On paper, the Red Sox pitching staff has loads of potential. It has young talent, proven bullpen arms, tons of depth and enough versatility to adapt to all kinds of unforeseen circumstances.

The one thing missing is a sturdy foundation to hold it all together, and without that the staff is doomed to fall apart just like last year.

More than two months into the offseason we still don’t have any clarity on what the Red Sox starting rotation could ultimately look like. The club has yet to make a meaningful addition, and while many starters have already signed, most of Boston’s top targets are still on the market.

Will the Red Sox land Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jordan Montgomery? Will they wind up with Shota Imanaga or Lucas Giolito, or swing a trade for Dylan Cease or some other young arm? Could we see a combination of the above, or will they come up empty-handed?

The answer to those questions could make or break Boston’s 2024 season.

While we await a resolution to the starting pitching question, the Red Sox have been active filling other needs further down the depth chart. The club has swung four trades since mid-November, acquiring four pitchers and an outfielder in the process, and at this point a picture is beginning to emerge of how the staff as a whole could look once the dust settles.

Again, there’s a lot still to be decided, but here’s an early look at how the Red Sox pitching staff is shaping up.

Projected rotation

Brayan Bello, Chris Sale, [External Addition 1], [External Addition 2], Nick Pivetta

The Red Sox have made it clear they intend to bolster their rotation, and if we get to spring training and that hasn’t happened then something will have gone horribly wrong. For our purposes we’ll take them at their word and presume they will eventually add two outside arms, which would make it much easier to project how all the other pieces could fall into place.

Important as those outside additions will be, Boston’s incumbent starters should play just as big a role in the club’s ultimate success or failure.

Coming up through the system as Boston’s most promising starting pitching prospect in a decade, Bello enjoyed a breakout season and established himself as a legitimate big league starter. The 24-year-old led the team with 157 innings and posted a 4.24 ERA over 28 starts, and those numbers could have been a lot better if not for Bello’s strange tendency to struggle in day games (3.06 ERA at night vs. 6.94 during the day).

If Bello can clean that up and take the next step as a pitcher he could go from a mid-rotation stalwart to a bona fide ace.

As for Sale, at this point it’d be foolish to expect a full season from the oft-injured 34-year-old, but he is currently healthy and enjoying his first normal offseason in five years. There were times last year he showed flashes of his old self, so for as long as he’s able to stay on the mound the Red Sox have to hope he can rediscover his vintage form.

Where the front of Boston’s rotation remains clouded in uncertainty, the No. 5 spot could be among the most fiercely contested roles on the team. As of now Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Josh Winckowski are all set to be stretched out as starters entering camp, and ultimately there may only end up being one rotation spot up for grabs among all of them.

Of that group Pivetta projects as the favorite to earn a spot, because despite bouncing from the rotation to the bullpen and back again he’s still coming off a season in which he threw 142.2 innings and struck out a team-high 183 batters. With his stuff and proven ability to pitch deep into games, he’s someone who could particularly stand to benefit from Craig Breslow’s new pitching program, but if things don’t work out Crawford has also demonstrated he can get the job done.

High-leverage relievers

Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, John Schreiber, Brennan Bernardino

While much of the Red Sox pitching staff remains in flux, the back-end of the bullpen is largely set in stone.

Jansen will return as Boston’s closer after recording 29 saves in an All-Star campaign, and Martin will be the top set-up man after recording one of the most dominant seasons by a reliever in team history. Those two should remain one of the best one-two late-game punches in baseball.

Schreiber also projects as a high-leverage arm. Though he ran into trouble mid-year due to injury, Schreiber remained a monster against righties (.599 OPS) and finished the season strong after a rocky August, wrapping up with a 3.86 ERA from Sept. 1 onwards.

Bernardino was arguably Boston’s biggest success story of 2023, going from a waiver claim to the club’s top lefty with a 3.20 ERA over 55 appearances. Whether he can sustain that success going into next season remains to be seen, but he’s absolutely earned his place.

Hybrid arms

Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Josh Winckowski

The only thing certain about these four is we have absolutely no idea what role they’ll play, which has pretty much been the story of their whole careers.

Will they be starters? Will they be in the bullpen? They’ve all bounced back and forth plenty, and even if each would prefer to pitch out of the rotation there won’t be enough spots to accommodate them all.

Whoever doesn’t make the cut should wind up in the bullpen, where they will serve as dynamic multi-inning weapons with the ability to dominate a lineup in short bursts. Winckowski was one of Boston’s best all-around relievers last season and Whitlock and Houck have both previously served as the Red Sox closer, so if at least three of these guys end up as relievers it’s probably good news for Boston’s pitching staff as a whole.

Must make team

Justin Slaten (Rule 5), Mauricio Llovera and Bryan Mata (out of options)

If we’re assuming the Red Sox bullpen has four locks plus anywhere from two to four hybrid arms who project to pitch primarily in relief, that doesn’t leave many spots up for grabs. The trouble is Boston has three relievers on the bubble who can’t be stashed in the minor leagues, so whether or not they can make the team will be a fascinating story to follow throughout spring training.

Most likely to stick is Slaten, a Rule 5 pick who the Red Sox were locked in on over the Winter Meetings and then traded for after he was scooped up before their selection. Slaten must spend the entire season on Boston’s big league roster, and if he doesn’t he’ll have to be offered back to the Texas Rangers, but the 26-year-old righty was regarded by Baseball America as the best player available in the Rule 5 Draft and boasts a wipeout slider that devastated opposing batters in the minors.

Llovera will also be a contender for one of the last spots. Though his overall numbers weren’t good, Llovera showed flashes at times down the stretch and boasts a strong connection with Andrew Bailey, the new Red Sox pitching coach with whom he previously worked in San Francisco. Llovera is out of options and if designated for assignment would probably be claimed by another club, so he’ll be given every chance to stick around.

The wild card is Mata, a former top prospect who boasts filthy stuff but whose development has been hindered by command problems and frequent injury setbacks. Mata is also out of options and will be moved to the bullpen after failing to emerge as a viable starter, but with a fastball touching 100 mph he’ll be an arm to watch in camp.

Optionable depth

Isaiah Campbell, Cooper Criswell, Joe Jacques, Zack Kelly, Chris Murphy, Brandon Walter, Zack Weiss, Greg Weissert

The majority of these guys will probably start the season in Triple-A, and some could be designated for assignment to clear space for future additions, but it’s a good bet all who remain with the organization will play a role at some point over the course of the long season.

Outside of a terrible August, Murphy enjoyed a successful rookie year and enters 2024 as arguably the No. 2 left-handed reliever in the organization. Kelly should figure prominently into the mix after recovering from elbow surgery in time for the end of the season, and Jacques and Walter had their moments as rookies as well.

Joining them will be a trio of intriguing newcomers who could force their way into the conversation.

Campbell was recently acquired in a trade for Luis Urias and posted a 2.83 ERA in 27 games for Seattle last season as a rookie. Weissert, part of the Alex Verdugo return, had a 4.05 ERA in 17 games with the Yankees, and Criswell was able to draw enough interest to land an MLB deal despite underwhelming numbers with Tampa Bay.

Weiss, claimed off waivers from the Angels last August, could provide added depth as well, as could others not currently on the 40-man roster like recent minor league free agent signings Helcris Olivarez and Jorge Benitez.

Long story short, the Red Sox won’t have any shortage of arms to fill the gaps that inevitably emerge. But as we learned last season, no amount of depth will keep you afloat if the starters can’t do their job and consistently pitch deep into games. That’s the end-all and be-all for Boston, and until the club brings in reinforcements it’s hard to draw many conclusions on how good this staff could ultimately be.