The Red Sox starting rotation is in a state of flux. The club has already effectively swapped Lucas Giolito in for Chris Sale, and Craig Breslow hasn’t been shy about his desire to add additional outside help.

But at least for now the Red Sox are still largely counting on their in-house arms, and one in particular stands as an intriguing Wild Card.

Since his arrival in 2020, Nick Pivetta has enjoyed some spectacular highs and dreadful lows in Boston. He’s been consistently inconsistent throughout his tenure and last year ran the full Pivetta gamut, with the righty first being pulled from the rotation due to poor performance only to turn things around and re-emerge down the stretch as one of the club’s best pitchers.

Now heading into the new season, what are we supposed to make of Pivetta and what role should he fill in 2024?

Barring an unexpected late flurry of offseason activity, Pivetta projects as a leading candidate to earn one of the last two spots in the Red Sox rotation. Even after being sent to the bullpen last year, he remained one of Boston’s most reliable inning-eaters, and down the stretch he emerged as one of the most overpowering arms in baseball.

Over the course of the second half, Pivetta was one of only five pitchers in baseball who recorded more than 100 strikeouts, tallying 102 over his last 73.2 innings. He did that despite pitching eight of his 16 second-half outings in relief, and his 12.46 strikeouts per nine innings over that stretch ranked third in baseball among all starters.

Pivetta’s advanced metrics were also enticing. According to Statcast,he ranked 93rd percentile in MLB with a 31.2% strikeout rate while also ranking 89th percentile in chase rate and 75th percentile in whiff rate. At his best Pivetta can dominate an opposing lineup, but the trouble is when he’s not at his best there aren’t many who get hit harder.

That’s no exaggeration.

Last year Statcast had Pivetta ranking only 2nd percentile in barrel percentage, along with 20th percentile or worse in average exit velocity (12th), hard-hit percentage (17th) and ground ball percentage (19th). Translation, when hitters got ahold of Pivetta, they smoked the ball, so for him to remain a viable starter he needs to cut down on that hard contact.

We know he has it in him, the question is whether the Red Sox can help him be that guy for an entire season?

Pivetta is exactly the type of pitcher who’d stand to benefit from the new pitching infrastructure the Red Sox are striving to build. By hiring new pitching coach Andrew Bailey and director of pitching Justin Willard, Craig Breslow is hoping to emulate the program he created to great effect with the Chicago Cubs, one that helped turn previously unknown pitchers into impact arms at the big league level.

For what it’s worth, Pivetta is also entering his final year of salary arbitration and will become a free agent at year’s end. If he were to have hit the market this winter he probably wouldn’t have landed a huge deal, but if he breaks out and becomes a monster for the Red Sox this summer, he could be in line for a healthy payday.

Needless to say Pivetta has a lot to prove, and while history suggests counting on him to be a mid-rotation stalwart could be risky, there’s still enough upside to justify handing him the ball.

Sox avoid arbitration, Soto gets paid

Speaking of salary arbitration, the Red Sox reached agreements with each of their arbitration-eligible players ahead of Thursday night’s deadline, avoiding some potentially messy hearings and confirming each player’s salary for the upcoming season.

Pivetta will be paid $7.5 million, exceeding his $6.9 million projection, and new outfielder Tyler O’Neill will make $5.5 million, saving the Red Sox a little over $3 million after Alex Verdugo got $8.7 million from the Yankees. The Red Sox also settled with catcher Reese McGuire ($1.5 million) and reliever John Schreiber ($1.175 million), their other remaining arbitration-eligible players.

Boston Red Sox catcher Reese McGuire throws his bat, as he thinks he has homered, but it was later called foul during an April 5 game at Fenway Park. He’s slated to make $1.5 million this season. (Stuart Cahill/Boston Herald)

Across the game a handful of arbitration-eligible players also landed notable payouts, chief among them Juan Soto, who will reportedly be paid $31.5 million by the Yankees in his final year before hitting free agency. That is a new record for an arbitration-eligible player, beating out the $30 million Shohei Ohtani was paid by the Angels last season.

The Mets will also pay slugger Pete Alonso $20.5 million, and the Brewers settled with ace Corbin Burnes for $15.6 million, avoiding a repeat of last offseason’s acrimonious hearing that Burnes said damaged his relationship with the club.

Projections high on Casas

Triston Casas had a terrific rookie season, finishing third in the AL Rookie of the Year vote after hitting 24 home runs with an .856 OPS. The 23-year-old saw his production skyrocket in the second half, and heading into his second full season he’s projected to take another step forward in 2024.

According to FanGraph’s Steamer projections, regarded as one of the most accurate projection models in the industry, Casas is projected to bat .259 with 29 home runs, 88 RBI and an .857 OPS in 2024. That level of production would rank 30% above league average and put Casas inside the top 25 hitters in baseball, establishing the rising young star as a legitimate middle of the order threat.

Steamer also loves Rafael Devers, pegging the third baseman to bat .285 with 36 home runs, 106 RBI and an .891 OPS. All of those numbers would rank among the best of Devers’ career and put the third baseman among the sport’s elite.

Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas reacts as he scores on a triple by Connor Wong during a game against the Detroit Tigers at Fenway Park on Aug. 13. (Staff Photo/Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Overall the Red Sox have seven players projected to finish with above average seasons at the plate, with Masataka Yoshida and newly acquired Vaughn Grissom each also expected to finish 10-20% better than average. Notably, the projections are down on Trevor Story, who it projects to hit 21 home runs with 78 RBI and 22 stolen bases but with lackluster rate stats across the board.

Those totals would be an improvement over last season, but if Boston wants to turn things around then all of those guys, and especially Story, will need to live up to their potential.

Helton, Wagner on cusp

In a little over a week the Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the results of this year’s vote, but thanks to the tireless efforts of Ryan Thibodaux’s Tracker Team, we have a pretty good idea of how things will shake out.

Adrian Beltre? Take a bow. As of this writing, the five-time All-Star has appeared on nearly 99% of the publicly revealed ballots and should cruise into Cooperstown on his first ballot.

Joe Mauer? Looking pretty good. The longtime Minnesota Twins great is polling at approximately 84% with over 40% of the total vote known. He’s not a lock but right now he should feel great about his chances of joining Beltre as a first-ballot inductee.

As for Todd Helton and Billy Wagner, they’re trending in the right direction too, but one way or another they’ll be sweating it out on Jan. 23.

Right now Helton and Wagner are both clear of the 75% threshold needed for induction, but historically they haven’t fared as well with voters who don’t announce their votes publicly, many of whom they’ll need to win over to earn induction.

Helton, the former Colorado Rockies great, is polling at 83% but has a net gain of zero among returning voters. Wagner, the longtime closer, is at just under 80%, though he’s fared better among returning voters with a plus-six net gain.

Both players have also made gains thanks to first-time voters, but by any measure their candidacies are going down to the wire, and whether or not they clear the bar will be among the most compelling stories of Announcement Day.

Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for Gary Sheffield.

In his final year on the ballot, Sheffield has made impressive gains and is polling right around the 75% mark. He’s netted 10 votes among returning voters, putting him within striking distance of enshrinement, but history suggests it won’t be enough. Last year Sheffield’s final total wound up falling 7.6% short of his pre-announcement figure, so if that trend continues he’ll finish somewhere in the high 60s, meaning he’ll have to wait for a future Era Committee to pick up his case.

Sox rookies coming to Fenway

This week several of the Red Sox top prospects will be invited to Fenway Park for the annual Rookie Development Program, a five-day event that aims to help assimilate young players into the big leagues and prepare them for MLB life.

This year’s program will feature 12 players, including infielders Vaughn Grissom, Marcelo Mayer, Chase Meidroth and Nick Yorke, outfielder Roman Anthony, catchers Nathan Hickey and Kyle Teel, and pitchers Isaiah Campbell, Richard Fitts, Wikelman Gonzalez, Luis Perales and Justin Slaten.

As part of their training, the rookies are all scheduled to speak to the media on Wednesday, which will mark one of the first chances fans will have to hear from the young standouts since the end of the season. Once the program is over, most of the rookies are also scheduled to make the trip down the Mass Pike for next weekend’s Red Sox Winter Weekend, which will be held Friday and Saturday in Springfield.