Who will walk away a winner at the Academy Awards
Last summer, “Oppenheimer” and “Barbie” were released, and instead of sucking the life blood out of each other, they formed a phenomenal co-entity known as “Barbenheimer,” seeming to give each other strength at the box-office and reawakening movie theaters after the industry-wide coma of the pandemic. Greta Gerwig’s Mattel-based comedy “Barbie” went on to earn $1.4 billion at the box-office, while Christopher Nolan’s more cerebral and supposedly less audience-pleasing “Oppenheimer” earned just shy of $1 billion. In January, “Oppenheimer” received 13 Academy Award nominations, while “Barbie” received 8. Notably “Barbie” did not receive nominations for director Gerwig nor for acting lead Margot Robbie, while “Oppenheimer” snagged both for Nolan and lead actor Cillian Murphy as well as supporting actor and three-time nominee Robert Downey Jr, who is expected to win.
This and the wins that “Oppenheimer” has chalked up on the precursor circuit are the reasons why I believe that “Oppenheimer” is going to sweep the awards on March 10. I don’t believe that “Barbie” is the victim of some anti-female conspiracy. Better films and performances took precedence.
I believe that “Oppenheimer” is going to win best picture against “American Fiction,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Barbie,” “The Holdovers,” (the deeply flawed) “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Maestro,” “Past Lives,” “Poor Things” and “Zone of Interest.” “Oppenheimer” will also win 8-time nominee Nolan his long-awaited first Oscar. Actually, he will win two Oscars tonight, for picture and director.
While Paul Giamatti should win for his powerful performance as a 1970s Boston private school teacher in “The Holdovers,” the precursor wins force me to predict that Irishman Cillian Murphy will win for his admittedly complex and sympathetic efforts as the father of the atom bomb in “Oppenheimer.”
The best actress race has tightened in recent weeks. Five-time nominee Annette Bening (“Nyad”) is a long shot at best. BAFTA winner Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) was the front runner. But Golden Globe and SAG winner Lilly Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) has pulled alongside. German actress Sandra Huller (“Anatomy of a Fall”) has reportedly surged. But I think Gladstone is going to take it.
In the supporting actor category, we have Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”), Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”), Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) and Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”). Frequent precursor winner and 3-time nominee Downey Jr. will take the prize, in part because for years he was the best actor in all those Marvel films.
The supporting actress race might be the easiest to call. Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”), Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”), America Ferrera (“Barbie”) and Jodie Foster (“Nyad”) will go home empty-handed. The very deserving Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”), who has been checking off one precursor win after another, will take the gold.
While “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” is the best of the five nominees for animated feature, including “Elemental,” “Nimona,” “Robot Dreams” and “The Boy and the Heron,” Hayao Miyazaki’s Studio Ghibli effort “The Boy and the Heron,” which has been on a winning streak, will win.
I believe the Academy will try to spread the wealth (and break “Oppenheimer” ‘s stranglehold on the awards) in the best adapted screenplay category by handing the statuette to Cord Jefferson’s very timely satire “American Fiction” (which has five nominations), making it the winner. Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall” will be the winner of the original screenplay, winning over “The Holdovers,” “Maestro,” “May December” and “Past Lives.” I also predict that tonight’s awards ceremony will be the most watched show since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020.
Lily Gladstone, center, in a scene from “Killers of the Flower Moon.” (Apple TV+ via AP)