Picks for Oscars 2024: What will win, what should win in a year of movie riches
It’s peculiar to look back at the movie year 2023, so full of gratifying work in so many directions, from the vantage point of relatively early 2024. There isn’t enough in theaters these days, certainly not enough good stuff. In the big-budget commercial realm, “Dune: Part Two” is an outlier, not a harbinger. It’s a hit right now, as opposed to its original 2023 release date, due to writers’ and actors’ strikes, and to the stonewalling of producers and streaming companies expecting employees to come to the studio definition of “their senses.”
From our vantage point, last year feels more like last century. Did it really happen? Did the Barbenheimering of the universe really happen? How did a quiet, mellow beauty of a (relatively inexpensive) A24 release, “Past Lives,” find a global audience? It was almost as if the pandemic was a bad, collective dream, and we woke up as one and thought let’s go to the movies! I’ve quoted the play before, but not this particular line: In “Once in a Lifetime,” the 1930 Kaufman & Hart satire on Hollywood at an earlier crisis point, a studio mogul pines for the pre-talkie days when he was rich, on top and “even if you made a good picture, you made money.”
That was 2023. Even some good ones made money. But there’s a flip side to everything. The year that gave us the probable multi-Oscar winner “Oppenheimer” (worldwide gross: $958 million) indicates that certain phenomena cannot expect an encore. Christopher Nolan’s big noise, coupled with Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” (worldwide gross: just shy of $1.5 billion), amounts to tragically little in the conglomerative debt loads blocking the movie industry’s view of a bright future.
Take “Barbie.” Its profits mean little to Warner Bros. Discovery. CEO Jeff Zaslav has billions to go before he sleeps, at least untroubled, and before the company stock recovers from its debt load. He’s vexed by the “generational disruption we’re going through,” as he said on a W.B.D. earnings call last year, quoted in a New York Times Sunday Magazine feature.
When you’re stuck with “a streaming service that’s losing billions of dollars,” he said, “it’s really, really difficult to go on offense.”
Yes. And when a billion-dollar smash means so little to a too-large company’s bottom line, something has gone crazy wrong with the business itself.
So we wait for miracles this year, and for a stronger, fuller slate in 2025. Sunday’s Academy Awards ceremony marks Hollywood’s 96th festival of statuettes and humility. We’re still here, some of us watching, even. And while we’re still here, if we can’t take the time to cheapen the entire medium with a few Oscar night predictions, then we really have lost our way.
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST PICTURE
“American Fiction”
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”
What will win: “Oppenheimer.” Made too much money to ignore; a tastefully assaultive technique kept it moving; also mostly very good.
What should win: “Past Lives.” My favorite of 2023, therefore deserving of the best picture Oscar. It’s automatic.
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”
What will win: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer.” Second directorial nomination, after “Dunkirk.” A new-style directorial superstar devoted to both film and digital and the largest possible screen experience.
What should win: Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest.” Because he co-wrote and then visualized a striking reminder that evil is an all-too-human construct.
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
What will win: Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer,” and I only recently changed my prediction on this. Which means I’m probably wrong.
What should win: Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction.” Like Murphy, a first-time nominee; also terrific in nearly everything, including the leading role here, largely reactive but in Wright’s hands, more than a sounding board.
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, “Nyad”
Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
What will win: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon.” Yes, it’s more of a supporting turn, and the film doesn’t give her character the emphasis warranted in the second half. But she’s excellent.
What should win: Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall.” A great, versatile genius at casual-seeming complexity.
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
What will win: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer.” Good work; disguised just enough (baldpate, specs) to wow people.
What should win: Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction.” Or, yes, Mark Ruffalo for “Poor Things,” the wittiest simultaneous under/overacting of 2024.
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
America Ferrera, “Barbie”
Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
What will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers.” Very, very good, even if the role lacks a third dimension as written; she has won everything under the sun leading up to the Oscars.
What should win: America Ferrera, “Barbie.” I’m alone on this, but there it is.
NOMINATIONS FOR ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“The Holdovers”
“May December”
“Maestro”
“Past Lives”
What will win: “Anatomy of a Fall.” It wouldn’t stun me if director/co-writer Justine Triet’s well-liked courtroom drama upsets the apple cart Sunday and wins best picture. Surely it’ll be many Oscar voters’ second choice, and with the weighted ballots, who knows? But it appears to have original screenplay in the bag.
What should win: “Past Lives.” Beautiful from the first, unheard conversation at the bar to the last, unspoken words just before the car arrives.
NOMINATIONS FOR ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“American Fiction”
“Barbie”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”
What will win: “American Fiction.” Writer/director Cord Jefferson solved nearly all the potentially dated limitations in 20-year-old source material.
What should win: “Barbie.” Stuck, absurdly, in the wrong category — does basing something on a line of dolls constitute an “adaptation”? But either way, funny, rueful, perceptive, humane and alive.
NOMINATIONS FOR ANIMATED FEATURE
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Elemental”
“Nimona”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“Robot Dreams”
What will win: “The Boy and the Heron”
What should win: “The Boy and the Heron”
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Napoleon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
What will win: “Poor Things”
What should win: “Poor Things”
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Napoleon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
What will win: “Poor Things”
What should win: “Poor Things”
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“El Conde”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
What will win: “Oppenheimer”
What should win: “Killers of the Flower Moon”
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST EDITING
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
What will win: “Oppenheimer”
What should win: “Killer of the Flower Moon”
NOMINATIONS FOR MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Golda”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“Society of the Snow”
What will win: “Poor Things”
What should win: “Maestro”
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST SOUND
“The Creator”
“Maestro”
“Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One”
“Oppenheimer”
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“The Zone of Interest”
What will win: “Oppenheimer”
What should win: “The Zone of Interest”
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Creator”
“Godzilla Minus One”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
“Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One”
“Napoleon”
What will win: “Godzilla Minus One”
What should win: “Godzilla Minus One”
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“American Fiction”
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
What will win: “Oppenheimer”
What should win: “Poor Things”
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“The Fire Inside” (“Flamin’ Hot”)
“I’m Just Ken” (“Barbie”)
“It Never Went Away” (“American Symphony”)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
“What Was I Made For?” (“Barbie”)
What will win: “What Was I Made For?” (“Barbie”)
What should win: “I’m Just Ken” (“Barbie”)
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
“The Eternal Memory”
“Four Daughters”
“To Kill a Tiger”
“20 Days in Mariupol”
What will win: “20 Days in Mariupol”
What should win: “Four Daughters”
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
“The Teachers’ Lounge,” Germany
“Io Capitano,” Italy
“Perfect Days,” Japan
“Society of the Snow,” Spain
“The Zone of Interest,” United Kingdom
What will win: “The Zone of Interest,” United Kingdom
What should win: “The Zone of Interest,” United Kingdom
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST ANIMATED SHORT
“Letter to a Pig”
“Ninety-Five Senses”
“Our Uniform”
“Pachyderme”
“War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
What will win: “War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
What should win: “Our Uniform”
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“The ABCs of Book Banning”
“The Barber of Little Rock”
“Island in Between”
“The Last Repair Shop”
“Nai Nai & Wai Po”
What will win: “The ABCs of Book Banning”
What should win: “The ABCs of Book Banning”
NOMINATIONS FOR BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
“The After”
“Invincible”
“Knight of Fortune”
“Red, White and Blue”
“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
What will win: “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
What should win: “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
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