Patriots-Bengals film review: Inside the Patriots’ biggest upset in 8 years

Score one for Jerod Mayo.

For the new-era Patriots.

And for the old-school Patriot Way.

That gritty, calculated, bruising, clever, doubt-us-if-you-dare, underdog brand of football that birthed a dynasty.

The Patriots out-fought and out-coached a more talented Bengals team in their season opener, complementing a sharp defensive plan with conservative offense to claim a 16-10 win. Mayo told the world how the Pats planned to pull off the upset. Then they did it.

Sunday marked the franchise’s first win as a two-score underdog since 2016, and seventh this century. The other six were claimed in 2000 and 2001. You remember that magical ’01 campaign, another season that opened in Cincinnati.

These Patriots, of course, are not those Patriots. They don’t reside in the same hemisphere.

But the signs that surfaced Sunday, hinting the Pats might again develop into a tough, smart, and clutch football team, are the greatest hope for their rebuild until Eliot Wolf can restore the roster talent to a contending level. This was no ordinary win.

What Mayo managed in his NFL coaching debut was to kill two birds Belichick never did after Tom Brady left: win as a two-score underdog, and win a statement game on the road.

Now, some context: the Bengals stink in season openers. Since 2019, Cincinnati is 1-10 in games played in Weeks 1 and 2.

The Pats also caught them at an ideal time health-wise. Joe Burrow played like Mac Jones circa 2022, skittish and gun-shy, working his way back from a wrist injury; Tee Higgins sat with a bad hammy; a leaky run defense missed a few of its best run-stuffers.

But good luck does not nullify good play. The two often go hand in hand, and especially in the NFL. Take the breaks when you can.

The Patriots won. They deserved to win. And if their defense maintains its midseason form – not to mention whips up another shrewd game plan that made Burrow turtle on Sunday – the Pats might just move to 2-0.

Here’s what else the film revealed about the Patriots’ Week 1 win:

Jacoby Brissett

15-of-24 for 121 yards, sack

New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7) carries the ball during the first half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Emilee Chinn)

Accurate throw percentage: 68.2%

Under pressure: 4-of-8 for 38 yards, sack and 36 rushing yards

Against the blitz: 2-of-2 for 22 yards

Behind the line: 2-of-2 for 3 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 11-of-15 for 86 yards

10-19 yards downfield: 2-of-4 for 32 yards

20+ yards downfield: 0-of-1

Notes: Brissett did his job.

Excluding one near-pick before halftime that he lofted under pressure, Brissett protected the ball. He scrambled four times for 34 yards to sustain drives. He checked out of bad plays and into better looks.

The Patriots need a stabilizer at quarterback, a game manager who stays out of his defense’s way. Brissett was that stabilizer Sunday. He had a couple overthrows, particularly on the move, which undercut their bootleg play-action game. Brissett also threw short of the sticks on multiple third downs.

The Patriots will need Brissett to be more accurate and aggressive downfield, particularly against good teams. But following the run-heavy game plan, and how he performed under pressure against a creative pressure team, this was a passable, winning effort.

Critical areas

New England Patriots cornerback Marcus Jones (25) breaks up a pass intended for Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Trenton Irwin (16) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Jeff Dean)

Turnovers: Patriots 0, Bengals 2

Explosive play rate: Patriots 4.8%, Bengals 4.2%

Success rate: Patriots 44%, Bengals 43%

Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 1-4, Bengals 1-2

Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 25%, Bengals 43%

Both of Cincinnati’s lost fumbles led to Patriots field goals. Those six points were the difference in the game.

Otherwise, the Bengals matched the Pats in every area most closely correlated with winning. The Patriots should feel good about the clean performance they had and needed in order to win. But if Cincinnati feels it gave the game away, it’s hard to argue.

Offense

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) scores on a 3-yard touchdown run during the first half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Jeff Dean)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 57% of snaps in 11 personnel, 29.5% snaps in 12 personnel, 13.5% snaps in 13 personnel.***

Personnel production: 46% success rate in 11 personnel, 50% success rate in 12 personnel, 62.5% success rate in 13 personnel.

First-down down play-calls: 76% run (47% success rate), 24% pass (50% success rate)

Play-action rate: 17.2%

Bully ball. This was the game plan, plain and simple.

The Patriots pounded the rock to kill the clock, keeping possession for more than 34 minutes, the fifth-highest mark in Week 1. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt deployed a sixth offensive linemen for at least one play on most possessions – and to great effect. The Pats posted a 71% success rate on those snaps, 13 runs and one pass.

If there’s a critique of the coaching staff, it’s Van Pelt getting too conservative in the second half. The Pats ran the ball on their last 10 first-down plays and scored just six points in the process; including a field goal drive that started on Cincinnati’s 24-yard line.

The Bengals also found effective counters to the Patriots’ base outside zone scheme, which led Van Pelt to mix in more man-blocked concepts (duo and power-O) immediately after halftime. The one play or personnel grouping Cincinnati couldn’t stop was the aforementioned jumbo set. The Pats finished the game rushing for five, nine, three and nine more yards behind six O-linemen, with rookie offensive tackle Caedan Wallace lining up at tight end on each play.

In the passing game, Van Pelt limited his play-action calls more than expected; likely a lack of confidence in his offensive line’s ability to protect for long-developing pass plays. Brissett worked from a menu of quick-hitters and three-level sideline concepts that stretched the defense, but led to only one pass attempt longer than 20 yards.

Player stats

New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7) hands the ball off to running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) during the first half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Broken tackles: RB Rhamondre Stevenson 10, RB Antonio Gibson 2, QB Jacoby Brissett, TE Austin Hooper

Pressure allowed: LT Vederian Lowe 4 (1 QB hit, 3 hurries), LT Chukwuma Okorafor 3 (1 QB hit, 2 hurries), RG Layden Robinson 3 (2 QB hits, 1 hurry), Team 2 (2 QB hits), LG Michael Jordan (hurry)

Run stuffs allowed: Team 4, Robinson 1

Drops: None

Notes

Rhamondre Stevenson was exceptional. The driver and engine of this game plan. He generated 118 rushing yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus, and forced 10 missed tackles.
Stevenson touched the ball on more than half of his snaps (28 of 51). Imagine where the offense would have been without him.
Up front, Jerod Mayo heaped post-game praise on the offensive line for owning the line of scrimmage. That praise deserves context, and to be parsed out.
Overall, the O-line run-blocked better than it pass-protected, allowing pressure on more than 40% of Jacoby Brissett’s dropbacks. Brissett also got hit on 25% of passing plays.
Either rate would be untenable over a full season, and especially when an opponent blitzes just twice, as Cincinnati did Sunday. The Bengals bet their four-man rush, led by three-time Pro Bowler Trey Hendrickson, would get home, and they were mostly right.
Right tackle Mike Onwenu and center David Andrews both posted clean sheets in pass protection and run-blocked effectively. Everyone else’s tape had warts of varying size.
Left tackles Chukwuma Okorafor and Vederian Lowe combined for seven pressures allowed. The coaching staff benched Okorafor before the first quarter was over and inserted Lowe, who played the rest of the game.
Rookie right guard Layden Robinson surrendered three pressures, including a team-worst two QB hits. Though fourth-rounders deserve some grace and kudos for clearing space on their team’s only touchdown, as Robinson did, teaming with Andrews and Onwenu in the second quarter.

Left guard Michael Jordan, a promoted practice-squad player, took every snap and was a pleasant surprise. He was a less effective run-blocker than Robinson, but more consistent in pass protection.
Out wide, all of the top four wide receivers – K.J. Osborn, Tyquan Thornton, DeMario Douglas and Ja’Lynn Polk – saw between 35 and 40 snaps in an obvious rotation. None starred.
Brissett did seem to favor Osborn, and especially in critical situations (see: four third-down targets and another in the red zone). Osborn’s six targets at least doubled every other receiver’s total.
The Patriots ought to scheme more targets for Douglas, their most dynamic player in space and best option versus man coverage. On his first catch, he converted a first down pulling away for nine yards running a shallow cross.
Encouraging stat of the game: Brissett went 7-of-10 for 65 yards versus man coverage. The Pats have ranked among the worst passing teams versus man-to-man for years.

Defense

New England Patriots safety Jaylinn Hawkins (21) celebrates with teammate linebacker Oshane Ximines after recovering a fumble during the second half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 42% three-corner nickel package, 31% three-safety nickel, 27% dime.****
Coverage breakdown: 60% zone, 40% man
Blitz rate: 15.6%
Blitz efficacy: 20% offensive success rate and 3.0 yards per play allowed

Hats off to DeMarcus Covington.

The Patriots’ rookie defensive coordinator turned Burrow into a Checkdown Charlie and had him seeing ghosts at the end, even though the pass rush rarely got home.

There were two keys to the Pats’ plan.

Key No. 1: spinning the dial with an abnormally high percentage of two-high coverage. The Patriots have long ranked among the league leaders in single-high coverage, a structure that lends itself to Cover 1 (a man-to-man defense) and Cover 3. In his final years, Belichick preferred a man-to-man defense.

But on Sunday, roughly half of the Patriots’ defensive snaps featured two-high zone coverage, even on first-and-10. The Patriots lived out of Cover 2 and sprinkled in some Cover 6, where two defenders cover each a deep quarter of the field and another is responsible for the opposite deep half. This two-high focus discouraged Burrow from looking deep and forced a Bengals offense working without Higgins and a limited Ja’Marr Chase to march the length of the field.

They couldn’t do it.

Key No. 2: shadowing Chase with Christian Gonzalez, who allowed three catches for 15 yards as Chase’s primary defender. Overall, Chase ran 20 of his 28 routes against the Patriots’ emerging star corner, per ESPN. But the beauty wasn’t in the simplicity of the shadow – it was in the changeups Covington called around it.

Even as Gonzalez followed Chase from sideline to sideline, and occasionally into the slot, it was never a given the Patriots were in man-to-man. Sometimes, Gonzalez dropped into a deep-half zone within Cover 2, or down the middle as the “pole runner” filling the space between the deep halves. The Patriots cycled defenders’ alignments pre-snap and assignments post-snap within the same handful of calls to give the illusion of a complex plan, while sticking to the same handful of calls.

Covington also timed his blitzes well, making Burrow go 2-of-4 for 20 yards with a sack against extra pressure. Even better, the Pats held Burrow to 4-of-12 for 41 yards and two sacks around a defensive pass interference penalty when they played man-to-man.

Again, this was a defense in midseason form.

Player stats

Pressure: DL Keion White 4 (2.5 sacks, hurry), OLB Joshua Uche 2 (2 hurries), LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (0.5 sack), DL Deatrich Wise (hurry)
Run stuffs: LB Jahlani Tavai
Pass deflections: DB Jonathan Jones, S Kyle Dugger, Tavai
Missed tackles: S Jabrill Peppers, Dugger, Tavai

Notes

New England Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers (5) celebrates as he walks off the field after an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, in Cincinnati. The Patriots won 16-10. (AP Photo/Jeff Dean)

If you’re looking for the backbone of the Patriots’ defense, these are their names: Gonzalez, Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers and Ja’Whaun Bentley. All four played 100% of the team’s defensive snaps.
Dugger supplied the Play of The Game, forcing a fumble at his own 2-yard line that stopped a touchdown and may have swung the game. Of note: the Bengals targeted him twice in man-to-man coverage during critical situations, something that bears watching moving forward.
Close behind the core four in playing time were defensive lineman Keion White and defensive back Marcus Jones, both around 80%. Jones impressed in his first action since last September, earning a fumble recovery and playing tight man-to-man.
Jones has effectively replaced Myles Bryant as the glue guy of this secondary, someone who can flip between nickelback and safety within the same drive and allow the Patriots to play three-corner nickel personnel or three-safety nickel personnel without substituting.
That versatility unlocks most of the Patriots’ defensive calls without having to play matchups, though it remains to be seen how well Jones can hold up over an entire season.
When the Patriots did deploy a third traditional safety, it was free-agent addition Jaylinn Hawkins, who impressed in his team debut. He showed great awareness before a third-down sack in the first half.

On the play, Hawkins called out an incoming pick-route combination intended for Chase, who had gone in motion with Gonzalez trailing. With Chase charging in his direction at the snap, Hawkins effectively switched assignments with Gonzalez and took Chase, forcing Burrow to tuck the ball and eat a sack that triggered a punt.
Veteran corner Jonathan Jones forced another change of possession with a hard hit in the third quarter that stopped a fourth-and-2 play. Though it’s fair to wonder why the Bengals didn’t run the ball from that distance, particularly with the Patriots in dime personnel (six defensive backs).
Up front, Cincinnati found some success running at defensive tackle Daniel Ekuale and White in the second half, perhaps a function of White and Ekuale tiring over 80 and 73% of snaps played, respectively. Ex-Pats offensive lineman erased White on the Bengals’ lone touchdown.
Prior to this season, Ekuale had been a third-down specialist. Now, the Pats are counting on Ekuale as a starter, giving him more snaps than starting nose tackle Davon Godhcuax.
Edge rushers Deatrich Wise and Joshua Uche are starting the season as rotational role players behind White. They combined for three pressures.
As for White, he played across the defensive line and showed marked development with his hand usage and patience as a rusher. His best sack, of the 2.5, was a long-arm rush into right guard Alex Cappa, which walked Cappa back into Burrow who went down like a sack of dirt.
The Patriots missed just three tackles, an excellent number for Week 1, and 10 fewer than Cincinnati.

Special teams

New England Patriots place kicker Joey Slye (13) kicks a 37-yard field goal during the second half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

A terrific performance. One of the Patriots’ best special teams games in years, even if it started with an illegal formation.
Long snapper Joe Cardona forced a fumble on punt coverage that set up a field goal.
Kicker Joey Slye was 3 of 3 on field goals, something Chad Ryland managed once all of last year.
Bryce Baringer dropped three of five punts inside the 20, and the punt team finished with a net average of 45.6 yards per punt.
Core special teamer Brenden Schooler posted three special teams tackles and overcame multiple double-teams. Per Next Gen Stats, Schooler hit 22.65 MPH covering the first punt, the fastest speed reached by any player in Week 1.

Studs

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) celebrates after scoring on a 3-yard touchdown run during the first half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

The best game he’s played in almost two years, third-quarter fumble notwithstanding. Stevenson totaled 118 rushing yards after contact, per Pro Football Focus, the second-highest of his career. He demonstrated vision, patience and burst, splitting 10 tackles.

DL Keion White

The Patriots are counting on a Year 2 leap from White, and he delivered. He tallied 2.5 sacks, plus a hurry. White’s 80% of defensive snaps played were unusually high for a defensive lineman.

RT Mike Onwenu

Running the ball behind Onwenu, the Pats averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Onwenu was effective in both man and zone-blocking schemes, and didn’t allow a single pressure in pass protection. He looked like the Patriots’ best O-lineman Sunday.

Duds

OT Chukwuma Okorafor

A disastrous opener for Okorafor. The coaching staff pulled him in the first quarter after he allowed three pressures in 12 snaps. He generated no push in the run game. Okorafor may only be a right tackle-only option moving forward.

CB Marco Wilson

Nitpicking here, but Wilson made a strong case for his dozen snaps to go elsewhere. In that playing time, he allowed one catch and got flagged for a defensive pass interference penalty that cost the Patriots 20 yards.

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Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 15-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. After turnover margin, explosive play rate is the metric most strongly correlated with winning.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs; goal-line defense = three defensive backs; dollar defense = seven defensive backs.

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