By Andrew Moran

The March jobs report, scheduled for release on April 3, will mark the end of a quarter defined by wild swings in the U.S. labor market. Economists project that about 60,000 new jobs were added last month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4 percent.

If those estimates are accurate, payrolls grew by about 94,000 in the first quarter of 2026—an improvement over the 61,000 jobs added during the same period a year earlier.

Health care and private education will likely be the leading categories for job creation, says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.

“In March, we anticipate that the jobs rebound will be in the health care and private education categories with modest gains in construction and goods-producing sectors,” Brusuelas said in an April 1 note.

“The government sector will continue to function as a net drag on overall hiring.”

Hiring has been concentrated in health care since April 2025. With 355,000 new positions over this span, health care has accounted for the majority of job creation.

The same trend was observed in ADP’s latest National Employment Report, which found that health care and education remained the top sources of employment growth in March, adding 58,000 jobs.

“Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said in a news release.

Private employers added 62,000 jobs in March, higher than the consensus forecast of 40,000, the payroll processor reported.

Government employment has been steadily falling since President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. In total, federal payrolls have receded by more than 300,000.

Market watchers do not expect the war in Iran to impact employment conditions in the March data. However, the effects from the five-week-old conflict could appear in the April and May figures, Brusuelas noted.

But a solid reading could be bad news for financial markets, warns Tom Essaye, president and co-founder of Sevens Research Report.

“Risks for this number aren’t one-sided, and a very strong number could also pressure stocks because it could boost expectations that the next move for the Fed will be a rate hike, not a cut,” Essaye said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

While traders have recently scaled back their forecasts for an interest rate hike later this year, the 11 percent spike in crude oil prices on April 2 could reignite expectations of a quarter-point increase to tame inflation.

For now, the base case is that the Federal Reserve will leave rates higher for longer, CME FedWatch data show.

Claims, Layoffs, and Hiring

A flurry of employment data can provide further insights into the health of the labor market.

One key positive trait of the employment situation is that firms continue to refrain from large-scale layoffs.

For the week ending March 21, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits declined to 202,000, according to new Department of Labor data released on April 2.

A sign reads “help wanted, server, now hiring” at a restaurant in St. George, Utah, on Sept. 15, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

This is down from the previous week’s upwardly revised 211,000 and below the market estimate of 212,000.

The four-week average for initial jobless claims, which removes week-to-week volatility, eased to 207,750.

Recurring jobless claims—a measure of the number of individuals currently receiving unemployment benefits—edged higher to 1.841 million, from the previous week’s downwardly adjusted 1.816 million.

Economists use this statistic as a proxy to gauge the challenges workers may face in finding new employment. Additionally, it can also signal expiring jobless benefits since many states cap eligibility at 26 weeks.

March’s planned job cuts by U.S. employers ticked up from February but were firmly below the previous year’s numbers, according to global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas.

Layoff announcements totaled 60,620 last month, representing a 25 percent jump from the 48,307 cuts in the previous month. But they are also down 78 percent from the 275,240 planned job cuts in March 2025.

In the first three months of 2026, layoff patterns are emulating what occurred early last year, says Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray and Christmas.

“Removing the wave of federal layoffs announced in February and March of last year, job cut announcements in 2026 are closely following the pattern of 2025. Last year it was Government, Retail, and Technology. This year, it’s Technology, Transportation, and Healthcare,” Challenger said in a news release.

Technology was the top industry for job cuts, totaling almost 19,000 last month. Year tondate, the sector has announced more than 52,000 planned layoffs.

The numbers will likely increase in the coming months as several major tech companies are reducing headcount, including Dell, Meta Platforms, and Oracle.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the top reason for layoffs in both the tech industry and elsewhere, Challenger noted.

“Companies are shifting budgets toward AI investments at the expense of jobs. The actual replacing of roles can be seen in Technology companies, where AI can replace coding functions,” he said.

“Other industries are testing the limits of this new technology, and while it can’t replace jobs completely, it is costing jobs.”

The pharmaceutical, education, financial, and automotive sectors were among the other industries reporting a decline in personnel.

Hiring plans, meanwhile, have been steadily rising this year.

In March, they surged 157 percent to 32,826—up 149 percent year over year. Automotive, as well as entertainment and leisure, led all industries in hiring efforts.