Rural Minnesota sees population growth as urban counties shrink

Rural counties in Minnesota are experiencing population growth halfway through the 2020s, reversing a decade-long trend of decline, according to data from the Center for Rural Policy and Development.

The nonprofit research organization based in Mankato found that throughout the 2010s, rural counties in the state saw steady population losses. However, following the COVID-19 pandemic, more people have moved into rural communities than have moved out.

The trend is not the same in Minnesota’s urban areas. Between 2020 and 2023, Hennepin and Ramsey counties experienced a net loss of more than 87,000 residents, meaning more people moved out than moved in.

Kelly Asche, a senior researcher with the Center for Rural Policy and Development, pointed to workforce challenges and federal policy changes that have expanded the types of care seniors can receive.

“It used to be just used for nursing home care, but they opened that up to allow for payment in assisted living as well as home health care, really expanding that bucket,” Asche said.

Minnesota’s aging population also plays a role in shifting migration patterns, Asche said.

“We’re an older state. We’re in the frost belt. Migration isn’t as big of a deal as natural changes in Minnesota, but how that trickles down to rural versus metro is quite a bit different,” he said.

Despite recent population growth, the report estimates that peak demand for nursing home beds in Minnesota’s rural counties is still more than a decade away.

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