Often overlooked, Kutter Crawford has chance to seize place in Red Sox rotation

Kutter Crawford has always been somewhat overlooked.

A 16th round pick out of Florida Gulf Coast University, Crawford was never viewed as a top prospect coming up through the Red Sox system. Even after earning his place in the big leagues Crawford was frequently overshadowed by his more highly touted peers, yet you could make a case that after Brayan Bello he was the club’s best starter in 2023.

Now heading into 2024, Crawford has a golden opportunity to establish himself as an anchor in the Red Sox rotation.

In a year where Boston’s rotation was in a constant state of upheaval, Crawford emerged as perhaps the most consistent and reliable starter on the staff. He initially opened the season in the bullpen but moved to the rotation in June after Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta were both pulled due to poor performance, and from that point on he started every fifth day for the rest of the season.

By year’s end he’d quietly put together a solid season, ranking fifth on the team and second among all starting pitchers with 2.5 wins above replacement after posting a 4.04 ERA over 129.1 innings.

Though he wasn’t dominant or overpowering, his ability to consistently take the mound turned heads within the Red Sox clubhouse.

“I think a lot of people, including me, have been surprised at the fact that he’s been able to post this season, especially when he started as a reliever,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said prior to Crawford’s last home start in September.

It was especially surprising given Crawford’s recent history.

After making his MLB debut in an emergency spot start late in the 2021 season, Crawford earned a place on the 2022 Opening Day roster thanks to an impressive spring training showing. Once in the majors Crawford had an erratic stint as a reliever before going back to Triple-A, and he later returned as a starter once the rotation was decimated by injury in July.

That month Crawford put together an eye-opening stretch, posting a 2.83 ERA over five starts, but he couldn’t sustain it. He effectively ran out of gas over his last five starts before being shut down due to injury for the final month.

Proving he could stay healthy over an entire big league season was a major step forward. Now Crawford has to prove he can be a true workhorse.

The biggest knock against Crawford last year was his inability to pitch deep into games. In 23 starts he only pitched into the sixth inning nine times and never made it into the seventh. He also only averaged 77.4 pitches per start and topped 90 just five times.

Cora attributed some of those limitations to his abrupt midseason transition from the bullpen to the rotation, but noted that for him to reach his full potential he’ll need to build up enough strength to handle a larger workload.

“That’s the next step, physically build to get to the next level,” Cora said last September. “He knows what he needs to do to accomplish that and we’re excited that he’ll attack the offseason the right way.”

If Crawford can make the leap and become a true innings-eater for the Red Sox, he could dramatically raise the rotation’s potential and validate the club’s decision not to invest heavily in outside additions. Even without the same level of hype as some of his rotation-mates, there’s also good reason to believe his emergence hasn’t been a fluke.

Cora said Crawford boasts some of the best stuff on the team, and that’s backed up by his impressive Statcast metrics, which rank in the top 25% in baseball in almost every category. He limits hard contact, doesn’t walk many batters and his impressive expected ERA (3.25) and Fielding Independent Pitching (3.83) marks suggest he was often victimized by Boston’s poor defense.

For all those reasons and more the Red Sox currently have Crawford penciled into the rotation while Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Josh Winckowski are expected to compete for the last spot. Needless to say Crawford has a big opportunity within his grasp, and if he can take the next step as a starter he could become a mainstay in the rotation for years to come.

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