NBA’s ninth-best defensive rating, 10th-best offensive rating and ninth-best net rating. All good, nothing great.
Keep in mind, the 2022-23 Denver Nuggets were the only NBA champion since 2012 to lift the trophy with a regular season net rating south of +5.5. Minnesota’s is currently +4.1.
And there’s no excuse, no injuries or preseason roster reshuffling to help explain it. It’s simply a team that struggles to string together excellent performances.
The depth doesn’t appear to be there, nor is the consistency — at the collective and individual levels.
Minnesota has reached the Western Conference Finals the past two seasons. That recent history allots the team a certain level of cachet, a belief that things will get better.
There is still nearly a third of the season remaining to figure things out. But it’s possible the truth is staring us all in the face. Maybe this simply isn’t a title contender, which would fly directly in the face of this team’s stated aspirations.
There are two months left to prove otherwise. This three-game road trip is a good place to start.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – FEBRUARY 20: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves celebrates his three-point basket against the Dallas Mavericks in the fourth quarter at Target Center on February 20, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Mavericks 122-111. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – FEBRUARY 20: Rudy Gobert #27 of the Minnesota Timberwolves draws a foul against Brandon Williams #10 of the Dallas Mavericks (L) in the third quarter at Target Center on February 20, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Mavericks 122-111. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
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