A year ago, the Patriots’ season ended with a painful trip to Buffalo.

In their shared regular-season finale, the Bills pulled away with a 12-point win that killed the Pats’ playoff hopes and punctuated a season defined by dysfunction. Almost 12 months later, the Pats are again headed to Buffalo with a ball-and-chain offense. But now, there’s nothing to lose.

Their postseason dreams died weeks ago. The team has rallied around a new quarterback with a few road wins, most recently upsetting the Broncos in Denver. A repeat of that performance won’t be good enough to beat the Bills, but might the Bailey Zappe Patriots be building to something?

Will they play like a team with nothing to lose? Here’s what to watch for in Orchard Park:

When the Patriots run

Last Sunday’s win at Denver marked a severe step back for what had been one of the most consistent run games in the league all season.

Ezekiel Elliott averaged 2.3 yards per carry, while the Patriots failed to crack 60 yards total. Injuries to starting left tackle and left guard Cole Strange sapped some of the offensive line’s power and ability to create running room. It’s possible the O-line never returns to that level of performance, but the Pats must maintain some level of

One matchup to monitor: center David Andrews versus Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Andrews has not surrendered a pressure or run-stuff in four straight weeks, but did not face Oliver, a Pro Bowl talent, in the October meeting.

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When the Patriots pass

Motion. Motion. Motion.

Last time against Buffalo, the Patriots stressed Buffalo’s defense with an atypically high rate of motion both before and at the snap. The Pats averaged 10.6 yards on plays with motion at the snap, which they used on 24% of their snaps; by far a season high. Through that motion, offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien dressed up the same quick-game pass concepts and run-pass-options (RPOs) to stay unpredictable while forcing the ball out of the quarterback’s hands versus a deep Bills pass rush.

If Zappe can trigger as fast as Mac Jones did that day — averaging 2.2 seconds from snap to throw — he should cook. There is one other major key, though, as Zappe explained Wednesday when discussing Buffalo’s coverage disguise: “Like coach always says, you can’t make any yards until I get rid of the ball. So, that’s going to be up to me to kind of see what they’re trying to do. It’s going to be hard because those guys play really well.”

Expect the Pats to feature rookie slot receiver Demario Douglas underneath (74 total yards in their previous meeting) and attack the Bills deep. Zappe is coming off a 5-for-5 performance on long balls at Denver. Buffalo also ranks sixth-worst at defending the deep ball by DVOA.

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When the Bills run

Under interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the Bills have leaned into the run more than they did before firing Ken Dorsey. That’s put more on the plates of running back James Cook and Josh Allen.

Cook cracked 1,000 rushing yards last week in a close win over the Chargers, another game where Buffalo weaponized Allen on designed runs. Allen has scored 13 rushing touchdowns and will be a threat on designed runs any time the Bills find themselves in short-yardage situations or the red zone. Their offensive line has also gelled, now ranked seventh by ESPN’s run-block win rate and 12th at run-blocking by Pro Football Focus grades.

Back in October, the Pats limited Cook and Co. to 84 yards 21 carries. Cook’s ability to break tackles could prove problematic for the Pats, who saw eight whiffs last week between starting linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai. Lucky for them, starting nose tackle Davon Godchaux tends to save his best for the Bills.

Buffalo has taken the brunt of Godchaux’s highest-graded game from each of the last three seasons, per PFF, and suffered five hurries, plus a quarterback hit at his hands.

When the Bills pass

New matchup, same problems.

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Allen has become almost Belichick-proof, owning the highest passer rating of any quarterback to make more than five career starts or attempt at least 200 passes versus his defense. The Bills are also 6-2 versus the Patriots in the last three years. It’s not just Allen’s rocket arm or ability to extend plays or scramble, He is willing to fit any throw in any window — and often succeeds.

Still, his far-and-away favorite target remains Stefon Diggs, who has 69 more targets than any other Bills receiver. Blanketing Diggs (96 catches, 1,070 yards and eight touchdowns) should be a top priority, even as he works opposite another big-play threat, Gabriel Davis, who’s averaging 16.1 yards per catch. Both players will post mismatches any time the Patriots are in man-to-man coverage, as might tight end Dalton Kincaid (62 catches).

And don’t forget about the running backs. Since Brady took over, their target shares have doubled close to 25%, which allows Cook more room to make defenders miss and shed would-be tacklers.

One way to short-circuit all that? Pass rush. With Christian Barmore coming off a three-sack performance in Denver, where Josh Uche also tallied five pressures, the Pats may ultimately need more of the same to upset Buffalo once again.

Game pick

Bills 27, Patriots 13