Compared to this time last year, the Red Sox starting rotation is on much firmer footing.

Entering last winter the question marks were plentiful. Did the Red Sox have a single starter who could be counted on to pitch effectively over an entire season? Brayan Bello was promising but unproven. Nick Pivetta had just spent half the season in the bullpen. Chris Sale couldn’t stay healthy. Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford had never made it through a full season as a starter before.

Now, there is a solid foundation in place. Houck, Crawford and Bello all made 30 starts and topped 160 innings, and Lucas Giolito — acquired to be that reliable inning-eater — should be back after missing the season with an elbow injury. Pivetta’s future is uncertain, but Cooper Criswell should return, as will promising rookie Richard Fitts and recent trade acquisition Quinn Priester. Those guys should hold down the No. 5 spot, allowing Whitlock to shift back to the bullpen, where he’s enjoyed his greatest success and where the team really needs him.

Long story short, the Red Sox could do nothing this winter and still go into next year with a serviceable, above average rotation. But serviceable shouldn’t be the goal, so if Boston is serious about contending in 2025 they need to add. And more importantly, they need to add someone to the front of the rotation.

You can imagine all kinds of potential trade targets, including Chicago’s Garrett Crochet or Seattle’s George Kirby, but if the Red Sox go the free agent route there are two guys who stand above all others: Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. Both will command big dollars this offseason, but both would immediately slot in as Boston’s new ace.

Would one be better than the other? Let’s take a look.

The case for Burnes

If you’re looking for a safe bet, it’s hard to find someone with a safer track record of success than Corbin Burnes.

Since becoming a full-time starting pitcher in 2020 Burnes has finished top-eight in the Cy Young vote every season, winning the National League Cy Young in 2021 with Milwaukee. He’s posted a sub-3.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons, made every start in each of the last three, and this season he proved he could handle the AL East, posting a 2.92 ERA over 194.1 innings after being traded to the Baltimore Orioles.

This guy is a bona fide ace, while there’s always a risk in committing big dollars to a starting pitcher, Burnes is the kind of player who has proven he can elevate a franchise.

Signing Burnes would bring the added benefit of taking him away from the Orioles, kneecapping a top division rival and greatly increasing Boston’s odds in the AL East. The only downside is that Burnes is a righty, and signing him would likely ensure the Red Sox go into 2025 without any left-handed starters once again.

Considering that a rotation of Burnes, Houck, Bello, Giolito and Crawford would probably become the best in the division, maybe that’s not a big deal. But it is a factor the club will have to consider as it weighs its options heading into the winter.

The case for Fried

If the Red Sox are dead set on adding a left-handed starter, then there might not be a better one who is realistically obtainable than Max Fried.

The Atlanta Braves lefty has consistently ranked among the best pitchers in the National League since becoming a full-time starter in 2019. He’s a two-time All-Star who has made at least 28 starts in four of the last five 162-game seasons. During that stretch he’s posted a 3.06 ERA over 824.2 innings, and since 2020 he’s never posted an ERA worse than 3.25 in a season.

His best season came in 2022, when he finished as NL Cy Young runner-up after posting a 2.48 ERA over 185.1 innings.

Fried also boasts copious playoff experience and played a key role in leading Atlanta to the 2021 World Series championship. That fall he threw six shutout innings in the clinching Game 6 win over Houston, and overall Fried has started 12 games in his postseason career. Nobody else on the Red Sox staff has started more than two.

He is also a three-time Gold Glove winner and the last pitcher (besides Shohei Ohtani) to win a Silver Slugger in 2021 before the introduction of the universal designated hitter. That latter point obviously means nothing in today’s game, but it speaks to how well-rounded an athlete Fried is.

If you’re looking for a potential drawback, Fried hasn’t been quite as durable as Burnes. He missed three months in 2023 with a forearm strain, a finger blister and a hamstring strain, and this past summer he spent about three weeks on the IL with nerve irritation in his forearm.

Fried is also a year older than Burnes — he’ll be 31 next season, Burnes is just about to turn 30 — but if there were any lingering concerns about his health, Fried effectively put them to rest by posting a 3.53 ERA over his last 11 starts, including a near complete-game shutout in his final regular season outing.

So who would the Red Sox be better off pursuing? Both pitchers certainly have their pros and cons relative to one another, but either would be huge additions to a starting rotation that might only be one big piece away from ranking among the best in baseball.