Patriots-Dolphins film review: How much can Jerod Mayo fix at 1-4?

There was no mystery surrounding this Patriots’ loss.

It was plain and simple.

The Dolphins took back the win they had served up on a silver platter and beat the Patriots with their own run-first, bend-but-don’t-break formula in a 15-10 finish. A finesse Miami team wore down Jerod Mayo’s team with 193 rushing yards and 10 extra minutes of offensive possession, then sat back and watched Jacoby Brissett and Co. unravel in the final moments. Brissett’s longest completion was his last and his worst: a 25-yarder to Hunter Henry inbounds and short of the end zone that ended the game since the Patriots were out of timeouts.

Call it the final stroke on a masterpiece of mental mistakes. Most of the rest were on coaching, like the Pats’ dozen penalties, play-calling and poor clock management at the end of the first half.

Sitting at 1-4, there’s now just one question: how much can the Patriots fix?

Because the talent is the talent. It’s bad and unchanging. Most Sundays, the Pats will be at a significant disadvantage, the cost of losing several past offseasons in both free agency in the draft. The Texans have already been slated as 7-point road favorites for this weekend, and that spread might grow.

Houston’s defense just held perennial MVP candidate Josh Allen to nine completions in a win over the Bills. What might the Texans do to Brissett? Or Drake Maye, if he makes his first NFL start? And what can the Patriots do for them?

Finding solutions starts with digging into the film. Here’s what the film revealed about the Pats’ latest loss:

Jacoby Brissett

18-of-34 for 160 yards

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett throws under presser by Miami Dolphins’ David Long Jr. during the 3rd quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium . (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Accurate throw percentage: 65.5%

Under pressure: 6-of-16 for 54 yards, 2 sacks

Against the blitz: 1-of-8 for 7 yards, 2 sacks

Behind the line: 7-of-7 for 12 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 6-of-9 for 58 yards

10-19 yards downfield: 3-of-6 for 44 yards

20+ yards downfield: 2-of-7 for 46 yards

Notes: After taking sacks on his first two dropbacks, Brissett looked skittish against pressure, which cost the Patriots yards on their opening possessions. He eventually settled in, but failed to see the field as clearly as he did in Weeks 1 and 2 and had a couple bad misses, particularly downfield. Both factors contributed to his season-worst 65.5% accurate throw percentage, as did spotty footwork.

Often, once Brissett’s preferred targets were covered over the middle, he had a hard time hurting Miami outside the numbers, where he went 5-of-10 for 55 yards. The Dolphins usually blanketed those outside receivers, as well. No surprise, Brissett’s longest completions before the final drive were both passes over the middle (where he operates best) to DeMario Douglas (his best receiver).

That’s where Brissett should live moving forward, hitting quick concepts with 10 yards of the line of scrimmage or play-action shots to the intermediate and deep levels. But that is contingent on Brissett pulling the trigger, something he didn’t do Sunday while anticipating pressure on a couple third downs where Douglas crossed his line of vision or didn’t even have time to get his quarterback’s attention because Brissett had already dumped it off.

Brissett owns a 105.3 passer rating over the short middle this season, per Pro Football Focus. That fell to 76.4 against Miami, which more or less explains his performance. Now, two final notes.

No. 1: not all blame belongs to Brissett. In every game this season, the Patriots have allowed him to get hit or hurried on more than 40% of his dropbacks, which continued Sunday thanks to new center Nick Leverett’s seven pressures allowed. As bad as Brissett was, it’s hard to work the middle when you face regular interior pressure, and he did hit a couple nice throws in the process of getting hit.

No. 2: the receivers must do separate against man coverage. Brissett finished 5-of-13 for 57 yards versus man-to-man, and the Patriots have only 10 completions in their last three games against 1-on-1 coverage. Unacceptable.

Critical areas

Turnovers: Patriots 0, Dolphins 2

Explosive play rate: Patriots 10.9%, Dolphins 8%

Success rate: Patriots 34.5%, Dolphins 41.3%

Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 0-2, Dolphins 1-2

Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 30.5%, Dolphins 45.9%

Despite the overwhelming benefits of blocking a field goal, watching your opponent snap the ball over its quarterback’s head to kill a scoring drive and a 2-0 turnover margin, the Patriots couldn’t overcome their losses in other key battlegrounds.

Steady Miami pressure clearly affected Brissett, especially on third down, and the Patriots failed to score a touchdown on either red-zone trip. Offensively, the Dolphins also did a much better job staying on schedule, as shown by their success rate. Miami also had a higher rate of explosive plays up until they allowed the Patriots’ final two completions, the latter of which they happily gave up because it ended the game.

All in all, despite committing the game’s biggest blunders, the Dolphins out-played Mayo’s crew because the Patriots owned all the little mistakes (12 penalties) in between.

Offense

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots’ Rhamondre Stevenson celebrates his touchdown during the 1st quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium . (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 62% of snaps in 11 personnel, 38% snaps in 12 personnel.***

Personnel production: 38% success rate in 11 personnel, 24% success rate in 12 personnel.

First-down down play-calls: 60% run (47% success rate), 40% pass (20% success rate)

Play-action rate: 10.8%

Not enough run game. Not enough play-action.

Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt went away from the run at the end of both halves, questionable calls that cost the Patriots yards, if not points. His greatest error was pulling away from the run from 11 personnel, which produced a 62.5% success rate and separate rushes of 24, 10, 10, eight and six yards. Meanwhile, the Pats had a dismal 26.5% success rate when passing from three-receiver sets.

Translation: the offense held a major advantage when running from light personnel, and rarely used it.

It’s worth noting game script forced Van Pelt’s hand at times, in that the Patriots got flagged for five offensive holding penalties, which backed them into obvious passing situations. He also unlocked a successful deep play-action shot from midfield, something opponents consistently denied in Weeks 1-4. But Brissett overshot it.

The Patriots could have afforded Brissett a couple more of these bootleg shots, considering both tackles held up fairly well in pass protection. Instead, Van Pelt kept Brissett in a standard dropback pass plan, and he got battered by hits and hurries from the interior. Overall, the Pats frequently fell behind the chains because of penalties and an abysmal first-down passing performance.

That mostly falls on coaching; from fundamentals to game-planning and play-calling.

Player stats

Broken tackles: RB Rhamondre Stevenson 5, RB Antonio Gibson, WR DeMario Douglas

Pressure allowed: C Nick Leverett 7 (sack, 2 QB hits, 4 hurries), Team 4 (sack, 3 hurries), RT Demontrey Jacobs 3 (3 hurries), RG Mike Onwenu 2 (2 QB hits), QB Jacoby Brissett (QB hit)

Run stuffs allowed: None

Drops: WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Douglas

Notes

The Patriots simply cannot pass when they need to. It shows up on third down, during 2-minute drills and inside the red zone, where the game effectively ended with Brissett’s 0-of-4 performance on the penultimate drive.
When an offense is that inept, there is no singular person or position to blame. Blame belongs to everybody. Let’s run it down.
On Sunday, Brissett was too inaccurate (65.5% accuracy rate). The offensive line failed to protect him (45.9% pressure rate allowed). The receivers did not separate nearly well enough, and that has become the under-discussed aspect of this offense.
Wideouts Ja’Lynn Polk and K.J. Osborn rank last and dead last in average separation, per Next Gen Stats, and among the NFL’s worst receivers versus man-to-man coverage at PFF. The film backs it up.

Now, Osborn didn’t play Sunday, and Kendrick Bourne returned for 16 snaps, which is good news considering his history of gaining yards after the catch; another area where Polk ranks dead last across the entire league.
Bottom line: the second-round rookie has been a disappointment well beyond the half-foot he failed to drag inside the end zone on a slightly high throw from Brissett that could’ve won Sunday’s game. The Patriots need more from Polk.
Previous points about the offense’s struggles still stand. Van Pelt’s old-school West Coast passing designs are heavy on isolation routes that require receivers to win 1-on-1. That’s not happening often enough, and the Pats are not incorporating enough motion or switch releases to help their wideouts.
The play-action passes complement the team’s base run plays very well, but the Patriots run play-action at one of the lowest rates in the league. That undercuts the chief benefit of running this type of offense, saps basically all of the explosion from the design of its system, not to mention the lackluster personnel bringing it to life.
The good news: the run game is starting to come alive again, with a franchise record 7.9 yards per carry Sunday. Even better, the outside zone scheme, which is foundational to the entire offense, is finally hitting consistently.

Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson both hit their longest runs of the day (33 yards and 24 yards, respectively) off outside zone. Stevenson’s came on a pin-and-pull variation that incorporates at least one pulling linemen.
Shout-out to wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, who sustained a downfield block to spring Stevenson on the Patriots’ only touchdown and may be deserving of more playing time moving forward. He had two catches for first downs.
Aside from new backup center Nick Leverett, the Patriots’ O-line surprised in pass protection. They may finally have something in towering left guard Michael Jordan, and new right tackle Demontrey Jacobs looked more at home at his old college position, where he hasn’t played in the NFL.
Leverett, though, holds the key. Even if Jacobs and Jordan settle in around Mike Onwenu and left tackle Vederian Lowe (zero pressures, one penalty), interior pressure could keep this offense derailed.

Defense

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots defensive end Keion White reacts as he is called for roughing the passer during the 3rd quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium . (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 67% three-safety nickel package, 13% three-corner nickel, 13% dime, 7% base.****

Coverage breakdown: 69.5% zone, 30.5% man

Blitz rate: 22.2%

Blitz efficacy: 12.5% offensive success rate and 1.5 yards per play allowed

Defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington needed a game like this, even if Miami’s offense without Tua Tagovailoa is mostly harmless. Covington nailed both the personnel usage (a problem at San Francisco) and the coverage plan.

The Patriots wisely lived out of a mix of single-high and two-deep zone coverage, which allowed defenders to keep an eye on mobile quarterback Tyler Huntley and not run ragged against Miami’s constant motion. When they blitzed, the Pats often sent a defensive back, another wise move to match speed with speed considering Huntley’s legs. And good news: the blitz is back!

The Patriots produced their highest defensive success rate when blitzing this season, another function of facing a bad Dolphins offense and well-timed calls by Covington. From a personnel standpoint, the Pats worked mostly out of three-safety personnel, a risk given Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers were out, but youngsters Dell Pettus and Marte Mapu delivered. More on Mapu later.

Player stats

Foxboro, MA – New England Patriots’ Christian Gonzalez celebrates his interception during the 1st quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium . (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Interceptions: CB Christian Gonzalez

Pressure: DL Daniel Ekuale 3 (half-sack, 2 hurries), DL Jaquelin Roy 2 (sack, hurry), OLB Joshua Uche 2 (sack, hurry), OLB Anfernee Jennings (half-sack), DL Keion White (QB hit), LB Jahlani Tavai (DL Jeremiah Pharms Jr. (hurry), LB Christian Elliss (hurry)

Run stuffs: Tavai 2, Team

Pass deflections: Gonzalez, S Marte Mapu, DL Keion White, DL Davon Godchaux

Missed tackles: Mapu 2, S Jaylinn Hawkins 2, LB Jahlani Tavai 2, DL Keion White, DL Deatrich Wise, LB Raekwon McMillan, DL Jeremiah Pharms, Gonzalez

Notes

Ultimately, this defense wore down. The Patriots missed 11 tackles, one of their highest totals in four years, and Miami had four drives of eight plays or longer before finally mowing the Patriots down on a game-winning, 15-play march.
The Dolphins ran six straight times before reaching the end zone, hammering the same edges that the 49ers targeted in Week 4. Miami averaged 4.6 yards per carry going off-tackle, and Mayo admitted fatigue played a factor post-game.
The Patriots made a couple key adjustments to counter their perimeter run problems before tiring out: flexing linebacker Jahlani Tavai onto the edge more frequently and playing a 3-4 alignment without 3-4 base personnel.

Safeties Marte Mapu, Jaylinn Hawkins and Dell Pettus took turns rotating into the box to play inside linebacker in this front, a staple of the Patriots’ for years, but not a given Sunday considering those duties used to fall to Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers.
Mapu, who wore the defense’s green dot as its primary signal-caller, also took snaps on the edge, as the safety in single-high calls and one half of two-deep coverages. He played 100% of the defensive snaps in his season debut, a complete shock for someone who prior to last week hadn’t practiced in two months.
Playing through three safeties allowed the Pats to keep enough speed to contend with the Dolphins receivers and backs, arguably the fastest in the league. Mapu keyed this plan and the defense’s organization, which can get tricky when they disguise.
One particularly impressive snap from Mapu: on Joshua Uche’s sack that forced a field goal in the first half, he faked a double team pre-snap, jumped to rob a low crossing route and then dropped deep to help double Tyreek Hill before Huntley went down. Impressive stuff.
Christian Gonzalez snatched his first-quarter interception on a zone blitz, a well-timed call and great recognition by the budding star. The Dolphins beat him on a skinny post on the previous drive, and Gonzalez jumped this one for a pick.

Gonzalez also took Hill on the Patriots’ snaps of man-to-man coverage and allowed just three catches in their matchups, while tallying another pass breakup.
When Miami quarterback Tyler Huntley hurt the Patriots passing, it was often over the middle, where he went 11-of-14 for 146 yards. Part of that was the Dolphins’ attacking a soft spot in the Pats’ two-deep zone, other times their linebackers lost assignments, including Christian Elliss who committed a fourth-quarter pass interference penalty that sustained the game-winning drive.
Elliss, a core special teamer, is now the Patriots’ lone linebacker in dime personnel groupings (those with six defensive backs). He flashed good range and physicality when blitzing, but failing to find running back Raheem Mostert before his pass interference was his most notable play of the game.
The Patriots’ four-man rush remains an issue, but at least this week the Pats kept a mobile quarterback in the pocket. Huntley finished with three carries for seven yards.
A major issue: no Ja’Whaun Bentley. The Patriots’ run defense is far less sturdy with a thumping inside linebacker, who can take on offensive guards 1-on-1 and win. Bentley’s replacement, Raekwon McMillan, got washed out by Miami’s offensive lineman over and over again on long runs.

Terrible game for Keion White. His pair of 15-yard penalties on the same third-quarter drive, which helped the Dolphins score three points, was inexcusable.

Special teams

The good: Brenden Schooler’s masterful punt block in the second quarter that led to a field goal attempt.
The bad: Joey Slye going 1-of-2 because he missed the aforementioned field goal from just 33 yards away.
The bad pt. II: Bryce Baringer booming half of his six punts for touchbacks and just one inside Miami’s 20-yard line.
The ugly: Joshua Uche getting caught as the 12th man on the field during Miami’s second drive, giving the Dolphins new life. How Uche didn’t get off in time and/or the Patriots didn’t call a timeout to avoid the penalty was mind-blowing.

Studs

S Marte Mapu

Sure, he missed two tackles. And his run defense was unimposing. But this debut was more than anyone could have expected.

LG Michael Jordan

The Patriots may have found something in the 6-foot-6, ex-Bengal and Panther. Jordan posted a clean sheet in pass protection, plowed open rushing lanes for Stevenson and Gibson and was one of two O-lineman not whistled for a penalty.

Duds

C Nick Leverett

Post-game, Leverett took full accountability for the worst individual pass-protecting performance of the young season. That performance included seven pressures allowed, plus a questionable false start and a definite holding penalty.

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DL Keion White

Since his hot start, the bar has been raised for the Patriots’ new best pass rusher, and White hasn’t sniffed it. He took two dumb penalties for 30 yards on the same that led to a Miami field goal in the third quarter. White also missed a tackle.

TE Hunter Henry

Henry had as many penalties in the final 2:10 of a close game as he did catches. Inexcusable mental mistakes from a core veteran and new captain.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. 

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six; dollar defense = seven.

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