By Tom Ozimek

Oil prices dropped and stocks around the world rallied on April 1 on renewed hopes of a quick end to the Middle East war after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States could be leaving Iran in two to three weeks, with or without a deal.

The front-month Brent contract for June fell $1.06, or 1 percent, to $102.91 per barrel at about 7 a.m. ET, having dropped to a session low of $98.35. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May slipped $1.44, or 1.4 percent, to $99.94 ​per barrel, after falling to $96.50 earlier.

“Oil prices fell after U.S. President Trump signalled a potential end to the war with Iran,” ING analysts said in an April 1 note.

Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher on Wednesday, building on their biggest one-day jump in nearly a year in the prior session, fueled by positive sentiment around a possible end in sight to the Middle East conflict. On opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.6 points, or 0.12 percent, to 46,396.12, the S&P 500 climbed 28.0 points, or 0.43 percent, to 6,556.56​, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 152.2 points, or 0.70 percent, to 21,742.795.

Trump told reporters on March 31 that the United States could leave Iran within two to three weeks, suggesting an agreement with Tehran may be reached but is not required for the conflict to end.

He also urged U.S. allies to secure their own energy access through the Strait of Hormuz, the key oil transit waterway that Iran has been blocking, driving up energy prices and fears of shortages and a deeper economic crisis.

After Trump’s earlier calls on NATO allies to help U.S. forces reopen the strait went unheeded, he said on Tuesday that they should “build up some delayed courage,” do it themselves, and secure their own energy supplies.

ING analysts said that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, clearing the backlog of vessels would take time, and that energy production and export would normalize “only gradually rather than immediately.”

Trump on April 1 announced that Iran’s president wants a cease-fire, giving further support to risk assets, with U.S. equities pushing higher in early trading.

Global Stocks Rebound

South Korea’s Kospi recovered its losses from earlier this week, surging 8.4 percent to 5,478.70, while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 5.2 percent to 53,739.68, as of around 3:30 a.m. ET on April 1. A survey by Japan’s central bank, released on April 1, showed improved sentiment among major Japanese manufacturers despite concerns over the Iran war.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 2.2 percent to 25,339.45, while the Shanghai Composite index was trading 1.5 percent higher at 3,948.55.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 2.2 percent to 8,671.80, while Taiwan’s Taiex climbed 4.6 percent, and India’s Sensex rose 1.7 percent.

Wall Street futures were up around 0.5 percent as of 6:40 a.m. ET.

Some analysts said that the lingering effects of the war could persist even after the conflict ends, though a halt to the fighting would almost certainly mean more upside for equities.

“De-escalation hopes have given markets a lift, but we think the effects of the war would, in many cases, persist even if the war did end soon,” Thomas Mathews, head of markets at Asia Pacific at Capital Economics, wrote in an April 1 research note.

“It’s worth thinking through how markets might fare if the war were to end ‘very soon.’ Do markets have further to recover if sentiment continues to improve? The answer is almost certainly yes.”

Inflation Pressures Build

The Iran war has rattled global energy markets. U.S. gas prices jumped past an average of $4 a gallon on March 31, the first time since 2022.

Inflation in the eurozone surged from 1.9 percent in February to 2.5 percent in March due to higher energy costs, which have pushed pump prices up by 15 percent in the euro area over the past month.

“Consumers expect another rough ride,” ING analysts said in a March 31 note, pointing out that inflation expectations in the eurozone have surged to levels only seen in the early 1990s and during the first half of 2022.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House on March 31, 2026. Alex Wong/Getty Images

Trump told UK newspaper The Telegraph in an April 1 interview that he is seriously reconsidering U.S. membership in NATO, saying that his request for assistance in the Strait of Hormuz was a test that allies didn’t pass.

Describing the alliance as a “paper tiger,” Trump said removing the United States from the pact was now “beyond reconsideration.”

His remarks built on U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s comments on Tuesday that Washington must reexamine its relationship with the alliance because members didn’t help the United States in the conflict, now into its fifth week.

The White House said that Trump will deliver a public address on Wednesday evening on the Iran war.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.