We all know the old adage: April showers bring May flowers.

But what if that month and beyond brings showers that overpower the river, or dry spells that make you wonder where part of the river went?

Frequent Minnesota River Valley visitors may have noticed an up-and-down pattern in recent weeks.

The river level dropped to 7.15 feet on July 26. Just four days later, it flooded to 21.74 feet – over a 14-foot jump. Again on Monday, the river saw a notable drop to 12.68 feet.

It’s expected to go even lower to 8.1 feet by Sunday, according to the National Weather Service’s data from a Jordan gauge.

Ebbs and flows of a river might seem natural to the untrained eye, but Craig Schmidt with the National Weather Service said it’s an indicator of more moisture in the system. It causes floods easily-remembered by area residents.

They’re happening more often and when they occur, they’re to the “extreme,” he said.

No matter what season, the pattern has consistently shown one thing throughout the whole basin: Wet. It’s part of a larger system of concern.

“The long-term trend, if you look over 50 to 100 years? We are getting wetter in all of the upper Midwest,” Schmidt said.

Whether “you want to call it climate change” or not, Schmidt said, these increased and more severe weather patterns are getting more and more noticeable.

WHY IT MATTERS

Much of the consequences of heavy rainfall depend on soil conditions even before the rain hits, or what Schmidt calls terrain.

In recent months he remembered two instances of 8 to 10 inches of heavy rain near different segments of the river.

“Those two storms we got both (were) just really 100- to 500-year storms,” meaning they normally happen every handful of centuries, he said.

From a human perspective, it can be dangerous for drivers. Take the example of a 70-year-old man who died while trying to pass a flooded roadway this June in western Wisconsin.

Though not all floodings result in human casualty, it can still pose a nuisance or danger to pedestrians, homeowners, and commuters. Rains can wash away road surface, he said, but a lot depends on how fast the rain falls, where it falls, and river levels before the flood.

OH RIVER, WHERE ART THOU?

Problems associated with river levels also come in the absence of rain.

“It can only really be a problem if we don’t get rain. If it happens and we end up somehow in a drier pattern that lasts for a month or two,” then the issues start to roll in, Schmidt said.

It’s what’s called a flash drought.

People might not have a sustainable water pump supply, and it can stress crops and plants to the point of larger-scale agriculture issues.

A temporary dry spell hit the area from May to June, he said, giving way to levels that dropped more than people were used to seeing.

Those lower levels are actually closer to normal than we’d think, Schmidt said. During that time, river levels were mostly in a typical flow pattern.

In the past few years, though, Schmidt said high water levels have prevailed as the main issue.

“We were pretty much in a very wet pattern where every few days we get a rain event that keeps things filled,” he said.

“We’ve been very susceptible to these heavy rain events,” he added. “They’re not stopping.”