Twenty missing ballots in an extremely close Minnesota House election were likely thrown away and will likely “not be recovered,” the Scott County Attorney’s Office reported Wednesday.

The outcome of the District 54A race between DFL Rep. Brad Tabke and Republican challenger Aaron Paul could determine the control of power in the House of Representatives.

On Wednesday, Scott County Attorney Ron Hocevar said that while the county’s preliminary investigation into the 20 missing ballots in the Shakopee-area race is ongoing, the discrepancy is “likely to be the result of human error” that occurred during the counting of early absentee ballots between Oct. 17-18.

The preliminary investigation determined that officials likely forgot to remove ballots from a “secrecy envelope” — which contain absentee ballots labeled with voter information — before discarding them. After suspecting this to be the case, officials were reportedly told the envelopes had already been shredded.

“This unfortunate situation resulted in a level of confusion that should not have occurred,” Hocevar said. “In the interest of full transparency, we have included a link to the information provided to the attorneys for both candidates this morning. It’s important to note that the investigation is ongoing and we hope that more information will be forthcoming.”

(The 20 missing absentee ballots were in Precinct 10. A 21st missing absentee ballot was in Precinct 12A, but elections administrators believed that discrepancy could be explained by a voter checking in but not voting.)

Republicans announced Tuesday that they will challenge the results of the Shakopee race, questioning whether it could sway the majority of the currently tied House (67-67) in their favor.

Scott County conducted a Nov. 21 recount in the District 54A election, and those results — which don’t include the missing ballots — were confirmed at the county canvassing meeting on Monday. Initially, the recount showed Tabke picking up one vote to lead Paul by 15, but after the canvassing board considered four challenged ballots, Tabke maintained a lead of 14.

Following Wednesday’s update from Scott County, House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, said the revelation affirmed the party’s intentions to challenge the election results in court.

“Today’s news confirms why we will be seeking an election contest to protect the integrity of the vote in District 54A with a new election,” Demuth said. “With 20 ballots missing and confirmation from Scott County that they will likely not be recovered, it’s impossible to declare a winner with a 14-vote margin. We appreciate the efforts by Scott County to investigate this matter and be transparent about their findings.”

Demuth said in her statement that House Republicans are expected to formally file the election contest as early as Friday.

Minnesota Public Radio News noted that the precinct where the mishap occurred voted strongly for Tabke in the certified tally. He won with almost 58% of the vote.

Even if the 20 ballots could be located, Paul would need to net nearly all of them – 18 — to overtake Tabke.

The House will be in a partisan tie in January if this year’s election results hold, and leaders of both parties continue to negotiate power sharing. But District 54A isn’t the only race where Republicans are pursuing legal action to challenge the results.

In District 40B, which covers parts of Roseville and Shoreview, Republican Paul Wikstrom has filed a lawsuit challenging the residency of DFL opponent Curtis Johnson.

A partial recount Monday in House District 14B confirmed Rep. Dan Wolgamott, DFL-St. Cloud, defeated Republican challenger Sue Ek. The Sherburne County recount found Wolgamott won by 190 votes — one fewer than the initial count.

The DFL retained its one-seat majority in the Senate. And DFL Gov. Tim Walz will remain in office after his defeat on the Democratic presidential ticket with Vice President Kamala Harris.

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