Opening Day is less than two weeks away, and the vibe surrounding the Red Sox fanbase can be summed up as tepid at best. There’s very little excitement around this club, and the widespread view around the game is the Red Sox are an average to below average group likely to finish last in the AL East for the third straight season.

It’s hard to blame anyone for feeling that way, but while it’s easy to get caught up in the doom and gloom that’s defined Red Sox fandom the past four years, it’s just as easy to overlook the warning signs developing around Boston’s AL East rivals.

Even if the Red Sox don’t meaningfully improve, are we sure they’re destined for another last place finish?

There are many reasons why Boston has struggled recently, but an often overlooked factor is the AL East’s evolution into a historically deep and dominant gauntlet. Teams of Boston’s quality usually finish in third or fourth place, but with all four of the AL East’s other clubs establishing themselves as playoff contenders the Red Sox simply haven’t been able to keep up.

But nobody stays on top forever, and entering the new season most of Boston’s divisional rivals have reason for concern.

The Orioles are going to be good. Even if Baltimore wildly underachieves there is no reason to expect the club falling all the way back to the basement. Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson won’t let that happen, and the Orioles have amassed enough talent elsewhere to survive if those guys were to go down.

But can the same be said for Tampa Bay? Despite their financial limitations the Rays have consistently ranked among the best teams in baseball and have a knack for taking previously unheralded pitchers and turning them into dudes. They’ll have their work cut out for them this year, because with Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen all still recovering from elbow surgery and Tyler Glasnow now playing for the Dodgers, the Rays will be relying heavily on prospects like Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and Taj Bradley to shoulder the load in the rotation. Not to mention the Rays will be without All-Star shortstop Wander Franco, whose future in baseball is in serious doubt.

As for the Blue Jays, they remain immensely talented but are starting to get a bit older. Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk are still in their prime, but George Springer and Kevin Kiermaier are going to be 34 and new addition Justin Turner will be 39. The drop-off from Matt Chapman to Isiah Kiner-Falefa at third base is also steep, and most of the Blue Jays projected starting pitchers will also be 30 or older by June.

There isn’t much help coming from within Toronto’s farm system (ranked No. 20 by The Athletic), so while the bottom might not fall out this year, the Blue Jays have probably already passed their peak and could soon begin showing signs of slipping.

And then there are the Yankees, who endured their worst season in recent memory last season and limped to an 82-80 showing. They responded appropriately over the offseason, trading for Juan Soto and addressing their biggest weaknesses, but New York now has the biggest question mark of all.

Gerrit Cole out 1-2 months

In a season where just about everything else went wrong, Gerrit Cole was the rock New York could always rely on to get the job done. The Yankees ace won his first Cy Young Award after going 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA and 222 strikeouts over 209 innings, and this year the hope was he could anchor the club’s revamped rotation and help pitch New York back into the playoffs.

Now Cole’s status is shrouded in uncertainty.

Earlier this week the Yankees announced Cole will miss one to two months due to inflammation in his right elbow, and while additional testing determined Cole won’t need Tommy John surgery, the incident was an alarming development and will warrant close monitoring as Cole rehabs and ramps back up later this spring.

Even if Cole avoided a worst-case scenario, the Yankees rotation suddenly looks a lot shakier.

Barring any further developments, New York is expected to open the season with Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt and an inexperienced fifth starter to be determined in the rotation. Rodon was an All-Star from 2021-22 but endured a nightmarish first season in the Bronx last season, and Stroman has a strong track record but was limited to 24 innings in the second half due to hip and rib injuries. Cortes is also coming off a down year and Schmidt was solid but not spectacular, so if Cole misses significant time and Rodon and Stroman can’t pick up the slack the Yankees could have real problems.

Make no mistake, this year it’s championship or bust for the Yankees, who are expected to carry a payroll approaching $300 million and who invested significant prospect capital for one year of Soto. At full strength the Yankees are a playoff team, but without Cole — or Aaron Judge, whose health can’t be taken for granted either — things could easily unravel in New York.

If that happens, or if Tampa Bay or Toronto start slipping, the Red Sox could be positioned to take advantage. They may not be much better than they were last year, but they probably won’t be worse, and in a slightly weaker AL East that could mean the difference between another sub-.500 season or 85 wins and a Wild Card berth.

Padres win Cease sweepstakes

You’ve got to hand it to the San Diego Padres. Over the past few years they’ve consistently ranked among the boldest clubs in baseball, and even in an offseason where they’re saddled with significant financial hurdles, they still found a way to make an enormous splash.

Earlier this week the Padres officially won the Dylan Cease sweepstakes, landing the former Chicago White Sox ace in a blockbuster trade. The Padres gave up four prospects in the deal, including right-hander Drew Thorpe (MLB Pipeline’s No. 85 prospect), outfielder Samuel Zavala, right-hander Jairo Iriarte and right-hander Steven Wilson.

Cease has consistently ranked among the most dominant pitchers in baseball over the last three seasons, and while he’s coming off a bit of a down year he still posted some impressive numbers. Cease, who was the AL Cy Young Award runner-up in 2022, has posted three consecutive years with more than 165 innings and 200 strikeouts and last year had 214 strikeouts over 177 innings despite a somewhat underwhelming 4.58 ERA.

While the Padres gave up three of their top 10 prospects in the deal, one of them only joined the organization this winter. Drew Thorpe, the main prize going to the White Sox, was one of the players obtained in December’s Juan Soto blockbuster, which viewed over the long-run has basically allowed the Padres to completely revamp their starting rotation.

Basically, in exchange for one year of Soto (plus outfielder Trent Grisham and three incumbent prospects), the Padres obtained two years of Dylan Cease, plus starters Michael King, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez and catcher Kyle Higashioka. Cease and King will both open the season in the rotation along with Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, and Brito and Vasquez are both among the top contenders for the final spot.

Taken together that’s a pretty good haul, and even if the Padres haven’t spent the way we’ve seen in recent years, they’ve had as impactful an offseason as any club outside of the Dodgers. Whether that translates into a return to the postseason remains to be seen, but San Diego has once again put itself in position to compete.

White dominates in Spring Breakout

Rowley’s Thomas White was one of the top high school players in the country when he was drafted No. 35 overall out of Phillips Andover by the Marlins last summer, and he’s wasted no time in establishing himself as an arm to watch in Miami’s system.

Friday afternoon White got the start in the Marlins’ Spring Breakout prospect showcase and he made quite an impression, striking out three St. Louis Cardinals prospects who are taking part in big league camp in his scoreless inning of work. White worked around a walk to Masyn Winn by striking out Victor Scott II and Pedro Pagés with a slider-curve and Thomas Saggese with a 95 mph fastball.

“I feel great, a little nervous going into it,” White said on the television broadcast following his performance. “But after the first pitch it was smooth sailing, I was really happy about it.”

White currently ranks as Miami’s No. 2 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, and after being drafted last summer he worked his way up to Low-A Jupiter, where he started a game in the team’s championship run. The 19-year-old will likely start the season there again with an opportunity to work his way up further through the system as he continues adjusting to the rigors of a full professional season.

In addition to White, the Marlins-Cardinals Spring Breakout showcase also featured another local in Boston’s Joshua Baez. The former Dexter Southfield star got the start in right field for the Cardinals prospects, going 0 for 1 with a walk and a run scored.