Callahan: How different will the Patriots look in 2024?

For a 24th straight New Year’s Eve, Bill Belichick reigned as the Patriots’ head coach and general manager.

But for the first time in Robert Kraft’s ownership, a tenure that spans three decades, the Patriots entered the holiday having clinched back-to-back losing seasons.

So what will New Year’s Eve look like next season in Foxboro?

If Kraft parts with Belichick, dominos will fall throughout the organization, toppling key members of the front office and coaching staff. Players continue to prepare and play hard for Belichick, as evidenced by their performance in Sunday’s 27-21 loss at Buffalo after gifting four turnovers in the first half. Nonetheless, his fate feels uncertain, something Belichick himself has expressed to those close to him in recent weeks, according to a team source.

If Belichick stays, it’s likely Kraft will force some concessions, as he did last year pushing for Bill O’Brien’s hiring after the offense collapsed under Belichick’s watch with Matt Patricia in 2022. Would Belichick surrender his control over the roster to remain as head coach?

In any scenario, change should sweep through the roster like never before. Start with the offense.

In a production meeting before Sunday’s game, Belichick reportedly pointed to quarterback play when asked about the team’s mini turnaround (going 2-1 in their last three games). To that point, Zappe had protected the ball, Belichick told CBS analyst Trent Green, and gotten the ball out quickly. He’d also hit most open receivers.

DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 24: Quarterback Bailey Zappe #4 of the New England Patriots warms up prior to the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High on December 24, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

Basically, he’s checked every basic box of replacement-level quarterback play. But neither Zappe nor Mac Jones is capable of serving as the face of the franchise. The Patriots will need a new quarterback next year.

The same holds true for their receivers. The Pats field the league’s worst crew of wideouts, a unit further weakened by JuJu Smith-Schuster’s placement on injured reserve Saturday and DeVante Parker’s new ribs injury Sunday. Former second-round pick Tyquan Thornton caught his multiple passes for the eighth time in 22 career game appearances, a number almost as bad as his healthy scratch in Miami two months ago.

The Pats’ offensive line has remained a weakness for two straight seasons and churned through five lead coaches in as many years, facts that are inseparably intertwined. Sunday was a new low, however, for left tackle Trent Brown, who got benched after being removed from the team’s injury report. After holding up the Pats’ offensive line for the first half of the season, during which time the team added incentives to his contract, Brown has proven increasingly unreliable.

Without Brown, the offense worked behind rookie guards Sidy Sow and Atonio Mafi, center David Andrews, right tackle Mike Onwenu and backup tackle Vederian Lowe. All five fought hard, paving the way for a late fourth-quarter touchdown for Ezekiel Elliott. But considering Onwenu is set to hit free agency, only Andrews should be considered a lock to return in 2024.

Healthy-scratch Trent Brown has caused Patriots issues for weeks

Speaking of free agency, the Patriots are projected to hold the third-most cap space in the NFL this spring at more than $70 million. They should find quick fixes for their receiving corps and offensive line there, but long-term solutions lie with the draft. Who will make those picks?

Director of player personnel Matt Groh could see a new role or leave with Belichick if Belichick is forced to find a home elsewhere. Internal candidates to take over the front office include director of scouting Eliot Wolf and Steve Cargile, head of the pro personnel department. Ex-Patriots executives Dave Ziegler and Jon Robinson are also floating out there with GM experience.

Whoever’s in charge is unlikely to open the 2024 draft by selecting three straight defenders or multiple specialists, as the Patriots did last year. Most key defensive starters are under contract through 2024, save for safety Kyle Dugger. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who looked like a budding star before his season-ending shoulder injury, and defensive tackle Christian Barmore are bricks upon which the Pats can build another elite defense.

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Barmore is also eligible for a contract extension this offseason, as is running back Rhamondre Stevenson. Other contracts to keep an eye on: assistant coaches.

Regardless of whether Belichick stays, Jerod Mayo succeeds him or an outside candidate arrives, multiple assistants are in contract years, per sources. It’s possible the Patriots will clean house on special teams regardless of the contact statuses of assistant head coach Joe Judge, special teams coordinator Cam Achord and special teams assistant Joe Houston. That phase has failed them, too, including another missed field goal at Buffalo.

At the end of another unprecedented losing season, the franchise’s future remains as uncertain as ever.

But odds are, by this time next season, the Patriots will be celebrating the New Year with a brand new team.

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