Minnesota’s initial voter turnout estimates appear lower than 2020 general election

Minnesota came out of Tuesday’s general election with an unofficial estimated voter turnout of 76%, a full 3% lower than the 2020 presidential election statewide turnout of 79% but higher than 2016’s 75%.

The secretary of state’s estimates are calculated on 2024 estimates of eligible voters (4.3 million) and ballots cast (3.3 million). About 1.3 million absentee ballots had been distributed as of Nov. 4, and 1.17 million had been accepted. This makes initial reports of absentee voters consistent with 2016’s 26% mark, but lower than 2020’s 58% mark.

As of 7 a.m. on Tuesday, Minnesota had 3.7 million registered voters, meaning almost 400,000 registered voters either did not vote or their ballot wasn’t counted, in this year’s general election.

It’s unknown whether Minnesota has reclaimed its spot for the highest voter turnout in the country. States like Arizona where the ballot is abnormally long this year, and Nevada where ballots can be returned up until Nov. 9, create delays for election results.

However, the national average in 2020 was around 66% for the 2020 election, which would make Minnesota well-positioned to be above the national statewide average if the U.S. stays in this range.

Minnesota created new laws this voting cycle that could have affected voter turnout, such as returning absentee ballots in person by 8 p.m., language accessibility for polling places, or the addition of 57,000 votes after voting rights to formerly incarcerated individuals were restored in 2024.

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