Five things that have to happen for the Twins to return to the postseason

Opening Day is a time of hope, a clean slate that offers players and fans alike the chance to believe that this year, finally, might actually be the year.

Expectations were high for the Twins heading into the 2024 season after experiencing a modicum of playoff success for the first time in nearly two decades the previous fall. But an inconsistent team cratered in the final weeks of the season, falling out of playoff contention after looking October-bound for most of the season.

That’s all in the past now, with the Twins far removed from the bitter taste of last year’s ending. Much of the roster that was among the best in the majors for months has returned. With that being said, what has to happen for the Twins to return to the postseason? Here are five things:

Good health

The Twins entered spring training this February remarkably healthy. If only it had stayed that way during their six-week stay in Florida. A rash of injuries in camp forced a handful of players to the injured list to start the year, including some who are expected to be big contributors.

A moderate hamstring strain will keep third baseman Royce Lewis out for an undetermined period of time — potentially all of April, and beyond.  Brooks Lee, who would have seen time at third in Lewis’ absence, is now sidelined himself with a back injury, leaving the Twins thin in the infield to begin the year.

Brock Stewart, who pegged the second weekend of the regular season as his potential return date, will continue to build himself up from shoulder surgery as he also works past a minor hamstring strain. And fellow right-handed reliever Michael Tonkin is out with a shoulder strain.

Injuries have hit the Twins particularly hard in recent years, and this is certainly not how they wanted to start their season. Good health is imperative for the Twins to return to October.

A step forward from younger hitters

A great number of things had to go wrong for the Twins to go 12-27 in their final 39 games and miss the playoffs. Among them, the Twins didn’t get the production they were looking for group of young hitters that included Lewis, Jose Miranda, Lee and Edouard Julien that tailed off near the end of last season.

With Max Kepler now gone, Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach, who were among the Twins’ most productive hitters throughout last year, will each see expanded roles in 2025.

The Twins will need to see continued development from that group, to supplement what they get from their veterans, Correa and Buxton.

“All of the realities that look great for us all include our young players improving and, really, all of our players being on the field and playing a significant amount of time,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. “That’s always our aim, and development is the name of the game for the Minnesota Twins.”

Pitching depth shines through

The Twins feel good about the rotation they’re rolling out to begin the year — Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson — and for good reason.

But they’re going to need much more than just that group of five arms to get through 162 regular-season games.  By the end of last year, both Ryan and Paddack were hurt and the Twins were running out a rotation that featured three rookies — Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews — and often got starts shorter than five innings, which, in turn taxed the bullpen.

Now, Festa and Matthews, two of the most promising young arms in the organization, will start the year at Triple-A. They both have valuable major league experience for when they’re called upon. The starting depth rolls even deeper than that with multiple other top pitching prospects also ticketed for Triple-A.

“We have options that we really like,” Baldelli said. “You’ve got to maintain that starter depth and, as I’ve said before, you’ve got to continue to develop others. … You like starting the year knowing that you have guys that you trust and guys that you can turn to.”

Bullpen lives up to expectations

Pitching is expected to be a strength of this Twins team, and that doesn’t stop with the rotation.

The bullpen is projected by FanGraphs to be the best in the majors, and even if it doesn’t hit that lofty expectation, the group should still be among the top relief corps. That would go a long way for the Twins’ postseason aspirations.

Carlos Correa #4 of the Minnesota Twins poses for a portrait at Lee Health Sports Complex during the Minnesota Twins Photo Day on Feb. 21, 2025 at the Lee County Sports Complex in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have established themselves as among the best relievers in the game. Cole Sands took a major step forward last year. Stewart, when healthy, has been lights out in the bullpen over the last two years. Louie Varland, now a full-time reliever, provides another intriguing option.

Danny Coulombe, Jorge Alcala, Justin Topa and Randy Dobnak round out the group the Twins will begin the year with.

Three stars play like stars

And now we circle back to health.

For the Twins to return to the postseason, they’re going to need their three stars —Correa, Buxton and Lewis — to play like it.

And that means they’re going to need them to stay on the field, which has been a challenge for the trio.

Plantar fasciitis has derailed Correa in each of the past two seasons. In 2023, he played through it, but the results suffered. In 2024, he showed why the Twins made him the highest-paid player in franchise history with a first half that led to him being an all-star selection. He then missed most of the second half of the season with plantar fasciitis in his right foot.

Buxton has dealt with a string of injuries, many related to his right knee. But he had his first fully healthy offseason in years and looked good this spring. The Twins sorely missed both their production on the field and their leadership late last season, but both those two are healthy heading into the season.

Lewis, who has had his fair share of soft-tissue injuries after two major knee surgeries in earlier years, will be out to begin the year. But when he returns, he will be a focal point in Minnesota’s lineup, along with the two veterans.

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