By Andrew Moran

U.S. private-sector job creation rebounded last month as employment conditions could be showing signs of improving, according to new data from payroll processor ADP.

Payroll growth at private companies increased by 42,000 in October, the latest National Employment Report, released on Nov. 5, found.

This is up from a decline of 29,000 in September, which was revised and showed 3,000 fewer jobs lost.

The market consensus pointed to a more modest gain of 25,000.

“Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said in a statement.

Last month’s bounce back was driven mainly by trade, transportation, and utilities (47,000). Education and health services also added 26,000 positions, while the financial sector created 11,000 jobs.

However, while the artificial intelligence-driven boom in the tech industry has been at the forefront of a record run in U.S. financial markets, the information services sector eliminated 17,000 jobs in October.

The manufacturing sector shed 3,000 jobs, despite President Donald Trump’s trade agenda aiming to bring factory jobs back to the United States.

Other areas of the U.S. labor market that posted losses included professional and business services (down 15,000), other services (down 14,000), and leisure and hospitality (down 5,000).

Last month’s job creation came from businesses with at least 250 employees, bolstering payrolls by 76,000. Smaller businesses lost 34,000.

Annual pay growth was little changed from the previous month, coming in at 4.5 percent for job-stayers and 6.7 percent for job-changers.

“Pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced,” Richardson added.

In total, this year’s private-sector employment gains have averaged approximately 60,000, although payroll growth has slowed in the second half of 2025.

“Private sector data are becoming more precious as government data remain MIA. In more recent years, the relationship between ADP and BLS [Bureau of Labor Statistics] has improved but both series can be choppy,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

Field of Data

With the government shutdown now in its sixth week, the collecting and reporting of vital economic data have been suspended. This has posed a challenge for investors and policymakers trying to determine the current state of the economy and its overall health.

Absent the monthly nonfarm payrolls report and other government measurements, experts are combing through the plethora of data alternatives.

“The third quarter of 2025 underscored a labor market in flux rather than freefall,” Huntr, an AI job search platform, said in its Q3 Job Search Trends Report.

The firm’s research revealed persistent hiring fatigue, which supported the broader narrative of a low-hiring, low-firing climate.

“The median time to first offer stretched to 71 days in July and 65 in September, signaling a two-month wait for most job seekers and underscoring a persistent hiring slowdown after a brief August rebound,” the report stated.

Demand for labor has slowed amid economic uncertainty.

Jobs site Indeed said employment opportunities plummeted to levels not seen in almost five years in October.

As of Oct. 24, the firm’s Job Postings Index dropped to 101.9—the lowest since early February 2021.

In recent weeks, Federal Reserve officials have expressed concern about the U.S. labor market, although many say that the situation is not spiraling out of control.

“Hiring is slowing. We see this from Indeed, from job postings,” Fed Governor Lisa Cook said. “We’re looking at a panoply of data, and those are real time. We’re not waiting on the unemployment report. There’s reason to be concerned, because there’s a slight uptick in the unemployment rate over the summer.”

Last week, the Fed lowered interest rates for the second straight meeting, lowering the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter point, to a new target range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s biweekly Labor Market Indicators dashboard suggests conditions have come to a standstill.

The unemployment rate was likely flat at 4.35 percent in October. The layoffs and other separations rate was virtually unchanged at 2.09 percent, while the hiring rate for unemployed workers slipped to 45.18 percent.

“Alternative indicators from Revelio Labs, ADP, Challenger, MacroEdge, LinkUp, Indeed, Paychex, NFIB, San Francisco Fed, and state-level jobless claims show a labor market that is still doing well,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Wealth Management, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

“Most importantly, there are no signs of a sudden rise in unemployment for cyclical reasons or AI reasons.”

The next major release is scheduled for Nov. 6. Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas will report on planned job cuts in October by U.S.-based employers.