Massachusetts politics could have a rollercoaster 2024 as Beacon Hill buckles up for the ride
If 2023 is any sort of guide to what will play out on Beacon Hill this year, it’s clear that politicians will have to buckle up for a potential financial rollercoaster with no clear exit path.
From fragile state revenues to finding a way to prepare for a more than $900 million bill for shelters in Massachusetts, taxpayers, lawmakers, and lobbyists are likely gearing up for a 2024 filled with difficult decisions and easy answers that are few and far between.
Expect the opening salvos of the year to focus on fiscal 2025 as Gov. Maura Healey outlines and eventually files her state budget proposal.
With tax collections this fiscal year continuing to come in below expectations, many will be watching to see how Healey shapes her financial plan, including whether state spending will remain flat, grow, or shrink.
Alongside the main budget, Healey has pledged to file early this year a standalone spending bill that attempts to address the emergency shelter system’s $224 million budget gap by using surplus revenues leftover from the pandemic.
Top Democrats in the Legislature have not yet made clear whether they agree with the idea but Republicans have expressed hesitancy. Legislative conservatives will not have the same leverage over the spending bill this time around as they did with a controversial closeout budget in the fall.
A plan to address the shelter system running into the red in 2024 comes as top housing and finance officials said they expect Massachusetts to cough up an estimated $915 million in fiscal year 2025 for emergency assistance shelter and related services.
How lawmakers and the Healey administration plan to cover that tab remains up in the air but in Beacon Hill time, fiscal 2025 is lightyears away.
Fretting over the state’s financial situation will take place during a presidential election year that could see former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.
That’s a matchup not many are excited for and one that could have ramifications for local races in Massachusetts.
The impact might be felt the most in a Senate race for a South Shore and Cape Cod seat that the MassGOP views as particularly competitive with the right candidate but Democrats think they can retain with a well-known local on the ballot who drew an endorsement from Healey.
If the conditions are right, the matchup could be a blockbuster.