After tax takings for 2023 came in $2 billion under the previous year and with the global economy nowhere closer to stability, policymakers did not seem the least bit surprised to learn Massachusetts will likely experience a further revenue downturn this fiscal year.

Secretary of Administration and Finance Matthew Gorzkowicz, Senate Ways and Means Chair Michael Rodrigues and House Ways and Means Chair Aaron Michlewitz held a Fiscal Year 2025 Consensus Revenue Hearing on Monday, when they were told they should expect to begin the next fiscal year with far less cash on hand than originally forecast.

“Counting usable millionaire’s tax revenue, we expect the state to close FY24 with roughly $40.7 billion in total tax collection, roughly $700 million below the current benchmark,” Evan Horowitz, the executive director of the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts, told the committee.

That’s actually a conservative number. According to revenue forecasts prepared by the nonpartisan Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, when excluding the surtax takings, the state will end the fiscal year close to $880 million shy of its own revenue predictions.

Despite the size of predicted shortfalls, the news did not seem surprising to the committee, which is understandable considering the state is about half-way through the fiscal year and has already taken in about $350 million less than originally forecast by the same policy group. November’s tax numbers, due out this week, are also expected to miss benchmark, according to the Senate Ways and Means Chair.

Considering that, it was equally unsurprising that before hearing the testimony from economists and tax policy wonks aimed at helping them plan for 2025, the committee chairs took the opportunity to assure voters of the state’s ability to weather any coming financial shortfall, while also acknowledging the uncertainty of the moment.

“We find ourselves at a precarious crossroads. There are storm clouds gathering on the horizon. We’ve faced several months of collections that have fallen below benchmarks. The economy, while strong, is slowing and cooling off in face of high interest rates and other stresses,” Rodrigues said.

Michlewitz said that after years of record revenue takings, the budget planning process will “be an especially challenging endeavor this year” knowing they will begin with a revenue shortfall.

“While this is not a cause for alarm, it will certainly be a key factor as we look forward towards 2025,” he said.

Revenue is expected to grow in 2025, according to MTF forecasts. Excluding revenue gained from the state’s 4% tax on any dollar earned over $1 million, the Foundation predicts the state’s economy add 2.4% over their expectations for 2024.

“FY 2025 tax revenues (excluding surtax) are projected to reach $40.5 billion,” the group wrote, though they add a caveat that their guess is “predicated on the U.S. avoiding a recession as several economic models currently indicate.”

The hearing wasn’t all bad news. Revenue from the millionaire’s surtax — which by law must be spent on transportation and education costs — is expected to eventually bring in double the cash estimated by budget writers before the law went into effect. The fiscal 2024 budget forecast about $1 billion would be collected under the tax; the Department of Revenue now predicts it could bring in upwards of $2 billion by the end of this fiscal year, and even more in 2025.

The law is already responsible for the state’s new free school meals law, dozens of infrastructure projects, and fixes planned for MBTA, a spokesperson for the group behind the surtax said. And that was before lawmakers learned the law was surpassing expectations.

“Just a year after voters passed the Fair Share Amendment, they are already proving the naysayers wrong. And with today’s announcement that Fair Share revenue is exceeding initial estimates, voters can expect even more transportation and public education improvements that will help make Massachusetts more affordable, competitive, and equitable,” Raise Up Massachusetts spokesperson Andrew Farnitano said in a statement.