MINNESOTA vs. WISCONSIN

When: 2:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Huntington Bank Stadium
TV: FS1
Radio: KFAN, 100.3 FM
Weather: 23 degrees, accumulating snow, 10 mph south wind
Betting spread: Wisconsin, minus-1.5

Records: The Gophers (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) gave up 22 unanswered points in a 38-35 loss to Northwestern at Wrigley Field last Saturday. The Badgers (4-7, 2-6) knocked off a ranked opponent for the second time in three weeks with a 27-10 home win over then-No. 21 Illinois last weekend.

History: The longest rivalry in college football will be played for the 135th time. The Gophers are 63-63-8 all-time since 1890. Minnesota has won three of the previous four meetings, losing 28-14 in Minneapolis in 2023.

Stat: 500. The average total yards the Gophers defense has given up over the past three contents, including games against Michigan State and No. 8 Oregon. Over a season, that would be dead last in the nation.

Big questions: Can QB Drake Lindsey step up in his second rivalry game? The redshirt freshman played his worst game at Iowa (three interceptions) in October, but played his best at Northwestern (four touchdowns, no INTs) last week. Also, can the Arkansas native get the job done in his first cold-weather game?

Key matchup: Wisconsin run game vs. Gophers rush defense. The Badgers ran for 209 yards and three scores against the Illini, while an unsound Gophers defense gave up 220 and two TDs to the Wildcats.

Storyline: A defeat for the Gophers will sting more than just losing the Axe. It would mean the letdown of a .500 record and open up the chance of going to the Detroit bowl (again). On the other side, a Badgers win would be an end-of-season bounty after a gauntlet schedule led to a second straight losing season.

Who has the edge?

Gophers offense vs. Wisconsin defense: The Badgers’ defense is more stout against the run (3.3 yard per carry; 21st in nation) than the pass (7.9 per attempt; 111th in country). Minnesota has been slightly better through the air and will likely need to hit on a handful of explosive plays to win as a slight home underdog. … Both Illini coach Bret Bielema and Gophers OC Greg Harbaugh singled out “Number 22” or edge rusher Mason Reiger. “Excellent,” Harbaugh said of the Louisville transfer who has a team-high 40 pressures and five sacks. He likely will have more success against RT Dylan Ray, who has allowed a team-high 25 pressures. … RG Tony Nelson stepped in for Marcellus Marshall  against Northwestern, and it appears likely the U will stick with him for Wisconsin. … WR Javon Tracy’s three-touchdown game at Northwestern was the program’s first for a receiver since Rashod Bateman in 2019. Coaches are excited about the Miami (Ohio) transfer’s ceiling in his senior season in 2026. EDGE: Badgers

Gophers defense vs. Wisconsin offense: The Badgers are on their fourth QB this season, and true freshman Carter Smith has not been lighting it up. He had 98 yards, one TD and one INT in a 31-7 loss to No. 2 Indiana, and 75 yards without a pick or TD against Illinois. … Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck credited the Badgers for adjusting its offense to fit changing personnel; that includes adding an option run game. Smith is athletic enough to keep it, with a long run of 16 yards. … RB Darrion Dupree had his best game last week, with 17 carries for 131 yards and two TDs, including an 84-yarder for six. … DC Danny Collins’ unit has struggled coaching young players to be in the right spot at the right time, which is allowing recent opponents to stack up explosive plays. … There’s an indication CB John Nestor is more likely to return than LB Devon Williams; both vets missed the Wildcats game because of injuries. If Williams — who has been the U’s leading tackler — can’t go, true freshman Emmanuel Karmo and redshirt sophomore Matt Kingsbury will likely get more playing time. EDGE: Badgers

Special teams: Big highs and lows from the Gophers last week. Koi Perich’s burst on a 93-yard kick return boosted the U’s early comeback. He had 137 on more yards on five other returns. But kicker Brady Denaburg fell to 2 for 7 this season on field goal attempts longer than 40 yards, including a game-tying attempt from 40 vs. Northwestern. Denaburg’s big leg on kickoffs should keep it away from Vinny Antony II, who had a 95-yarder vs. Alabama. … Wisconsin’s Nathanial Vakos is 7 for 11 on FGs this season. EDGE: Gophers

Prediction: The Badgers are on the upswing, the Gophers swooning. Minnesota’s defense has been unreliable lately, but Wisconsin’s offense has plodded most of the year. The U offense continues to struggle to run the ball, and stopping it is a Badgers strength, but Lindsey should be able to make a few more plays through the air to win it. Gophers, 17-16

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