Alex DeMarban | (TNS) Anchorage Daily News, Alaska

Major Alaska resource projects, and the land they could be built on, may be at stake in the presidential election.

They include drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and elsewhere in Alaska, logging in the Tongass National Forest, and cutting a 200-mile road through Alaska wilderness to access the Ambler mining district.

President Joe Biden’s administration has put the brakes on those and other major Alaska resource development projects, reversing efforts by former President Donald Trump to advance those initiatives.

Trump, with his aggressive focus on resource extraction, can be expected to renew his efforts in Alaska if he wins office, former officials say. But they add that it won’t be easy to reverse many of Biden’s actions, especially if Trump overhauls the federal workforce needed to properly make changes, they say.

If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, she’ll likely retain many of Biden’s actions in Alaska, they say. But her administration could still be dealing with major Alaska issues, such as a second oil and gas lease sale in the 19.6-million-acre Arctic refuge, they say.

The election also raises questions about the fate of other perennial Alaska projects, such as the Pebble mineral prospect that was stopped by the Environmental Protection Agency last year, or the giant Willow oil field that was approved by the Biden administration.

For years, Alaska’s big projects and land battles have been subject to shifting politics, depending on which party’s candidate occupies the White House. The back-and-forth has a chilling effect on investment in the state, making it difficult for companies to know whether a prospect has any chance of winning federal approval, resource advocates say.

Andrew Mergen, a visiting professor at Harvard Law School and retired Justice Department attorney who has handled litigation on major Alaska land issues, said the state plays an important political role in presidential elections because it captures the American imagination.

“For people who are Democrats, it’s the incredible natural value and parks and animals, and people love that,” he said. “And for people on the Republican bench, it looks like there’s a lot of resources and a lot of ways to make money.”

“But I do think that a lot of these disputes are maybe targeted about getting the base up, and whether that base is motivating environmental groups or motivating red-state voters, that’s part of what’s going on,” he said.

More Arctic drilling under Trump?

Trump has promised to “drill, baby, drill” on Day One of a second term.

He likes to tout the oil and gas potential in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, though with extreme exaggeration. He has said he would restart drilling there.

The former Trump administration in its closing days issued the first-ever oil and gas leases in the refuge, after a lease sale there generated little interest.

Biden, on his first day as president, began taking steps that later led to the cancellation of the leases in 2023.

William Perry Pendley, former acting director of the Bureau of Land Management under Trump, said he thinks Trump should lift the suspension of those leases and also renew his previous efforts to develop Alaska’s resources.

“He’s promised the American people that he’d cut the cost of living and transportation,” Pendley said. “One of the ways to decrease those costs is develop American energy. There’s a tremendous amount of not just energy, but minerals available in Alaska.”‘

Pendley helped write a special section calling for “immediate action” on Alaska issues in Project 2025, a transition document designed to aid Trump if he returns to the White House.

Pendley said in a recent phone interview that Trump had “nothing do with Project 2025,” which was written by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. Trump has disavowed the document.

Pendley’s section on Alaska calls on Trump to reinstate his plan for the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, which opened millions of acres to potential oil leasing. Biden reversed that effort and has implemented strict limits in the reserve.

“What that chapter lays out regarding Alaska is to continue doing what we tried to do with Alaska in the Trump administration, which will make it possible for Alaska to benefit from the natural resources that are available there, and for Alaska to finally get what was promised to it when it came into the Union,” Pendley said.

What about Ambler Road and Pebble?

Pendley in Project 2025 also calls on Trump to again permit construction of the 200-mile Ambler Road to a mineral district in Northwest Alaska. The Biden administration rejected a permit, reversing a decision under Trump approving the permit.

Brett Hartl, with the Center for Biological Diversity Action Fund, said Trump could attempt to reissue the Ambler Road permit.

But it wouldn’t be easy.

“It would take several years,” he said. “And they would be vulnerable to court challenge if they attempted to rush it.”

Mergen, the visiting professor with Harvard Law, said any major reversals Trump might pursue in Alaska could take so long they may not be completed in a single term.

It’s “infinitely harder” to achieve permitting for ground-disturbing activities like drilling or mining than to stop those activities, he said.

“The rulemaking and administrative processes that govern extractive use, whether it’s drilling or mining, they take a lot of time,” he said. “So I think it’s going to be a bit difficult to unwind these things in a meaningful way in four years.”

As for the Pebble copper and gold project in Southwest Alaska, it likely will not be developed, said Matthew Berman, a professor of economics at the Institute of Social and Economic Research at the University of Alaska.

“It just has too many strikes against it,” Berman said.

The Environmental Protection Agency halted Pebble last year. Project developer Pebble Partnership and the state of Alaska are suing to overturn the decision.

Pebble’s chief executive said that if a court ruling is in Pebble’s favor, the company is more likely to find an opening to advance the mine under Trump than Harris.

“I have a positive feeling about the court cases and if we get a positive decision, I think it’s more likely we could sit down with the Trump administration and say, ‘OK, the government exceeded its authority, what can we do to make this project work?’ ” said John Shively, chief executive of Pebble Partnership.

Logging in the Tongass?

Berman also said Trump will face challenges pushing Alaska projects forward because of regulatory and legal hurdles.

Southeast Alaska’s Tongass National Forest, one of the last intact temperate rainforests in the world. (Justin Graff/Dreamstime/TNS)

Trump could attempt to again repeal the Roadless Rule in Southeast Alaska’s Tongass National Forest to open up logging potential, undoing Biden’s reversal.

But procedures and timelines may not leave much time for timber sales, Berman said.

“The ship of state is a big ship and it takes a while to turn it around,” he said. “There’s only so much that can be accomplished with a leadership change, and they take a lot more time in Alaska and especially in the Arctic.”

Trump has promised to gut the federal workforce, which has a large presence in Alaska.

Trump will likely need many federal workers to remain in place if he wants to quickly pursue changes, Berman said.

“If inexperienced people are trying to write permits, it will take longer,” Berman said.

Renewables at risk?

More consequential for Alaska will be the next president’s position on climate change, Berman said.

Trump has vowed to repeal key parts of the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s 2022 climate law. Harris provided the tie-breaking vote for the law.

If Trump wins, “I see absolutely nothing happening on climate policy for another four years, and that has worldwide consequences,” Berman said.

If Harris wins, she’s expected to build on Biden policies that in Alaska support renewable energy and related efforts such as transmission improvements, said Isaac Vanderburg, chief executive of Launch Alaska, a nonprofit focused on accelerating Alaska’s energy transition.

The climate law has brought large sums of money into the state, he said.

Agencies have committed to spending much of the money in the law, he said, but Trump could attempt to delay or halt future spending commitments.

“It’s concerning to me from a renewable energy perspective,” he said of Trump’s plans.

Sustained policies under Harris?

If Harris wins, there may be holdover items for her administration to work on in Alaska.

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It’s possible a Harris administration will get the chance to weigh a lease sale in the refuge, said Hartl with the Center for Biological Diversity Action Fund.

Congress has set a deadline for a lease sale before the end of this year.

But that could be delayed, Hartl said. Agencies frequently miss congressional deadlines, he said.

“I think if anything, it would probably get punted into next year,” Hartl said. “It just seems like there’s a ton of work that they still have to do because they were in a pretty significant legal deficiency from the first sale.”

ConocoPhillips’ controversial Alaska oil field, Willow, likely won’t be affected if Harris wins, Hartl said.

It’s been approved under Biden, he said. ConocoPhillips has started construction at the field. Oil is expected to begin flowing in four years.

Conservation groups like his had a chance to stop Willow, he said. The Biden administration chose not to, he said.

“So I would suspect that Willow will continue,” he said.

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