Imagine Bill Belichick breaking down the Patriots as an opponent right now.

How does that sound?

Flowery, to be sure. Historically, there’s been a strong correlation between how long Belichick glowingly rambles about the Pats’ next opponent in his weekly press conferences and how crummy that opponent is. Before the Patriots’ rematch with Miami a couple weeks ago, he captured the Dolphins using just four words: “A pretty explosive team.”

Last week, however, Washington received a minutes-long breakdown that touched on the coaching staff, their goal-line defense and even the returners.

So what about the Patriots? They might earn a damn dissertation.

As it stands, the Pats are trending toward becoming the worst team in the league. Offensively, only the Jets and Giants are worse by Expected Points Added (EPA). Defensively, the Pats rank 25th.

The Patriots may never reach the league’s basement, thanks to the injury-plagued Giants and tanking Cardinals. But they did lose Sunday to the Commanders, another franchise that prefers its Sundays served with a side of defeat.

Meanwhile, Mac Jones ranks bottom 10 among starting quarterbacks by most advanced metrics. He’s completed one pass that’s traveled 20 yards or longer in the last month. Granted, not all incompletions have been his fault.

One recently defused bomb belonged to Jalen Reagor, the newest member of the NFL’s worst receiving corps who dropped a 50-yard throw in the third quarter. Reagor received cover for his mistake from JuJu Smith-Schuster, whose butterfingers ultimately cost the Patriots the game. Reagor and Smith-Schuster only ate snaps because the coaching staff starved 2022 second-round pick Tyquan Thornton on the bench after just three drives.

Up front, the Patriots started a practice-squad veteran at left tackle. A career guard stood at right tackle. In between, former first-round pick Cole Strange allowed two hurries, and center David Andrews surrendered two run-stuffs. Rhamondre Stevenson, the only above-average player available, is beholden to this line, a major reason why he failed a run longer than 20 yards before Sunday.

Defensively, breakdowns spread like a fast-moving plague against Washington.

The Patriots got away with two offside penalties and caught on a third. Myles Bryant burned himself on a coverage gamble for a touchdown. Multiple defenders followed the same player in motion pre-snap on another play. Edge-rushers repeatedly zipped by Commanders quarterback Sam Howell with no regard for contain, allowing him to scramble again and again.

Washington runs a simple flare motion sending the RB into the flat pre-snap. Ja’Whaun Bentley and Anfernee Jennings both follow him.

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— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) November 6, 2023

Their corners turned to toast, and the pass rush evaporated (19.7% pressure rate) against Howell, who leads the entire league with 44 sacks. The Pats’ game plan against Washington featured a heavy dose of Cover 0 blitz pressure and two-deep zone. Howell went 8-of-11 for 107 yards and a touchdown against the blitz, and had all day to throw versus two-deep zone

The Commanders comfortably played matchup ball because no one on Belichick’s defensive roster scared them. Belichick’s coaching edge dried up long ago, as evidenced by the Patriots’ penalties (second-most in the league), first-quarter points scored (10th-fewest) and first-quarter points allowed (fifth-most).

The players are at loss for answers. What should change about their mid-week process to generate a different result on Sundays?

“I don’t know, I don’t know,” Andrews answered post-game. “We’ll try to figure that out.”

Which means, yes, it can get worse for one of the worst teams in the league. Here’s what else film revealed about Sunday’s loss:

Mac Jones

24-of-44 for 220 yards, TD, INT

Foxboro, MA – November 5, 2023: New England Patriots Quarterback Mac Jones stands alone after an unsuccessful play in the 4th quarter against the Washington Commanders at Gillette Stadium . (Chris Christo/Boston Herald)

Accurate throw percentage: 65.9%

Under pressure: 2-of-7, 37 yards, sack

Against the blitz: 3-of-5, 11 yards

Behind the line: 6-of-6 for 29 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 15-of-20 for 153 yards

10-19 yards downfield: 2-of-9 for 24 yards, INT

20+ yards downfield: 1-of-6 for 14 yards, TD

Notes: Give him a C-plus.

Jones’ numbers would have spiked were it not for Reagor’s drop and others by Stevenson, Thornton and Smith-Schuster, His audible also led to the Patriots’ only passing touchdown, a play Jones checked to at the line of scrimmage after correctly diagnosing Washington’s man-to-man defense pre-snap. That play aside, his receivers largely failed him against man coverage, catching nine of 22 other passes for 71 yards and an interception.

Then again, Jones had ample protection, seeing pressure on just 17.4% of his dropbacks, and delivered an accurate ball on fewer than two-thirds of his pass attempts. He threw a near pick on consecutive plays in the third quarter, both downfield fields. His inability to hit deeper throws is quietly crippling the offense.

Bill O’Brien handed him another basic game plan comprised of Day 1 install concepts and short throws the Pats ran over and over. To wit: six plays before his bad-luck interception, Jones completed a pass to Smith-Schuster on the same exact route concept that yielded the pick.

The Patriots are running out of players and plays. Jones is as responsible for the trimmed playbook as his receivers, even if his failures are not as detectable.

Critical areas

Turnovers: Patriots 1, Commanders 2
Explosive play rate: Patriots 3.2%, Commanders 7.8%
Success rate: Patriots 37%, Commanders 43%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 1-1, Commanders 1-4
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 19.2%, Commanders 17.4%

Offense

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 83% snaps in 12 personnel, 16% of snaps in 11 personnel, 1% in 21 personnel.***
Personnel production: 5.5 yards/play in 12 personnel, 2.5 yards/play in 11 personnel, 7.0 yards/play in 21 personnel.
First-down down play-calls: 66% pass (5.9 yards per play), 33% run (9.8 yards per play)
Play-action rate: 13%

Player stats

Broken tackles: RB Rhamondre Stevenson 4, WR Demario Douglas 2
Pressure allowed: LT Conor McDermott 4 (sack, 3 hurries), LG Cole Strange 2 (2 hurries), RT Mike Onwenu (QB hit), Stevenson (hurry), Team (hurry)
Run stuffs allowed: C David Andrews 2, Team 2, TE Hunter Henry
Penalties: Henry (pass interference), RB/WR Ty Montgomery (holding on punt return)
Drops: Stevenson, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Jalen Reagor, WR Tyquan Thornton

Notes

Foxboro, MA – November 5, 2023: New England Patriots Hunter Henry can’t get a handle on a pass against the Washington Commanders during their NFL game at Gillette Stadium . (Chris Christo/Boston Herald)

No stat captures the sad state of the Patriots’ passing game quite like this: when Mac Jones passed from three-receiver sets Sunday, he averaged one yard per play. One.
The Patriots activated four wideouts: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, Demario Douglas and Jalen Reagor. Thornton got benched after catching one of his four targets in the opening quarter. Thornton didn’t separate versus man coverage and flashed some shoddy route-running.
Once Thornton hit the bench, that left a sixth-round rookie (Douglas), a practice-squad player on his third team in two years (Reagor) and Smith-Schuster to soak up the rest of the receiver snaps. No surprise, the Pats played from two-tight end personnel on 93% of their snaps in the second half.
Not that Mike Gesicki offered any improvement, catching zero passes against Washington’s man-heavy game plan. He was blanketed on his only target, a deep throw down the middle versus man-to-man in the third quarter. Sunday may have been Gesicki’s worst game as a Patriot.
The Patriots’ numbers versus man coverage bear repeating: 10-of-23 for 85 yards, a touchdown and one interception. The Commanders dared receivers to beat them 1-on-1 on half of the Patriots’ passing plays, and they couldn’t do it.
Demario Douglas had the highest success rate against man, another feather in his cap as the Pats’ best receiver. He won on two slants, a shallow cross and curl route around on screen catch. He finished with 55 yards and 83% of offensive snaps played.
Jones scored his 14-yard touchdown after audibling to a “Smash” route combination against man-to-man. His pre-snap call instructed the outside receivers to run short curl routes while the inside slot receivers ran fades. This ensured 1-on-1 coverage for tight end Hunter Henry, who angled toward the sideline as he ran upfield from the right slot and steered away from the single-high safety.

Aside from finding Henry and Rhamondre Stevenson (13 combined targets) against man coverage, the Pats picked on Washington rookie cornerback Emmanuel Forbes, who had been benched in previous games. But Forbes held his ground, allowing two catches on seven targets and breaking up two other passes.
Smith-Schuster caught five of his six passes in the second half, including a 20-yard shallow cross against zone coverage that Jones unloaded in the face of pressure in the third quarter. Jones had just one other completion against pressure.
Enough with the Smith-Schuster screens. He has no burst left and is averaging fewer than two yards per play on screen catches. Enough.
Time for good news: Stevenson, for a second straight week, looked like his old self. He broke tackles in tight space and open space, then pulled away for the Patriots’ longest play of the season on his 64-yard touchdown.

Stevenson essentially alternated drives with Ezekiel Elliott. While Elliott is a capable back on all three downs, Stevenson offers an appreciable upgrade. Their playing time split should be closer to 2:1.
Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien tried to leverage the defensive attention Douglas has received by motioning him at the snap on Stevenson’s first few carries. It had little impact, as Stevenson went for eight yards on three carries.
Rookie right guard Sidy Sow was the only O-lineman to escape with a clean sheet. Sow has now strung together consecutive strong performances, making one wonder how far along he might be if the team hadn’t worked him at right tackle virtually all summer.
Left tackle Conor McDermott’s four allowed pressures were on par with prior performances from the man he replaced, Vederian Lowe. If Trent Brown cannot recover in time to play Sunday against the Colts, the Patriots will face a major mismatch against All-Pro defensive lineman DeForest Buckner.

Defense

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 40% three-corner nickel package, 30% three-safety nickel, 29% dime, 1% dollar.****
Coverage snaps breakdown: 55% man, 45% zone
Blitz rate: 21.2%
Blitz efficacy: 9.7 yards allowed per dropback, 63% success rate allowed, TD

Player stats

Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. (8) enters the end zone for a touch down in front of New England Patriots linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (8), safety Kyle Dugger (23), and cornerback J.C. Jackson (29) in the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 5, 2023, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Interceptions: S Kyle Dugger
Pass deflections: S Jabrill Peppers 2, DL Christian Bamore 2, CB Jonathan Jones
Pressure: LB Ja’Whaun Bentley  (2 sacks), DL Deatrich Wise 2 (sack, hurry), Barmore (QB hit, hurry), LB Mack Wilson (2 QB hits), OLB Josh Uche (QB hit), S Jalen Mills (QB hit)
Run stuffs: OLB Anfernee Jennings, Team
Missed tackles: S Adrian Phillips 2, LB Jahlani Tavai, Mills, Dugger, Jennings
Penalties: DB Brenden Schooler (facemask, holding), Jennings (offside), Wilson (offside)

Notes

Were it not for a second-quarter fumble and mind-numbing red-zone interception before halftime, the Commanders would have pulled away much earlier.
They finished with 431 yards, a higher success rate and better explosive play rate than the Patriots, who scored thanks only to said fumble and a breakdown in run defense.
Washington’s offense controlled the line of scrimmage, winning in pass protection (sub-20% pressure rate allowed) and on the ground in key situations. They moved the chains on three of four third-and-short runs.
The Commanders thwarted the Pats’ blitz-heavy game plan with a well-disguised package of quick-hitters, and Sam Howell’s extended play brilliance. Facing nine blitzes in the first half, he went 7-of-9 for 74 yards.
Defensive play-caller Steve Belichick pivoted at halftime, calling just two blitzes the rest of the game, but he got burned for a 33-yard touchdown on his final pressure call. When the Pats didn’t blitz, they hardly got pressure.

Howell connected on six pass plays of 20-plus yards, two of which the Patriots allowed with an ineffective or undisciplined pass rush. The others stemmed from: Howell’s ability to extend against a blitz, a perfect throw under pressure to No. 1 receiver Terry McLaurin, poor coverage angles and a bad coverage gamble that allowed the aforementioned touchdown in the third quarter.
Myles Bryant told the Herald he expected a shorter route concept on that play, so he made a late check and flew up to the line of scrimmage. There, he immediately lost to Jahan Dotson’s deeper route that resulted in the score.
Safety Adrian Phillips and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux also dropped into the same short zone as the Patriots failed to time their 5-man rush that included a late-arriving Jabrill Peppers. Breakdowns sprung everywhere.

Godchaux and Lawrence Guy were repeatedly handled 1-on-1 inside, a major no-no for this defense that often asks its defensive tackles to control two gaps.
But no position group cost the Patriots more than the secondary. Phillips and Jalen Mills combined for a missed tackle on Howell’s 24-yard scramble that allowed Washington to convert on third-and-24. Mills also took a bad angle on a 36-yard gain for McLaurin.
Cornerback J.C. Jackson got roasted at the line on a third-and-10 conversion to McLaurin in the second quarter (also on a blitz), while Jack Jones allowed three catches. Both players were benched to start the game, with Jones missing the entire first quarter. Jones did not finish the game.
The secondary also failed to squeeze routes on certain blitzes, most notably with rookie safety Marte Mapu flying down in the first quarter well after the entire right side of the field was vacated on a second-and-10 zone blitz. Washington converted with a 10-yard completion.
Outside linebacker Josh Uche saw just 17 snaps and failed to control his gap on the Commanders’ initial touchdown, a 9-yard run in his direction. All of the Patriots’ recent opponents have jumped at the chance to run at Uche when he enters the game in non-passing situations.

Studs

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

His 129 total yards led all Patriots by a country mile. Stevenson also broke four tackles, one of his highest single-game totals this season.

Duds

WR Tyquan Thornton

Thornton got benched after three series. He couldn’t separate from man coverage and caught one of four targets. Poor route-running contributed to one incompletion, and his only reception came versus zone.

S Adrian Phillips

He played nine snaps and missed two tackles. Phillips’ performance has rapidly declined this season.

Special teams

Four penalties, two poor punt returns and a lost field position battle. At least the rookie kicker has come around.

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Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. Explosive play rate is one of the most strongly correlated metrics with wins and losses.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.  

****Nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs; dollar defense = seven defensive backs.