Care to guess how many games the Patriots have won at Miami since the Obama administration?

Try … one.

Hard Rock Stadium remains the Pats’ proverbial house of horrors, a place even Tom Brady posted a losing record over his legendary career. The 3-8 Patriots are not expected to buck that trend this weekend, slated as 7-point road underdogs heading to South Florida. But one reason for optimism?

Drake Maye.

In his sixth career start last Sunday, Maye went 30-of-40 for 282 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Maye has now faced a variety of defenses and has yet to play like a rookie against any of them, despite facing a 40.8% pressure rate. Of course, it’s possible Maye stumbles in Miami.

But it’s also possible the Pats pull an upset, ending the 4-6 Dolphins’ playoff hopes and matching their win total from last year with five games still to go.

Here’s what to watch for in Miami:

When the Patriots run

If offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt wants to reinforce a clock-killing, run-first identity Sunday, this game should offer the perfect opportunity to do so.

Over the past four weeks, no defense has allowed more plays per drive than Miami’s. Overall, the Dolphins rank 26th in run defense by DVOA. Though their run defense has tightened the last two weeks, they also allowed 7.9 yards per carry in their last meeting with the Patriots.

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) reacts to being defeated by the Miami Dolphins 15-10 in an NFL football game on Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)

That day, running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson both ripped off runs longer than 20 yards that day, though Stevenson has shown less wiggle lately, forcing only seven missed tackles the last three games. If the Pats can clear room by blocking defensive lineman Calais Campbell and linebacker Jordyn Brooks, who lead Miami in run stops, they should have a big day.

“We’ve got a tall task, but I think it starts with running the football,” Maye said Wednesday. “They’re going to mix up some looks, so just taking what they give me, and be smart protecting the football.”

When the Patriots pass

Last week, the Pats hit a new season high for passing yards by doing the simple things well.

They targeted their best pass-catchers.

They ran a higher rate of play-action.

They attacked the middle of the field.

Look for a similar game plan on Sunday. The Dolphins defense ranks 29th at defending the middle of the field by DVOA, an area where Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas, the Pats’ leading pass-catchers, should eat. Last week, they combined for 122 yards on just six catches.

The key will be staying ahead in the first quarter and on first down. Lucky for the Pats, they rank ninth in EPA per play in first-quarter passing since Maye took over as the starter.

One note: the Patriots may have pass protection trouble on Maye’s blind side, with recent injuries to left tackle and left guard Michael Jordan.

When the Dolphins run

Foxboro, MA – Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert reacts as New England Patriots’ Christian Elliss is called for pass interference during the 4th quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium . (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

This is what killed the Patriots back in Week 5.

Miami steamrolled their defense over 80 yards, 15 plays and more than seven and a half minutes during a game-winning touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins finished with 193 rushing yards, the first of several Sunday body blows the Pats’ defense has taken this season against the run. The Pats are still a bottom-5 run defense by DVOA.

Running back De’Von Achane is Miami’s leading rusher with 530 yards, three touchdowns and a 4.3 yards per carry average this season. The Patriots will need more from their defensive linemen and linebackers, especially with starting D-tackle Daniel Ekuale dealing with a bone bruise on his elbow and Christian Barmore still limited as he ramps up from missing the first half of the season with blood clots.

When the Dolphins pass

Since returning from another concussion four weeks ago, Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has brought life back to this offense.

Related Articles

New Patriots: Getting to know Austin Hooper, who likes messing with Drake Maye

Patriots’ Jabrill Peppers’ trial set for January on assault, drug charges

Patriots’ final injury report of week brings bad news with surprise new ailment

Patriots return one pass rusher, another sits at Friday practice before Dolphins game

Patriots narrowing Cole Strange’s focus on one position in return

Tagovailoa is completing a league-best 73.4% of his passes this season, using his quick release and deadly accuracy within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage to let speedy Dolphins receivers to do damage in space.In recent weeks, Miami is one of the most efficient offenses in the league by success rate. Lately, Tagovailoa’s targeted ex-Patriots tight end Jonnu Smith, who enjoyed a 100-yard receiving day last weekend in a win over the Raiders.

“I think the first thing is you have a bunch of receivers, and now even putting the back and Jonnu in there as well, they have good run-after-catch ability,” Mayo said. “The quickness (with which) the ball comes out — and giving those guys an opportunity to run — is definitely a strength of Tua’s.”

Back in Week 5, the Pats shadowed All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill (44 catches, 523 yards, three touchdowns) with top corner Christian Gonzalez on key passing downs. Could we see that matchup again?

And don’t forget about Achane, who leads the team with 46 catches, and dangerous speedster Jaylen Waddle (33 catches, 404 yards and a touchdown).

Game pick

Patriots 21, Dolphins 20