No convention bump for Harris; still leads by 4 points, Morning Consult poll shows
It seems the excitement seen at the Democratic National Convention hasn’t spilled over into extra support for the party’s candidate, though it has resulted in better buzz.
According to a Morning Consult poll of over 7,000 registered voters, 48% of those surveyed prefer the sitting vice president take the Oval Office in January 2025 over 44% for the 45th President. That sounds like good news for team Harris, but it’s also no different from the pollsters last large poll and comes after the widely-watched convention.
“Surveys conducted in the three days that followed the Democratic National Convention in Chicago show Harris leading Trump 48% to 44%, unchanged since last week and tying a record high set earlier this month. Harris has not trailed Trump in a single daily tracking survey since we first updated this page with their head-to-head matchup in late July,” they wrote.
Despite no change in the number of supporters, pollsters say the “Harris Honeymoon” continues as she leads Trump in “net buzz,” with far more voters saying they’ve heard or read something popular about the vice president and negative things about the former president.
“For the fifth week running, voters remain more likely to say they heard something positive (47%) than negative (32%) about Harris by a double-digit margin. That 15-percentage-point margin for Harris is the best net buzz rating she’s posted in surveys conducted on a weekly basis since November 2022. What voters hear about Trump, meanwhile, has trended slightly more positive over the past two weeks since dipping to 20 points underwater at the beginning of August,” they wrote.
Gov. Tim Walz, the democratic nominee for the vice presidency, is currently the most popular candidate on the ticket, with a net 6% favorability rating, up from 4% ahead of the convention. Walz continues to be the least known candidate.
Morning Consult’s findings are in line with a poll conducted by Florida Atlantic University’s Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab and Mainstreet Research USA, which showed Harris up by four points and “significant shifts in the 2024 U.S. presidential race” since she took the reins of her party.
That poll of more than 900 likely voters, found “U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former U.S. President Donald Trump nationally, with 47% of voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 43%. Among likely voters, Harris leads 49% to 45%.”
“Since her elevation to the top of the ticket, Vice President Harris has effectively appealed to women voters, and the gender gap has become more pronounced,” Luzmarina Garcia, an assistant professor of political science at FAU, said with the poll’s release. “Harris has also reestablished the Democratic Party’s advantage with minority voters.”
In a memo to reporters, Trump’s campaign said that the polls, at this point in the cycle, can be misleading about the eventual outcome.
“Gallup had Michael Dukakis up 17 on then-Vice President Bush in the immediate aftermath of the DNC. Most polls had John McCain up 2 to 4 points on Barack Obama in 2008 the week after the RNC. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 7-points on President Trump after her convention in the RCP average. We all know how those ended up,” they wrote.