Willkommen!

The Patriots will kick off their first international game in six years Sunday in Frankfurt, Germany. At 2-7, the Pats are officially fighting for pride against an upstart Indianapolis team (4-5) that has eyes on a surprise Wild Card berth. The Patriots have historically owned the Colts, who are slated as 1.5-point favorites despite playing behind backup quarterback Gardner Minshew.

Last year, the Pats bludgeoned Indy 26-3, when the Colts fielded another backup quarterback, Sam Ehlinger. What will it take to replicate that result overseas?

Here’s what to watch for Sunday:

When the Patriots run

Rhamondre Stevenson is finally finding his old form, breaking seven tackles over the last two weeks and rushing for a 64-yard touchdown against the Commanders. Stevenson found a massive hole behind emerging rookie right guard Sidy Sow and tackle Mike Onwenu on his touchdown. Bill Belichick said this week the Pats are comfortable with Onwenu remaining at right tackle, where he’s balanced the offense’s ability to run behind either tackle spot.

Last season, however, the Colts limited Stevenson to 60 yards on 15 carries. Their run defense has played a bit softer this season, ranking 19th by Pro Football Focus and 23rd by DVOA. If the Pats can block All-Pro defensive lineman DeForest Buckner and linebacker Shaq Leonard often enough, Stevenson could be off to the races once again in Frankfurt.

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When the Patriots pass

Under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, the Colts are among the few teams in the league running a base Cover 3 defense.

Last year, Indianapolis played to their zone-heavy tendencies and almost exclusively rushed four against Mac Jones. This season, though, the Colts may be inclined to change up their approach, with Jones going 10-of-23 for 85 yards, a touchdown and interception versus a bad Washington pass defense when it played man coverage. Jones also noted Bradley has increased his pressure rate this season.

“Coach Bradley does a good job. They are very sound fundamentally, and they’ve been bringing some more pressures and things like that,” Jones said. “It looks like a good defense on film, and they’re very sound. We have to bring our ‘A’ game and really just focus on what we can control.”

If the Colts do play man, look for Jones to target rookie Demario Douglas and Stevenson, his new go-to guys after the loss of Kendrick Bourne. Stevenson, however, will have a challenge facing the NFL’s second-toughest pass defense against running backs.

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When the Colts run

Two years ago, Jonathan Taylor knocked the Patriots out with a late touchdown in a key regular-season matchup that shaped the AFC playoff race. Taylor missed last season’s meeting, but has returned this season and could again do major damage to a beleaguered Pats defense.

Taylor is averaging 3.48 yards after contact this season, one of the highest rates in the league. After a slow debut, he rushed for 75 yards and a touchdown against a stout Cleveland defense, then gashed the Saints for 95 yards the next week. The Colts’ offensive line is also sixth-best run-blocking unit in the league, per PFF.

That O-line also helped Zack Moss thrive in Taylor’s place earlier this season. Thanks to his head start, Moss leads Indianapolis with 615 yards and five touchdowns.

The Patriots’ run defense will need defensive tackles Davon Godchaux and Lawrence Guy to rebound after getting handled too often by Commanders offensive linemen 1-on-1. Linebackers Ja’Whan Bentley and Jahlani Tavai must also tighten up their tackling to prevent Taylor from going the distance when he reaches the second level. Bentley has missed 13% of his tackle opportunities, per PFF, the highest single-season mark of his career since his rookie season of 2018.

When the Colts pass

Belichick will get his first crack ever at Minshew, a wily journeyman with a quick trigger and gunslinger attitude.

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“He’s done a good job really of handling the offense,” Belichick said this week. “Familiarity with (Colts coach) Shane (Steichen), protecting the ball. Just executing the offense, obviously that’s a big part of it. They have good skill players, and a couple of good running backs now – (Zack) Moss and (Jonathan) Taylor are both very productive.

“He does a nice job of making good decisions and getting the ball to skill players.”

At receiver, Michael Pittman (58 catches, 593 yards, 3 TDs) has established himself as the Colts’ clear No. 1 option. At 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds, he’ll pose matchup problems for a smaller Pats cornerbacks group playing without J.C. Jackson. Inside, rookie slot receiver Josh Downs suffered a knee injury last week that prevented him from finishing the Colts’ win at Carolina and practicing on Wednesday. Indy’s next best receiver is Alex Pierce (243 yards), though Minshew has made a habit of targeting Moss and Taylor in the passing game, with 31 catches between them.

Game pick

Colts 24, Patriots 19