Skyrocketing energy bills have emerged as a third rail among ratepayers in Massachusetts, as residents increasingly cite them as a major contributor to the state’s high cost of living.

More than 20% of respondents to a recent Suffolk University poll said utility bills were the single largest strain on their household budgets.

But now, some on Beacon Hill will tell you that relief from energy-bill sticker shock is at hand, now that the long-awaited, hydro-powered electricity source from Quebec has arrived.

The New England Energy Connect (NECEC) line, a project initiated in 2017 under the Baker administration that has faced years of regulatory hurdles, cost overruns and political battles, is now positioned to be one of the region’s largest power sources.

At least, that’s what we’ve been told – or sold.

The NECEC line is supposed to deliver 1,200 megawatts of hydropower from Quebec province to New England over 20 years, according to the project agreement, providing Massachusetts with about 20% of its overall electricity.

The clean energy line, whose cost ballooned from $1 billion to about $1.6 billion, is expected to deliver about $3 billion in net benefits to Massachusetts energy customers and overall reduce “ratepayer bills by around $50 million each year,” according to state officials.

But those impressive macro figures boil down to a paltry annual savings of about $18 to $20 per customer over the contract term.

Avangrid, the parent company behind the NECEC, has estimated the project will cut carbon emission by 3.6 million metric tons a year, “the equivalent of removing 700,000 cars from the road.”

Hydro-Quebec, a nationalized corporation owned entirely by that province, gets its power from a network of 500,000 lakes and 4,500 rivers that cover 22% of the land’s surface area, according to the company. The water is harnessed from watersheds and managed reservoirs.

Yet all these environmental benefits and negligible savings are predicated on Quebec’s ability to produce hydropower sufficient to meet a portion of Massachusetts’ energy needs.

Most people probably don’t realize that a major power line already existed between New England and Quebec.

Known as Phase II, grid operator ISO New England recently indicated that it serves as the region’s predominant source of electricity.

But recently, Phase II has been exporting – not importing – energy to Quebec.

That’s because Quebec’s water supplies have significantly diminished due to three years of severe drought conditions.

According to Esri Canada, a provider of geographic information system software, heading into the new year, 86% of Canada’s Central Region, which includes Quebec province, was classified as Abnormally Dry or in Moderate to Extreme Drought.

As the Boston Globe reported, that puts Hydro-Quebec in the delicate position of preserving enough power to serve its domestic customers, while also meeting contractual requirements of the NECEC and another power line opening soon in New York state.

All that means that if the push of the drought comes to shove, Canadian customers come first.

It seems those hatching this deal to purchase clean hydropower from Quebec never contemplated how a changing climate could affect that equation – an irony not lost on those who opposed this proposition from the start.

Sentinel and Enterprise

Editorial cartoon by A.F. Branco (Creators Syndicate)