With Opening Day four days away, it’s officially preseason prediction time. Will the Red Sox finally snap their streak of missing the postseason? Who will win the American League East, the rest of the divisions, and the big awards? And which two teams will be duking it out in the thunderdome for the ‘25 World Series trophy? 

The Herald’s Red Sox beat writers, Mac Cerullo and Gabrielle Starr, discuss.

Gabrielle Starr: We are so close to being back, finally! (I know we’ve had weeks of spring training baseball but it’s not the real thing.) How are you feeling about the 2025 Red Sox, Mac?

Mac Cerullo: Great. This is the most optimistic I’ve been about a Red Sox team in years, probably since at least spring training of 2019. There’s a renewed buzz and energy about this group that’s been missing, and frankly it’s been quite refreshing.

GS: Absolutely, I can’t wait for this team to get started. The Garrett Crochet trade was huge, but the Alex Bregman signing is what really moved the needle. He’s already been a game-changer in so many ways: internally, to paraphrase Jaylen Brown, the energy immediately shifted. Externally, the Red Sox are being perceived like THE Red Sox again. Bregman began forming relationships with the young players and top prospects on Day 1, and the long-term impact of that could be incalculable. He’s also putting up monster numbers in Grapefruit League play.

MC: For sure, and while the Red Sox still have some positional questions to sort out at the time of this writing, Bregman’s presence should ultimately give the club a massive boost, no matter where he winds up playing.

GS: Really, the only question is what Bregman’s arrival means for Rafael Devers.

MC: The best thing would probably be for Bregman to play third and for Devers to DH, but whatever defensive configuration they go with, the offensive piece is clear. Devers will bat second, Bregman will bat third, and the Red Sox lineup will be a whole lot more formidable than it was last year.

Is the AL East up for grabs?

GS: Let’s also revisit some of our predictions from last year as we go through this, too. I picked the Red Sox to be the third-place team, which they were, and predicted the Wild Card race would come down to the wire, which it did; the Sox weren’t technically eliminated until Game No. 158. Of course, they also hung on as long as they did because several other American League teams struggled down the stretch as well.

Funnily enough, you had the Red Sox record and standings wrong, but for different reasons; you said they’d finish 83-79 and in fourth place, and they finished in third place, but with a worse record (81-81)! I’m all in on them this year: 90-plus wins – my gut says 93 – and first place. How about you?

MC: I think I’m starting to believe. The AL East doesn’t look like it’ll be as strong as it’s been in the past, and dare I say the Red Sox might just be the most talented group of the bunch? Put me down for 91 wins and an AL East title.

GS: Shortened 2020 season aside, the last time a team only needed 93 wins to take this division was 2017, when the Red Sox (93-69) and Yankees (91-71) finished at least 10 games ahead of the other three clubs. My gut is telling me that this year will be similar; it feels like there are a lot of question marks in the division. I think the Sox had the most impactful offseason in the division. However, my hot take is that the Blue Jays will be a bigger threat than last year, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who will be a top MVP candidate. If he and the Jays don’t come to an agreement on an extension, he’ll become a free agent next fall, so he should have no shortage of motivation. Toronto also has several more expiring contracts on the roster, including Chris Bassitt, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Max Scherzer, who will want to prove themselves before hitting free agency.

I was wrong to say that the Yankees wouldn’t win the division last season but I think I’ll be right about that this time around. Gerrit Cole was injured when we did our predictions last year, but now he’s out for the entire ‘25 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery this week. They’re also without Giancarlo Stanton, who’s dealing with elbow injuries in both arms, and ‘24 Rookie of the Year winner Luis Gil is shut down from throwing for at least three months with a lat strain. And of course, Juan Soto choosing the Mets is the gift that keeps on giving: not only is it the equivalent of a fourth-degree burn on the Yankees, but it means the Red Sox only have to face him for one regular-season series each year.

MC: So, accountability time. A few weeks ago we had to do our company-wide preseason picks, and discerning readers will probably notice that I picked the Yankees to win the AL East and make the World Series. I want to state publicly for the record that we submitted those picks before news of Cole’s Tommy John surgery broke! I do stand by the Yankees making the playoffs, I think they have enough talent to get in the postseason field, but the way things stand now I think the Red Sox might have a strong case to win the division.

Hunt for Red Sox October

GS: So many fanbases will say it’s so entitled to complain about your team only making the playoffs once in six years, but this is Boston and these are the Red Sox.

MC: Yes, I think if the Red Sox don’t make the playoffs, something will have gone horribly wrong and the season should be considered a massive disappointment. This is the most talent and depth the Red Sox have had since 2018, and given the setbacks that the Yankees have endured and the Orioles’ unwillingness to seize their own moment, I don’t think there’s any reason why the Red Sox can’t compete with the best in the American League. A wild card berth should be considered the bare minimum.

GS: Agreed. I also want to point out two key differences: back then, the farm was already plummeting to the bottom of the rankings from all the trades, and they were in the midst of years of high spending. Now they have more depth than perhaps ever before, and while they went over the luxury tax threshold to sign Bregman, there’s very little money committed to this roster long-term. We both accurately picked the Dodgers to represent the NL in the ‘24 World Series. Who do you see facing off in this year’s Fall Classic?

MC: The Dodgers will be back. I feel pretty confident in predicting that. But since Gerrit Cole went down I no longer feel great about the Yankees. Frankly, I don’t feel great about anyone in the American League. I think there is a pretty sizable gap between the best teams in the AL and the top contenders in the National League. So I’m going to put my faith in one team that has shown recently it has championship DNA, and that’s the Texas Rangers. I think the Rangers should be in line for a big bounce-back season, and I wouldn’t sleep on them getting back to the Fall Classic for the second time in three years.

Awards season

GS: We were both dead-wrong about Brayan Bello getting Cy Young votes, but I was right to put eggs in Chris Sale’s Cy Young basket. It was really nice to see him finally put his comeback season together, even though it wasn’t with the Red Sox. Neither of us saw Wilyer Abreu’s Gold Glove coming either, if anything we thought that honor would go to Ceddanne Rafaela. So how about this year? Who do you see taking home the big awards in 2025?

MC: I think Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani will repeat as their respective league’s MVPs, though I wouldn’t sleep on Bobby Witt Jr. and Juan Soto making strong cases of their own. For the Cy Young Award, I think Garrett Crochet is going to be a monster and will beat out Tarik Skubal for his first major award. On the NL side, Paul Skenes probably would have won last year if he’d started the season in the majors, and I think he might be on the verge of doing things we’ve never seen before. As for Rookie of the Year, New York’s Jasson Dominguez and Los Angeles’ Roki Sasaki feel like the safe picks, but if he gets an extended look, I do believe Roman Anthony could be a star.

GS: I agree that Ohtani will repeat as NL MVP, but I think Vladdy takes AL MVP. I agree that AL Cy Young comes down to Skubal and Crochet, and Skenes is an obvious choice for NL Cy Young but after seeing Spencer Strider mow down the Sox the other day, I’m thinking it’s going to be a heated race; Zack Wheeler is also long overdue. I’d love to see Kristian Campbell live up to (and exceed) the hype by bringing home some hardware; the Red Sox haven’t had a Rookie of the Year winner in almost 20 years, and he’s such a versatile talent. Also, Garrett Whitlock for Comeback Player of the Year would be pretty wonderful.