Tropical Storm Milton was near hurricane strength on Sunday morning and is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane that will hit Florida’s Gulf Coast by midweek, bringing potentially “life-threatening” storm surge, destructive winds and flooding rainfall, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Initial hurricane watches and storm-surge watches are likely to be issued for parts of Florida within hours, experts said Sunday. And moisture ahead of the “intense hurricane” will begin to impact Florida late this weekend before Milton makes its approach. Milton is expected to bring rain totals of 5 to 8 inches, with localized areas seeing potentially up to 12 inches, across portions of the Florida peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night.

A flood watch is in effect for all of South Florida beginning Sunday morning and lasting into Thursday morning.

“Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week,” forecasters said. Forecasters warned residents from the Panhandle to the Keys to watch the progress of the storm closely.

The forecast track for Milton is particularly concerning for the Tampa Bay region. The forecast path on Sunday morning showed the storm moving directly into and over the bay as a major hurricane.

“This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the Tampa Bay area,” warned AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “Milton could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane with extreme impacts. This hurricane could create a life-threatening storm surge. Please make sure your family and in friends in this area are prepared.”

National Hurricane Center forecasters said Milton will encounter complex atmospheric conditions that make its exact forecast difficult to nail down, including the intensity by the time it reaches Florida. “The intensity guidance continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak intensity [over the next three days], with possibilities ranging from Category 1 to Category 5 strength,” the hurricane center forecasters said.

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 35 counties in advance of the storm, including Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties. The others are Brevard, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Marion, Martin, Monroe, Okeechohee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Sumter, and Volusia counties.

Since many of those counties are still recovering from Hurricane Helene, DeSantis asked the Florida Division of Emergency Management and the Florida Department of Transportation to coordinate all available resources and personnel to supplement local communities as they expedite debris removal.

Though no coastal watches or warnings were in effect on Saturday, the hurricane center said the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the system’s progress.

As of 5 a.m. Sunday, Tropical Storm Milton was located about 845 miles west-southwest of Tampa, moving east at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, up from 40 mph late Saturday. It is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night, and then a major hurricane as it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for Celestun to Cancun, Mexico.

Currently, the forecast calls for Milton to major hurricane in the next 60 hours.

By Tuesday, Milton is expected to speed up, and it should reach the west coast of the Florida peninsula by midweek. Meanwhile, the moisture ahead of Milton is likely to bring heavy and prolonged rainfall to South Florida starting late Sunday through Monday.

Conditions will allow for “steady to rapid strengthening over the next few days,” forecasters said. “The intensification is likely to be slower during the next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated.”

Richard Boggs loads up sandbags at Floyd Hull Stadium in Fort Lauderdale on Saturday. (Mike Stocker/South Florida Sun Sentinel)

Various forecast models that the hurricane center is using for  tracking the system  — known as “spaghetti models” — are showing the path hitting Florida’s west coast and moving east across the peninsula through Central Florida.

A stronger, slower storm would likely hit further north; a faster, weaker storm would hit further south, the models show.

“Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur … over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week,” National Hurricane Center forecasters said. “In addition, increasing winds and building seas are also forecast.”

The weather pattern is complex, consisting of three waves: the remnants of a tropical Pacific system moving east over southern Mexico and Central America, a wave in the western Caribbean Sea off the Yucatan Peninsula, and a building low-pressure system in the Bay of Campeche west of the Yucatan.

The system is carrying a lot of moisture, and will bring heavy rainfall to parts of the Florida already saturated by Hurricane Helene. As much as a foot of rain could fall in some areas.

Currently, clouds and showers/thunderstorms over portions of South Florida are associated with a broad area of low pressure area not tied to Milton. Heavy rainfall and flooding is expected across South Florida through early next week. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area from Sunday morning to Thursday morning.

The projected impact of Milton to the South Florida region is still being assessed, but is generally expected to be late Tuesday through Wednesday.

Other tropical systems

Far in the Atlantic, Hurricane Leslie formed on Saturday and Hurricane Kirk continued moving north-northeast as a Category 2 major hurricane. Neither is a threat to land.

Leslie, located 875 miles west of Africa’s southernmost Cabo Verde Island, had a maximum sustained wind speed of 85 mph and was moving north-northwest at 10 mph as of 5 a.m. Sunday. In the five-day track, forecasters are projecting the storm to turn to the northwest, away from the Caribbean, and increase in forward speed. Leslie may begin weakening sometime in the next day or so.

The forecast cone for Hurricane Leslie as of 5 a.m. on Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (National Hurricane Center/Courtesy)

“The ridge will continue to steer Leslie the next several days with a turn more northwestward, with an increase in forward speed by the middle of the forecast period,” forecasters said.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Kirk degraded to a Category 2 hurricane Sunday with its maximum sustained winds dropping to 105 mph. Though Kirk is not near land, it is forecast to bring large swells to the U.S. East Coast.

The forecast cone for Hurricane Kirk as of 5 a.m. on Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (National Hurricane Center/Courtesy)

At 5 a.m. Sunday, Kirk was located about 1,270 miles west-southwest of the Azores and was moving north-northeast at 23 mph.

Long-range forecasts show Kirk arcing north and west toward Europe.

Finally, a tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa on Wednesday or Thursday. It could develop as it moves westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. It had a 30% chance of forming in the next seven days as of 2 a.m. Sunday.

The next named storm will be Nadine.

Information from the Associated Press was used in this report. Staff writer Robin Webb contributed to this report.

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